ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting: Satellite Observing System Updates & Plans

ECMWF Status Report20th North America – Europe Data Exchange MeetingP. Bauerand colleagues16-19 September 2008 ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Satellite observing system Model/data updates & plans Satellite observations in operational NWP Satellite observations in reanalysis Satellite observations in atmospheric chemistry Future systems ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Satellite observing system ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Data types Screening 24/04/2008 00UTC Assimilation 24/04/2008 00UTC • Satellite data amounts to 99% in screening and 95% in assimilation. • Radiance data dominates assimilation with 90%. • Relative GPSRO (limb) data amount strongly increases between screening and assimilation while ozone data is largely reduced. ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Current sounder/scatterometer observing system ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Current ozone observing system Current GPSRO observing system ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Satellite observing system: Status August 2008 • Radiances: • AMSU-A on NOAA-15/16/17/18, AQUA, Metop • AMSU-B/MHS on NOAA-16/17/18, Metop • SSM/I on F-13, SSMIS on F-16, AMSR-E on Aqua, TMI on TRMM • HIRS on NOAA-17, Metop • AIRS on AQUA, IASI on Metop • MVIRI on Meteosat-7, SEVIRI on Meteosat-9, GOES-11/12, MTSAT-1R imagers • Ozone: • Total column ozone from SBUV on NOAA-16/17/18, SCIAMACHY on Envisat, OMI on Aura • Bending angles: • COSMIC (6 satellites), GRAS on Metop, CHAMP, GRACE-A • Atmospheric Motion Vectors: • Meteosat-7/9, GOES-11/12, MTSAT-1R, FY-2C, MODIS on Terra/Aqua • Sea surface parameters: • Significant wave height from Seawinds on QuikSCAT, AMI on ERS-2, ASCAT on Metop • Near-surface wind speed from RA-2/ASAR on Envisat, Jason altimeter ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Recent updates 2007/2008 • Model: • Improved (linearized) moist physics parameterizations • Introduction of McICA radiation scheme • New soil moisture treatment (H-TESSEL) • Data assimilation: • 3 inner loop minimizations (T95/159/255) • Radiosonde bias correction • OSTIA high-resolution SSTs in esuite • Satellite Data: • Assimilation of all (but one) METOP instruments • Assimilation of all SBUV + OMI ozone retrievals • Extension of rain assimilation from SSM/I to AMSR-E+TMI • Replacement of Meteosat-5/8 with 7/9 • Addition of MTSAT AMVs (FY-2C, MODIS DB, AVHRR monitored) • Other: • GEMS runs pre-operational system • ERA-interim will reach real-time by the end of 2008 (1989-RT) • VAREPS prediction system (T399: 0-10, T255: 11-15 days) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Met Office OSTIA SST & sea-ice August-September, sea-ice fraction and SST OSTIA uses satellite data provided by the GHRSST project, together with in-situ observations to determine the sea surface temperature. The analysis is performed using a variant of optimal interpolation. The analysis is produced daily at a resolution of 1/20° (approx. 5km). Old New ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

AIRS Operational at ECMWF since October 2003. 324 channels received in NRT. One FOV in nine used. Up to 155 channels may be assimilated (CO2 and H2O bands). IASI Operational at ECMWF since June 2007. 8461 channels received in NRT. All FOVS received; only 1-in-4 used. 366 channels routinely monitored. Up to 168 channels may be assimilated (CO2 band only). EPS/METOP- IASI IASI-AIRS comparison of actively assimilated channels (A. Collard) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

EPS/METOP- IASI IASI-AIRS comparison of noise IASI (after April 2007 calibration change) AIRS FG-departure standard deviation Mean FG-departure after bias correction TB [K] Mean FG-departure before bias correction λ [μm] λ [μm] (A. Collard) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

EPS/METOP- IASI First-guess departure standard deviations in 15 μm CO2-band Calculated Observed (A. Collard) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

EPS/METOP- IASI First-guess departure standard deviations in H2O-band Calculated Observed (A. Collard) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

