1 / 13

Sherri Lawrence Frederick Treyz, Ph.D. George Treyz, Ph.D. Nicolas Mata

Predicting State and Local Government Demand in Local Regions Based on Changes in Economic and Demographic Conditions. Sherri Lawrence Frederick Treyz, Ph.D. George Treyz, Ph.D. Nicolas Mata. State and Local Government Demand. Responds to Gross State Products as well as Population

martin-butler
Download Presentation

Sherri Lawrence Frederick Treyz, Ph.D. George Treyz, Ph.D. Nicolas Mata

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Predicting State and Local Government Demand in Local Regions Based on Changes in Economic and Demographic Conditions Sherri LawrenceFrederick Treyz, Ph.D.George Treyz, Ph.D.Nicolas Mata

  2. State and Local Government Demand • Responds to Gross State Products as well as Population • Need: Based on Population • Resource: Based on Revenue (limited to GDP)

  3. State and Local Government Demand Equations and Estimates The new state government demand equation has the following form: Where, k = state t = time u = U.S. β = GDP elasticity of state government expenditures SG = State government expenditures in chained 2000$ RSG = local calibration factor for state government expenditures GDP = gross domestic product in chained 2000$ N = population

  4. The new local government demand equation has the following form: Where, k = state t = time u = U.S. γ = GDP elasticity of local government expenditures LG = Local government expenditures in chained 2000$ RLG= local calibration factor for local government expenditures GDP = gross domestic product in chained 2000$ N = population

  5.  equation beta standard error of beta t N R-square SG 0.904 0.089 10.210 510 0.959 gamma standard error of gamma t N R-square LG 0.798 0.078 10.224 510 0.980 Regression Equation Results

  6. Scaling Calibration Factors from State to County Level

  7. State Government Equation Local Government Equation

  8. Previous Demand Equations: State Where, l = local region t = time u = U.S. SG = State government demand in chained 2000$ N = population λSG = An estimate of the state government average demand per capita in the last history year

  9. Previous Demand Equations: Local Where, LG = Local government demand in chained 2000$ λLG= An estimate of the local government average demand per capita in the last history year Table 6 shows the percent change in the control forecast of a region in Georgia based on a model with the new equations for state and local government demand compared to a model with the old equations. For this region in Georgia, the GDP per capita has a growth rate of only about 60% of that in the nation by 2050, which in the new equation leads to the decline seen in the forecast of the state and local government employment when compared to the old equation.

  10. Change in Baseline Forecast as a Result of New Equations

  11. Results of 1,000 Jobs Added to Professional and Technical Services Based on New Equations

More Related