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Introduction

Simulations of ENSO-Related Variability in the East Asian Monsoon Region by NCEP-GSM Hong, Chi-Cherng 1 Chia, Hsin-Hsing 2 2003/10/25 Taipei Municipal Teachers College Department of Science Education 1 Central Weather Burea 2. Introduction.

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Introduction

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  1. Simulations of ENSO-Related Variability in the East Asian Monsoon Region by NCEP-GSMHong, Chi-Cherng1 Chia, Hsin-Hsing22003/10/25Taipei Municipal Teachers College Department of Science Education1Central Weather Burea2

  2. Introduction • Can AGCM capture interannual Asian Monsoon Variability (such as Western Pacific high, WPH) during ENSO cycle ? • What’s the limitation of AGCM in simulating EAM ?

  3. Experiment Design 51 years AMIP II experiment by GSMT42L28 ∥ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ 1950 2000 Daily SST interpolated from observed monthly data is imposed (Basically followed by N.-C. Lau’s work) Warm: 1957,1972,1982,1991,1997 ENSO events are selected for composite Cold: 1955,1970,1973,1975,1988

  4. Model description • GSM–T42L28 is a global model with triangular truncation at 42 wavenumbers (128 x 64)and 28 vertical layers • Cloud parameterization : Arakawa-Schubert • Parallel version for PC is available from 2003 • Job has been executed in Dept. of Earth Science of NTNU ‘s GIGA PC-cluster • Around 105 minutes computing time each year (16 processors)

  5. Model and observed climatology • Sperber and Palmer (1996): A realistic model climatology is an important factor for the determining the skill of simulating interannual monsoon variability

  6. 850mb Strl and Precip

  7. Brief Summary • GSM can simulate the annual cycle of EAM • Model seems to have system bias in the EAM region especially in summer season

  8. Composite result • Examine the evolution of atmospheric circulation, surface fluxes and SST during the ENSO cycle over western Pacific (0) (0/1) (1) (1) JJAS ONDJ FMAM JJAS ENSO mature phase

  9. PRECIP AND MSLP MODEL OBSERVED

  10. 850mb Wind and Isotach

  11. 850mb Wind and Isotach model observed

  12. Box A: Precipitation Box B: mean sea level pressure dash line:observed solid line:model

  13. Warm events mslp year

  14. Cold events mslp year

  15. Warm events precipitation year

  16. Cold events precipitation (mm/d) year

  17. Air-Sea Interaction (Wang et al. 2000)

  18. SURFACE FLUX: SHT W/m2 LHT cint=10 DSWR

  19. model observation cint=10 Net downward surface flux :DSWR-SHF-LHF

  20. Ensemble average (10 members , from Kanamitsu ) Individual Run

  21. Summary • GSM to some degree capture the WPH, Precipitation and Surface flux pattern in the next spring (FMAM) over the EAM after the mature phase of ENSO • Composites show results of individual run is similar with 10 members ensemble average • GSM didn’t simulate the west-eastward extension of WPH in the decay stage of ENSO cycle

  22. Future work • Local SST vs. global SST examine the impact of local SST anomaly (WNP and TEP ) on the EAM • How to correct the systems bias • Individual run ensemble prediction multi-model ensemble (ECHAM4,CCM3,NTNUGCM,CWB…)

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