Trade in the Atlantic Basin Lorena Ruano Jean Monnet Chair , CIDE

1. Trade in theAtlanticBasinLorena RuanoJean MonnetChair, CIDE Therisingimportance of theAtlanticHemisphere Center forTransatlanticRelations The Paul H. NitzeSchool of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Washington, D. C., 12 September 2011

2. Introduction and contents • Descriptive trade data of the Atlantic basin with a regional approach to answer two sets of basic questions: • How are trade flows organized across the Atlantic? • Who trades with whom and how much? • Who depends most/least from trade with Atlantic basin partners? • Which are the most/least dynamics trade flows across the Atlantic basin? • How does the relation between the EU and Latin America feature in the larger Atlantic picture? • What is the relative importance of the Atlantic? • To its constitutive regions? • To world trade? • Relative to trade with other regions?

3. Total trade among regions of the Atlantic basin • Trade more thandoubledover a decade… • North America (theUSA) dominatestheAtlanticbasin, with: • Europe • LatinAmerica. • Thethinnest link isbetweenLatinAmerica and Africa. • Tradetook2 yearstorecoverafterthe crisis. All figures in million USD Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata

4. Whotradeswithwhom? Total tradeamongAtlanticbasinregions Europe North America All figures in million USD Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata LatinAmerica Africa

5. Europe’stradewithAtlanticbasinregions Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata

6. North America’s trade with Atlantic basin regions Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata

7. Latin America's trade with Atlantic basin regions Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata

8. Africa’stradewithAtlanticbasinregions • Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata

9. Total tradegrowthamongregions in theAtlanticbasin • Beforethe 2008 crisis: • ThemostdynamicregionwasAfrica. • TradebetweenAfrica and LatinAmericawasthefastestgrowing. • Trade in theNorth Atlanticwastheleastdynamic . • Crisis and recovery: • TradeshrankamongallAtlanticbasinregionsby more than 20% in 2008. • Africa’stradewasthemost vulnerable…butitalsobounced back fastest. • Trade in theNorth Atlanticwasless vulnerable… butslowesttorecover. • Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata

10. The EU and LatinAmerica, 2003-2010 Source: Eurostat

11. Theelephant in theroom: East Asia ExportstoEurope Exportsto North America • Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata Exportsto East Asia ExportstoLatinAmerica ExportstoAfrica

12. Who depends most on the Atlantic region? ExportstoAtlanticbasin Exportstotherest of theworld • Source: Own calculations with UN Comtradedata

13. EU total trade with main regional partners, 2003-2010 Source: OwncalculationswithEurostat data

14. Thedecreasingimportance of theAtlanticbasin in worldtrade… Source: WTO Share of worldtrade, selectedcountries and regions, 1948-2009

15. Somechallengesahead…. • Theongoing crisis isprovoking a new slowdown in trade in 2012 (TheEconomist, 08/09/2012) • Exportsfellby 4% inBritain, 8% in South-Africa (OECD) • Importstothe EU fellby 4.5% • Thisisdueto: • A fall in GDP, and thus of demand, especially in Europe • A shortage of tradefinance: Spanish and Frenchbanks • Protectionism: Argentina, Brazil… • The Doha round has stalled. Can bilateral dealssubstitutethem? • North Atlanticdealwasabandoned in 1990s overagriculture… • EU-Mercosur tradenegotiationsstalledsincetheearly 2000s overagriculture… and otherissues • Africa-Latin American volumeisminimal and so as tojustify a negotiation. • BUT: The EU and USA havesignedFTAswith Colombia Perú and Central America …

16. Conclusions • How are trade flows organized across the Atlantic? • The USA is the main hub: • The largest volume of trade takes place in the North Atlantic, and within the Americas. • But they are the slowest growing, and were badly hit by the 2008 crisis. • Developing regions trade primarily with their northern developed neighbors, rather than across the Atlantic. • Africa trades mainly with Europe, but its trade with the Americas is the fastest growing, especially with Latin America. • Latin America trades mainly with the North, but around ¼ of its exports go to Europe • The trade relationship between the EU and Latin America is secondary and among the least dynamic within the Atlantic basin. • However it is much more developed than that of Africa with North America. • It is increasingly dominated by Brazil (1/3) and less so by Mexico (1/4).

17. Conclusions (cont.) • What is the relative importance of the Atlantic? • To its constitutive regions: • Europe depends least from trade with Atlantic basin partners… and decreasingly so. • Developing countries of Africa and Latin America depend most… … from trade with their northern partners, but not much from cross-Atlantic relations. • For North America, the Atlantic still represents 40% of trade, and this share remains stable. • The elephant in the room? • East Asia cannot be taken out of the picture, as it features as a major and increasingly important trading partner to all four Atlantic basin regions. • Its influence is felt more sharply in Europe and Africa’s trade. Latin America is also affected. • To world trade? • TheAtlanticbasin’s share of worldtradeisdecreasingsharply: fromover 80% at theend of the 1940s tojust 50% in 2009.