230 likes | 397 Views
Recent Developments in the Angolan Economy. Recent Developments in the Angolan Economy. Angola was affected by two events that caused unexpected shocks to the macroeconomic context. Effects on Fiscal Account. Effect on Privat Sector. Performance of the Economy.
E N D
Angola wasaffectedbytwoeventsthatcausedunexpectedshocks to themacroeconomiccontext ... • Effectson Fiscal Account • EffectonPrivat Sector Performance oftheEconomy
Thetransmissionofprices takes placeaccording to theschemebelow AccumulationofPendingissues in the Financial Market ReductionofDebt Sales LessForeignCurrencyEntry FallofOilPrices Fall in thedomesticsupply (ImportedInputs) Risks in Stock Maintenance PRESSURE IN DOMESTIC PRICES Fall in externalsupply (Imports)
Fiscal Policy - Therising deficit pusheddomesticdebt, andmayhavepushedprivateinvestmentaway. IssuanceofTreasurySecurities (Usdbillion)
Thefiscal policymeasuresadoptedbytheExecutivehaveallowedthestabilizationoftheinterest rate onTreasurySecurities TreasuryTicket Interest Rates
RecentissuesofSovereignEurobondswereissuedatlower rates andwithlongermaturities. Fonte: MINFIN
Restrictivemonetarypolicyallowedthedecelerationoftheinflation rate, from 41% to 18% Inflation Rate, Percentage Exchange Rate, Kz / USD Fonte: MINFIN
Net international reserves declinedsignificantlyfromaround USD 31.15 billion in 2013 to around USD 11.12 billion in 2018 ForeignCurrency Sales (USD Million)) Net international reservs (USD Milion)
Weakeconomicgrowthsince2014… GDP by Sector (%) Grouth of GDP (%)
Stock ofDebt Thereduction in economicactivity led to a 70% drop in revenues for 2014-2017. despiteadjustments in expenditure, thereweresignificant deficits thatpressuredthe stock ofdebt Evolution of the Fiscal Deficit( % of GDP) Stock ofDebt(in % of GDP)
3. Deficit of Global Treasury Treasury: Theyear 2018 wasmarkedbytreasurydifficulties ... Leveraged by Eurobonds and Price of Oil FinancingDeficit in NationalCurrency (Net Exports) 2. Acceptable levels of Treasury in Foreign Currency 3. . Deficit of Global Treasury
Negotiations with the IMF are over, and EFF implementation is ongoing……
As negociações Técnicas terminaram com sucesso. Todavia, há questões que preocupam o Governo Angolano: • A necessidade de descontinuidade dos Empréstimos colateralizados com petróleo (O TPE já tinha um compromisso com a China na altura em que a condicionalidade foi apresentada); • A medida acima poderá, no curto prazo, deteriorar as condições de financiamento do Estado
Angola: Structural Targets for the First Three Evaluations at the EFF Shelter, 2018-19
Angola: Structural Targets for the First Three Evaluations at the EFF Shelter, 2018-19
Angola: Structural Targets for the First Three Evaluations at the EFF Shelter, 2018-19
Angola: Structural Targets for the First Three Evaluations at the EFF Shelter, 2018-19
Angola: Metas Estruturais para as Primeiras Três Avaliações ao Abrigo do EFF, 2018-19
Theprojections for 2019 alsoindicatetheneed for a slightdevaluationofthe Kwanza (from 322 to 352 Kz / USD). Theinflation rate will continue in 2 digits, influencedbytheadjustmentof fuel prices. Buttherewillbe fiscal oversight
Continuous Performance Criteria Angola: Performance Criteria (CD) and Indicative Targets (IM) to the EFF Shelter, December 2018 - December 2019 ContinuousPerformance Criteria Do not impose new restrictions or strengthen existing ones to make payments and transfers related to international transactions. Do not introduce new practices of multiple exchange rates or strengthen existing ones. Not to conclude bilateral payment agreements that are inconsistent with Article VIII Do not impose new restrictions on imports or strengthen existing ones for balance of payments reasons.