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Decision Basics

Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. Decision Basics. Agenda. More TED! – Barry Schwartz “The Paradox of Choice” Decisions since last class? Decision basics. Decisions. All decisions have alternatives. Decisions. All decisions have alternatives, values. Decision.

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Decision Basics

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  1. Psychology of Personal Decision-Making Decision Basics

  2. Agenda • More TED! – Barry Schwartz • “The Paradox of Choice” • Decisions since last class? • Decision basics

  3. Decisions • All decisions have alternatives

  4. Decisions • All decisions have alternatives, values

  5. Decision • All decisions have alternatives, values, and uncertainty!

  6. Facts vs. Values What you think is true:

  7. Facts vs. Values …Can be very different from what is actually true

  8. Two Features of Decision-Making • #1: Problem structuring • Identification of: • Alternatives • Values that differentiate alternatives • Uncertain events Dullness Beauty

  9. Two Features of Decision-Making • #2: Evaluation • Weighing: • Desirability of outcomes • Uncertain events Dullness Beauty

  10. Aha! Moments with Other Problems

  11. Are the means good enough? • Decision problems: • Hard to determine if solutions are good enough! Seattle Portland

  12. Are the means good enough? • Decision problems: • Hard to determine if solutions are good enough! Seattle Portland

  13. 2 Decision Types • #1 Multi-attribute decisions • Involve trade-offs between values

  14. 2 Decision Types • #2 Risky decisions • Deal with uncertainty and the FUTURE = = = =

  15. Decisions, Evolution, and Work • We haven’t evolved into decision analysts… it takes work and cognitive tools! Wisdom defined: …Capacity of judging rightly in matters relating to life and conduct; soundness of judgment in the choice of means and ends.

  16. Common Objections to Decision Analysis… • Walt Whitman - “Be a more of a free spirit to better appreciate life” • Easier to appreciate life this way in between decisions, not during them • Analyzing decisions places too much weight on what is quantifiable and ignores the other stuff • Decision analysis quantifies the “unquantifiable”

  17. Decision Analysis “WEEDY Roommates” • Decision tables Breathability Authenticity Control Harmony o o + ? o o + o

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