EPS/METOP- IASI IASI Forecast Scores 500 hPa geopotential anomaly correlation (56 cases, spring 2007, normalized RMSE difference, own analysis) IASI better NH IASI worse Mean error difference uncertainty IASI better SH IASI worse (A. Collard) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

COSMIC bending angles assimilated (both rising and setting occultations), CHAMP, GRACE as back-up, GRAS being monitored. GPSRO data reveals a warm bias of aircraft observations. Substantial improvement of stratospheric T-biases. METOP GRAS data assimilated since May 2008. COSMIC-2 follow-on? Assimilation of GPS radio occultation data Southern Hemisphere scores (normalized AC differences) Improved fit to radiosonde data 1000 hPa 500 hPa 200 hPa 100 hPa ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Additional impact of GRAS GRAS-CTRL Forecast RMSE-difference 500 hPa geopotential height 200 hPa geopotential height Forecast RMSE-difference 50 hPa temperature RMSE-error vs radiosondes ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Assimilation of METOP ASCAT winds 6-hour data coverage starting at 00 UTC on 6 June 2007 (~ 280,000 observations). Verification of near-surface wind speed analysis against independent ENVISAT altimeter retrievals. ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

FY-2C AMVs (with QI) received since 2007, data monitoring in operational system started in May 2008 Assimilation of Atmospheric Motion Vectors 28/01/2008 00 UTC (~ 300 000 observations) GOES-11 GOES-12 Meteosat-9 Meteosat-7 MTSAT Aqua/Terra ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

METEOSAT products - CSR 08/2007: Revised CSR-product for METEOSAT-9 Before: If 100% cloud cover below 700 hPa, data is rejected for IR and WV channels. After: Data is included for 6.2 μm, if cloud cover less than 100% above 700 hPa. Effect: 13% more data for 6.2 μm-channel, 7% less data for all other IR-channels, little change for used data. 6.2 μm 7.3 μm All OLDNEW OLDNEW Used OLDNEW OLDNEW (C. Peubey) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

GOES products - CSR ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

MW-imager radiance assimilation 1999-2003: 1D-Var retrieval of TCWV and SWS from SSM/I radiances 2003-5: 4D-Var SSM/I radiance assimilation 2005-8: separate assimilation of radiances in clear skies and cloud/rain-affected areas 2007/8: added AMSR-E, TMI, SSMIS 2008 onwards: unified all-sky radiances assimilation ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

1957 2002 METEOSAT reprocessed cloud motion winds TOMS/ SBUV 1982 1988 Aircraft data 1979 1973 Conventional surface and upper-air observations NCAR/NCEP, ECMWF, JMA, US Navy, Twerle, GATE, FGGE, TOGA, TAO, COADS, … 1973 1979 VTPR 1987 HIRS/ MSU/ SSU Cloud motion winds Buoy data 1991 SSM/I 1995 ERS-1 ERS-2 1998 AMSU ECMWF Reanalysis Observations used in ERA-Interim: • ERA-Interim is current ECMWF reanalysis project following ERA-15 & 40. • 2006 model cycle, 4D-Var, variational bias-correction, more data (rain assimilation, GPSRO); 1989-1998 period available, 1998-2005 period finished, real-time in 2009. 1989 The ERA-40 observing system: • ERA-40 observations until August 2002 • ECMWF operational data after August 2002 • Reprocessed altimeter wave-height data from ERS • Humidity information from SSM/I rain-affected radiance data • Reprocessed METEOSAT AMV wind data • Reprocessed ozone profiles from GOME • Reprocessed GPSRO data from CHAMP ERA-Interim ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

ECMWF Reanalysis Future reanalysis: strong requirement for reprocessed (inter-calibrated) data: Radiances (LEO/GEO), AMV! MSU channel 2 bias corrections in ERA-interim ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

