1 / 9

Lets Make A Deal

Lets Make A Deal. Using Probability To Make Big Bucks Vinayak Ranade Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Monty Hall Problem. The Right Choice. A. B. A  B. Events And Conditional Probability. A. B. P(A | B) = P(A  B). A  B. P(B). Baye’s Rule. The Right Choice.

martin-kane
Download Presentation

Lets Make A Deal

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Lets Make A Deal Using Probability To Make Big Bucks Vinayak Ranade Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  2. The Monty Hall Problem

  3. The Right Choice

  4. A B A  B Events And Conditional Probability

  5. A B P(A | B) = P(A  B) A  B P(B) Baye’s Rule

  6. The Right Choice A  B The prize is behind door 1 and I reveal door 2 P(A  B)=1/6 B I reveal door 2 P(B) = 1/2 A The prize is behind door 1 P(A) = 1/3 A | B = The prize is behind door 1 giventhat I reveal door 2

  7. B I reveal door 2 P(B) = 1/2 A  B The prize is behind door 1 and I reveal door 2 P(A  B)=1/6 A The prize is behind door 1 P(A) = 1/3 P(A | B) = P(A  B) = 1/3 P(B) The Right Choice

  8. YouCan Win Big

  9. Probability Mass Functions And Expectation Event A Result 1 : Probability 1 (p1) Result 2 : Probability 2 (p2) … Result N : Probability N (pN) Expectation(A) = r1 * p1 + r2 * p2 + … + rN * pN

More Related