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Choosing services. The case for cost-effectiveness. Toby Ord Research Fellow, Oxford University President, Giving What We Can. Key services. Universal coverage is defined in terms of access to key services
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Choosing services The case for cost-effectiveness Toby Ord Research Fellow, Oxford University President, Giving What We Can
Key services • Universal coverage is defined in terms of access to key services • Countries moving towards universal coverage must therefore identify what services are key • Also need to prioritize among these key services when expanding the range of services accessible at an affordable cost
Examples • Typically targets the whole population or the part which is least likely to obtain affordable access to a comprehensive package • Package of minimum, basic, or essential services or benefits • Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda, Vietnam, Mexico • Typically emphasize: • Vaccination, child health, maternal care
Cost-effectiveness • Sounds boring, but it is the core of what health systems are about • Effectiveness = health benefit • Cost-effectiveness = providing the most health benefit for a given budget • We typically measure health benefit in DALYs • A measure of the years of life saved and morbidity prevented
Cost-effectiveness • Some interventions deliver much more health benefit for a given budget • It is not a matter of 10% better or 50% better • but hundreds or thousands of times better • It isn’t the only important thing, but it is the core
What does a DALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy £20,000 / DALY barrier
What does a DALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmissionduring pregnancy
What does a DALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmissionduring pregnancy
What does a DALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmissionduring pregnancy Distribution of condoms
What does a DALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmissionduring pregnancy Distribution of condoms
What does a DALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmissionduring pregnancy Distribution of condoms Distribution of bed nets
What does a DALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmissionduring pregnancy Distribution of condoms Distribution of bed nets
Dramatic differences in cost-effectiveness (DALYs per $1,000)
Facts about the CE distribution • If you funded them equally, the top 20% would produce 80% of the value • The best intervention is 10,000 times better than the worst • The best intervention is 100 times better than the median • If you choose two at random, on average one is 100 times better
How important is cost-effectiveness? • Prioritizing on cost-effectiveness is: • The difference between saving a life and saving 100 lives • Failure to prioritize on cost-effectiveness is: • Letting 100 die to save 1 • ‘Not seeing the forest for the trees’ • Squandering 99% of the value we could produce • Wasting public funds • Unfairly privileging the few at the expense of the many • Helping the rich or powerful at the expense of the poor • Example: spending $1m on dialysis instead of on DOTS • Buying 20 years of life for some at the expense of 20,000 years for others
The biggest moral issue in global health • Not the most exciting • Not the most philosophically interesting • Not the most technically interesting or challenging • But the core of the issue • (Actually securing large amounts of good health for the public) • It should be the starting point for priority setting
Other concerns (GPS Health) • Severity of health condition • Realization of potential • Past health loss • Rarity of health condition • Socio-economic status • Area of residence • Sex and gender • Race, ethnicity, religion • Productivity • Care for others • Catastrophic health expenditure
Quantitative combinations of criteria Basic approach 0 4 7 9 2 1 3 5 6 8 Cost per DALY (multiples of GNI / capita)
Quantitative combinations of criteria Basic approach 0 4 7 9 2 1 3 5 6 8 Cost per DALY (multiples of GNI / capita) UK approach (NICE) 0 4 7 9 2 1 3 5 6 8
Quantitative combinations of criteria Basic approach 0 4 7 9 2 1 3 5 6 8 Cost per DALY (multiples of GNI / capita) Overlap Approach 0 4 7 9 2 1 3 5 6 8