AVHRR vs MODIS AMV Impact u-component • Statistics for used AMVs over Antarctica for AVHRR (IR) and MODIS (IR & WV). • AVHRR winds show largerdepartures and worse biases against the FG than MODISwinds. v-component Obs-FG MODIS Obs-FG AVHRR Obs-AN MODIS Obs-AN AVHRR (N. Bormann) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

AVHRR vs MODIS AMV Impact • Normalised differences in RMS of 48-hour forecast errors for the 500 hPa geopotential height. • Control uses conventional observations and NOAA-18 AMSU-A. • Period: 1 Jan – 14 Feb 2007. (N. Bormann) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Ozone observing system Tested in radiance assimilation mode (IASI planned) TCO monitored Used for verification O3 products monitored Used for verification O3 products monitored, radiance assimilation planned O3 (T, WV) product assimilation planned TCO assimilated TCO assimilated TCO assimilated Color code: TCO monitored assimilated now assimilation planned Used for verification ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

OMI TCO monitoring ECMWF TCO analysis OMI TCO retrievals [DU] ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

AIRS assimilation experiments November 2006 mean O3 profiles: Sondes vs experiments ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

GOME-2/MLS assimilation experiments January 2008 mean O3 profiles: Sondes vs experiments August 2007 mean O3 profiles: Sondes vs experiments Profile information important ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

MODIS assimilation experiments May 2003 aerosol optical depth: ECMWF forecasts GEMS analysis w/ MODIS MODIS observations ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

GEMS assimilation experiments AIRS CO2 radiance assimilation: MOPITT CO product assimilation: MOZAIC verification EXP CTRL VERIF Change due to MOPITT ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Satellite data on CO2 and CH4 for use in MACC Comments: Post-EPS sounder and Sentinels 4/5 should come into the picture late in period or soon after. Fire products (METEOSAT, MODIS, …) are a common requirement. ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Satellite data on reactive gases for use in MACC Comments: Post-EPS sounder and Sentinels 4/5 should come into the picture late in period or soon after. Fire products (METEOSAT, MODIS, …) are a common requirement. ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Satellite data on aerosols for use in MACC Comment: Fire products (METEOSAT, MODIS, …) are a common requirement. ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Future active systems: ADM AEOLUS Pressure (hPa) Control+ADM Control Control-sondes ECMWF is responsible for the development of the level 2 processor and will exploit the data as soon as available. Simulated DWL data adds value at all altitudes and well into longer-range forecasts. Zonal wind forecast error (m/s) (Courtesy D. Tan) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Future active systems: ASCAT soil moisture Root-zone soil moisture analysis increments accumulated for 1- 7/5/2007 Operational Analysis Optimum Interpolation of T2m/RH2m analysis increments EKF T2m/RH2m analysis increments EKF ASCAT soil moisture (Courtesy K. Szipal) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

> 20 dBZ 0 dBZ<Z< 10 dBZ -10 dBZ<Z< 0 dBZ < -20 dBZ Reflectivity bias Future active systems: Cloudsat/Calipso • 1D-Var experiments with ground-based ARM site observations in preparation for Cloudsat/Calipso/EarthCARE; • 35 GHz radar reflectivity, 1D-Var. • January 2001. • Observation • Model first guess • 1D-Var analysis days (Courtesy M. Janisková & A. Benedetti) ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

Planned updates 2008/2009 • Model: • Prognostic precipitation • Revision of shallow convection/vertical diffusion • New vegetation parameterization • Data assimilation: • Ensemble data assimilation system – flow-dependent background errors • Assimilation of soil moisture products • OSTIA high-resolution SSTs • Satellite Data: • Assimilation of GOME-2 • Monitoring/assimilation of NOAA-N’ (ATOVS) • Direct 4D-Var assimilation of cloud/rain-affected MW-imagers • Monitoring of FY-3A sounders/imagers • Monitoring of MLS products, OCO FTS radiances • Other: • GEMS completion, MACC kick-off • ERA-Clim project consolidation • Unified VAREPS/Monthly prediction system ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting 02/2008 PB

ECMWF-EUMETSAT Liaison Meeting: Satellite Observing System Updates & Plans