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Demographic and travel patterns

Demographic and travel patterns. The use of data and modelling in transport and land use planning. Transport and Population Data Centre. Strategic transport and land use planning. Demography and geography. Transport infrastructure, services and policies. Travel behaviour.

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Demographic and travel patterns

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  1. Demographic and travel patterns The use of data and modelling in transport and land use planning Transport and Population Data Centre

  2. Strategic transport and land use planning Demography and geography Transport infrastructure, services and policies Travel behaviour

  3. Strategic land use and transport planning • Objectives (healthy, happy, productive, sustainable etc) • Managing growth • Where and how to house growth • Employment opportunities • Maximise accessibility to jobs and other desired/required activities • Infrastructure, services, policies • Which corridors require capacity? • How best to serve demand for travel • Infrastructure and services • Demand management • Pattern of land use development

  4. Strategic transport and land use planning Demography and geography Transport infrastructure, services and policies Travel behaviour

  5. Demography and Geography • Composition of population • Census • Sources of change • Births, Deaths, Migration • Location of change

  6. Age and gender, Sydney Source: TPDC (2004) NSW State and Regional Population Projections

  7. Age and gender, coastal NSW Source: TPDC (2004) NSW State and Regional Population Projections

  8. Sources of population change, NSW Source: ABS (various years) Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0)

  9. Location of population change, NSW, 2001-2031 Source: TPDC (2004) NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections

  10. Location of change, Sydney, 2001-2031 Source: TPDC (2004) NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections

  11. Employment change, Sydney, 2001-2031 Source: TPDC (2004) GMR Travel Zone Employment Projections

  12. Containment • Approx one quarter of employed Sydney residents live and work in the same LGA • This percentage has declined over time from 27% 10 years ago to approximately 25% now Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

  13. Commercial Centre Employment Centre 1996 2001 % change Sydney CBD 192,665 221,396 14.9 N Sydney/Milsons Point 33,056 36,576 10.6 Parramatta 29,542 35,658 20.7 St Leonards/Crs Nest 24,950 26,083 4.5 Pyrmont/Ultimo 17,307 21,594 24.8 Macquarie/North Ryde 18,008 20,361 13.1 Chatswood 17,737 19,317 8.9 Source: TDC Journey to Work Data, 1996 and 2001

  14. Casualisation of workforce • Casual employees are at least 20% of the workforce • Contrary to popular belief, almost half are men • The growth in casual employees is three times that of growth in employment generally Source: Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (2002) Casual Work in NSW

  15. Strategic transport and land use planning Demography and geography Transport infrastructure, services and policies Travel behaviour

  16. Travel behaviour • Current pattern of behaviour • Journey to work • Household travel survey • Commercial transport study • Trends in behaviour over time

  17. Current travel: JTW to Centres Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

  18. Current travel: JTW to Centres Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

  19. PT mode share to work 2001 Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

  20. CBD Employment and Rail Patronage Millions (patronage) ‘000s (employment) Millions(population) Sources: State Transit Authority (Sydney Buses Patronage) State Rail Authority (CityRail Patronage) Australian Bureau of Statistics (Estimated Resident Population) CB Richard Ellis (CBD Employment)

  21. JTW within 500m of rail, Sydney Mode Live <500m Work <500m All JTW from station from station trips Train 34% 43% 16% Bus 6% 15% 6% Car 41% 32% 69% Other 19% 10% 9% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

  22. JTW over 2km from rail Mode Live >2km Work >2km All from station from station trips Train 9% 3% 16% Bus 7% 4% 6% Car 74% 83% 69% Other 9% 10% 9% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

  23. HTS: Reasons for travel(Sydney, Weekday) Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  24. HTS: Duration of different types of trips Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  25. Methods of travel(Sydney, Weekday) Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  26. Methods of travel for different purposes (Sydney, Weekday) Serve passenger Work-related business Commuting Personal business Social/Recreation Shopping Education/Child care Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  27. Growth in travel, 1999-2002: who and how?(Sydney, Weekday) Trips, average weekday, Sydney 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 Over 70 <11 Age group Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  28. Growth in car use per capita: Why? • Licence holding • Fringe growth • Job dispersal • Women in workforce • Economic prosperity • Car ownership

  29. Growth in car use, 1991-2001(Sydney, Weekday) Annual % growth Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  30. Growth in car use, 1991-2001(Sydney, Weekday) Annual % growth Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  31. Change in car use by gender, 1991-2001 Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  32. Growth in car use, 1991-2001 Unemployed Annual % growth Full timeworker Part time/Casual Student Retired/Agedpensioner Keepinghouse Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

  33. TRIP ENDS SCREENLINES NETWORK PRIOR MATRIX MATRIX ESTIMATION PROCEDURE Road freight movements TRIP TABLE

  34. 2002 Heavy Vehicle Movements (GMR) TPDC Commercial Transport Study (CTS) Sydney

  35. Strategic transport and land use planning Demography and geography Transport infrastructure, services and policies Travel behaviour

  36. Transport infrastructure, services and policies • Road network • Lanes • Speed/flow relationships • Tolls • Parking costs • Public transport network • Routes • Stops • Timetables • Fares

  37. Road and public transport network

  38. Accessibility

  39. Strategic transport and land use planning Demography and geography Transport infrastructure, services and policies Travel behaviour StrategicTravelModel

  40. Travel behaviour model: Strategic Travel Model (STM) • Household type model • Car ownership model • Licence holding model • Trip generation • Joint destination and mode choice • Route assignment

  41. STM Outputs

  42. STM Outputs • Traffic volumes • Road speeds • Volume/capacity ratios • Slow roads, slow travel • Rail patronage by line • Rail patronage by section • Station ins/outs • Trains per section • (similarly for bus) • Origins/destinations of demand using any selected link (highway or transit) or combinations • Trip length distributions • VKT, PKT • Mode splits • Demand - commuter & non-commuter • Spider diagrams • Time/space diagrams for transit • Car travel time contours from any chosen spot • Shortest paths • Interchange volumes • and more ...

  43. STM Outputs • Strategic planning • Scenario modelling – test relationships/sensitivities • Long Term Strategic Plan for Rail • Project evaluation • Parramatta Rail Link, Transitways • Western Sydney Orbital, Lane Cove Tunnel, M2-F3 • Private sector proposals • Policy development • Integrated fares • Air quality management

  44. DEC airshed modelling of urban development in Sydney Max 1-hr Ozone2026 scenarios 20th December 2000

  45. STM - uses Public Transport Mode Share 2021 (am peak) Assumptions tested No PT investment Trend PTinvestment North West Sector 18.1% 24.3% South West Sector 19.2% 24.7% Sydney Average 22.2% 25.5%

  46. STM - uses • Recent scenario modelling suggests: • Significant inertia in existing system • Price signals rather than infrastructure more powerful tool • People are very adaptable

  47. Strategic transport and land use planning Demography and geography Transport infrastructure, services and policies Travel behaviour StrategicTravelModel

  48. More information: • www.planning.nsw.gov.au/tpdc Australasian Transport Research Forum 2005 • 28-30 September 2005 • Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, Sydney

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