1 / 23

Phil Graham Sara-Sofia Hellström Fredrik Wetterhall

Hydrological response surfaces in the Nordic Region for use in probabilistic assessment of climate change. Phil Graham Sara-Sofia Hellström Fredrik Wetterhall. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping. Our contribution to workpackage objectives.

marshallm
Download Presentation

Phil Graham Sara-Sofia Hellström Fredrik Wetterhall

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Hydrological response surfaces in the Nordic Region for use in probabilistic assessment of climate change Phil Graham Sara-Sofia Hellström Fredrik Wetterhall Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping

  2. Our contribution to workpackage objectives • Hydrological rainfall-runoff models to investigate impacts of climate change on stream discharge • Using the climate change signal from RCMs

  3. Our contribution to workpackage objectives • Response surfaces for selected applications • Direct use of multiple regional model projections • Comparison of outcomes from the two methods

  4. What have we achieved since Lund? • In Lund, we showed some preliminary response surfaces • Now, we have produced many more • In Lund, we discussed the question of seasonality • Now, we have investigated the details of representing seasonality

  5. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoffno seasonality Lake Vänern Lake Vänern

  6. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoffwith seasonality Lake Vänern Lake Vänern

  7. RS – Representing SeasonalityMethod 1 Temperature Precipitation

  8. RS - Extended Period with Maximum Discharge Lake Vänern Current regulation rules

  9. RS - Extended Period with Maximum Discharge Lake Vänern Current regulation rules

  10. Lake Vänern RS - Extended Period with Maximum Discharge with Modified Regulation Modified regulation can help reduce risk of high discharge

  11. Lake Vänern Response Surfaces – Monthly Runoff Lake Vänern

  12. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoff Lake Mälaren

  13. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoff seasonality 1 Lake Mälaren

  14. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoff seasonality 2 Lake Mälaren

  15. RS – Representing SeasonalityMethod 2 Precipitation method 1 Precipitation method 2

  16. RS – Lake Levels Lake Mälaren Low levels

  17. RS – Lake Levels, seasonality 1 Lake Mälaren Low levels

  18. RS – Lake Levels, seasonality 2 Lake Mälaren Low levels

  19. Response Surfaces – Monthly Runoff Lake Mälaren

  20. Monthly Runoff – compared to previous results Lake Mälaren

  21. Some Conclusions • Seasonal differences not so apparent for annual runoff • Shows up in monthly results, and even more for thresholds, although not all basins are equally sensitive • Different methods for representing seasonality have an impact • Representation of evapotranspiration is problematic (as usual!)

  22. Coming Work • Contribution to del. 6.7 (RS Report) • Not too much more on response surfaces before data starts coming • Next major effort will be to work with direct modelling of RCM simulations (the “Matrix,” as soon as they are available)

  23. Questions for Discussion • Critical thresholds, we use experience from critical past events, better ideas? • What if there is widely differing seasonality from the climate models? • What will we actually get from the climate models (i.e. probabilistic info.)? • How many simulations will be available (perturbed vs. RCM results)?

More Related