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Global Climate Change Negotiations: A Perspective on Intergenerational and Social Equity

Global Climate Change Negotiations: A Perspective on Intergenerational and Social Equity. P.R. Shukla. NORTH-SOUTH EQUITY: UNFCCC. Article 3.1 “common but differentiated responsibilities” Article 3.2 Special attention and considerations for parties :

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Global Climate Change Negotiations: A Perspective on Intergenerational and Social Equity

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  1. Global Climate Change Negotiations:A Perspective on Intergenerational and Social Equity P.R. Shukla

  2. NORTH-SOUTH EQUITY: UNFCCC Article 3.1 • “common but differentiated responsibilities” Article 3.2 Special attention and considerations for parties: • “that would have to bear a disproportionate or abnormal burden under the Convention” • “vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”

  3. Carbon Emissions per Capita (1993) 7 6 5 4 Carbon emissions per Capita (tC/cap) 3 2 1 0 EU12 India Japan USA China Africa Canada Australia Other Asia Former USSR Other Europe Latin America

  4. Historic CO2 and Methane Contribution 1800-1988 (%)

  5. EFFICIENCY: UNFCCC Article 3.3 “policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost”

  6. Why Delay Mitigation Actions? Future Generations shall be: • Affluent • More Capable • Knowledge • Technologies

  7. BURDEN SHARING AGREEMENT:Developing Country Concerns • UNFAIR BACKGROUND CONDITIONS • ASYMMETRY OF EMISSIONS & IMPACTS • UNFAVOURABLE TIMING

  8. Intergenerational Concerns • Total Burden Sharing • Mitigation • Impacts • Risks (including extreme events) • Minimize Welfare Losses • Burden Sharing based on Income

  9. Equity Principles: The North - South Divide South • HISTORICAL RESPONSIBILITY • BASIC NEEDS • OBLIGATION TO PAY • ABILITY TO PAY • RAWLSIAN CRITERIA • PER CAPITA ENTITLEMENTS (EGALITARIAN) North • EFFICIENCY (MARGINAL COST) • GRANDFATHERING

  10. Cumulative Carbon Emissions(1991 to 2100) for IPCC - IS92 Emission Scenarios Emissions Cumulative Emissions: 1991 - 2100 Scenario (Giga Ton Carbon) IS92a 1500 IS92b 1430 IS92c 785 IS92d 975 IS92e 2187 IS92f 1845

  11. Cumulative Carbon Emissions (1991 to 2100):“S” and “WRE” Concentration Stabilization Trajectories Cumulative Carbon Emissions(GT Carbon) Stabilization “S” Trajectory “WRE” Trajectory Target 450 ppmv628 714 550 ppmv 872 1043 650 ppmv1038 1239 750 ppmv 1194 1348

  12. Mitigation Needed for Stabilization(from 1990 to 2100) Stabilization Mitigation Needed Target for IS92 Case (Billion Tons of Carbon) 450 ppmv 872 -786 550 ppmv 628 - 457 650 ppmv 462 - 261 750 ppmv 306 - 152

  13. Convergence of Per Capita EmissionsConventional Concept 2.0 Industrial Countries Emission Profile Convergence Target 0.7 0.3 Developing Countries Emission Profile 2050 2000 2100 Years

  14. Equitable Convergence 2.0 Industrial Countries Emission Profile Convergence Target Convergence Target 0.7 0.3 Developing Countries Emission Profile 2000 2050 2100 Years

  15. Gain/Loss for India under Different Permit Schemes 80 • Distribution matters • India’s gains/ losses can be several % of GDP 60 Per capita 40 20 US$ Billion (1993) 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 -20 -40 Grandfathered -60 -80

  16. PROTOCOL WITH INCOME BASED ENTRYAND TECHNOLOGY CONDITIONS EQUITY CRITERIA • Non- Annex I enters when income (in PPP) equals 2020 Annex I Income TECHNOLOGY CONDITIOS(Annex I to implement after 2020) • New Fossil Power Plants to scrub and dispose carbon from exhaust • New Synthetic fuels to capture and dispose carbon released in conversion WHEN SOME NON-ANNEX JOIN IN? • China in 2045; India in 2062 EFFICIENCY • 30 percent expensive than most cost-effective mitigation

  17. SEPARABILITY OF EQUITY AND EFFICIENCY • COASE THEOREM • Stipulates • in absence of transaction costs, market exchange will lead to efficient resource allocation regardless of distribution of rights • Implies • the process of minimizing burden size is independent of the burden sharing scheme

  18. SEPARABILITY OF EQUITY AND EFFICIENCY • COASE THEOREM: • TWO INTERPRETATIONS • 1. Neo-Classical/ Northern World View • Equity is irrelevant to global co-operation 2. Developing Country Perspective • Efficiency is simple - just needs agreeing on instruments. • Equity (sharing of burden) is vital

  19. Sharing the Burden 1.Stabilization Burden shall be substantive 2. Significant mitigation shall be in NA-I (“Where” Flexibility for Cost Effectiveness) 3. Transition from Cost to Welfare Effectiveness (“Justice” in Burden sharing is vital)

  20. Conclusions: A Fair Agreement • Burden Sharing • Explicit Burden Sharing Regime Fair Competition • Polluter Pays • Market Price for CDM Mitigation • Minimize Welfare Losses • Ability to Pay • Compensation for Impacts Precautionary Principle • Hedge against extreme events • Protect most vulnerable

  21. “It is the nature and the advantage of strong people that they can bring out the crucial questions and form a clear opinion about them. The weak always have to decide between alternatives which are not their own.” Dietrich Bonhoeffer German Philosopher, anti-Nazi thinker (executed in Flossenburg concentration camp, April 9, 1945)

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