ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN TANZANIA IN THE CONTEXT OF MKUKUTA

1. ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN TANZANIA IN THE CONTEXT OF MKUKUTA Dar es Salaam, 14 August 2009

2. OUTLINE • INTRODUCTION • METHODOLOGY • FINDINGS 4. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

3. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Overview • A Study that covers both parts of the Union; wrt to both MKUKUTA and MKUZA • One Document Generated Zanzibar Part of the Study Presented and Discussed 13.8. 2009 • In comprehensive TOR it was meant to (1) Feed into new Generations of MKUKUTA/MKUZA Review and (2) be Reference Material for future

4. INTRODUCTION (Continued) • Primary Focus here is in (1); Feeding into MKUKUTA Review • So, less of an Academic Exercise, and geared to immediate Internalization and Use by MKUKUTA II Drafting Team • The ultimate objective of this study is to provide insights into population dynamics-poverty reduction links in Tanzania in the context of MKUKUTA with a view to integrate population variables in Future Framework

5. INTRODUCTION (Continued) 1.2 Specific Objectives of Study • Defined in detailed TOR attached to Main Document; with specific chronology in analysis running as(1) Identifying the Population Dynamics (2) Seeing the extent to which the same were incorporated in MKUKUTA I, and with what emerging results (3) What needs to be done on the same area in MKUKUTA II, and (4) Recommending accordingly

6. INTRODUCTION (Continued) • In addressing the TOR the Specific Objectives clear focus need to (1) underscore the centrality of population issues in sustainable human development, (2) the ultimate realisation of Tanzania’s development agenda, including the MDGs and Vision 2025 for Mainland Tanzania, and (3) addressing the sense in which the Demographic Dividend is ultimately attainable for Tanzania

7. INTRODUCTION (Continued) 1.3 Key Concepts These are defined early on in the study; and they include (1) Population Dynamics (2) Population Structure (3) Population Distribution (4) Demographic Transition (5) Demographic Dividend * Presenter to give quick definitions of each, and link to theme of study.

8. 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Guiding Analytical Framework • Derives its logic from fact that Population Features on both sides of the “Development Equation” • On Supply side Labour Force is the Ultimate Resource in production of material and non material Goods • On Demand side Total Population is the Ultimate Beneficiary of the Results of the Labour Processes

9. METHODOLOGY (Continued) • In detailed analysis the Supply side looks at the quantity of the labour force, the education, skills, experience and motivation of the labour force which are key to productivity: These are in turn linked to the absorptive capacity of the economy (employment opportunities mainly, mobilizable resources and their carrying capacities), current and in future.

10. METHODOLOGY (Continued) • The Demand side looks at the total size of the population, its structure and distribution by different attributes, and the “purchasing power” of such population – current and future projections • Balances in Supply and Demand in a dynamic sense (i.e. over time) is what yields the Demographic Dividend • Such possible balances are normally associated with maturation of Demographic Transition

11. METHODOLOGY (Continued) • Some conventional wisdom in order here: population growth in excess of 2% is inimical to sustainable development for the majority of countries (unless one thinks of possible miracles in absorptive capacities of economies, or premium resources in a sustained way – with GDP growth in excess of 8-10%)

12. METHODOLOGY (Continued) 2.2 Information Gathering Method Three approaches used 1. Content analysis of documents accessed • They include publications on population dynamics and on development, e.g Population and Housing Census, Demographic and Health Surveys, Integrated Labour Force Surveys, the National Population Policy, diseases indicator surveys (on HIV/AIDS and malaria), etc..

13. METHODOLOGY (Continued) • On TZ development front, publications include the various HBS Docs, MKUKUTA docs, and the Poverty and Human Development Reports. • A third component of documents are those pertaining to Best Practices in other countries in similar development ‘circumstances’ to Tanzania (on specific aspects of the study) – Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Seychelles, etc were cases unearthed and reported on.

14. METHODOLOGY (Continued) 2 Consultations with stakeholders • Consultations in interviews/meetings with individuals and institutions representing different stakeholders in the area . Issues raised with them included (1) their interpretation of links of population dynamics and poverty, (2) their perceptions of inclusion of population dynamics in MKUKUTA I, and (3) what they propose to be done to improve any deficiency.

15. METHODOLOGY (Continued) • The overwhelming perception of respondents was the deleterious effects of population dynamics on poverty reduction efforts, with emphasis on the high population growth rate, buoyed by high fertility, especially among the poorest of the poor. • The respondents had little to say on mortality and much less on migration where “rural-urban migration to urban (un)employment” is alluded to in economics and migration literature.

16. METHODOLOGY (Continued) • Views were obtained also on internal and international migration and urbanisation • An overriding concern was raised on the “youth bulge” of Tanzania’s population which posed problems relating to unemployment in the face of poverty, early entry to child-bearing which maintains the population momentum already created by rapid population growth.

17. METHODOLOGY (Continued) 3. The detailed use of Best Practices for Benchmarking. This third method yielded countries with credible Population-and-Development Integration Programmes, some with credible and Human-Rights based approaches to Demographic Transition, others with highly credible Population-Quality-Enhancement Programmes (esp. in education, health, food and nutrition, and safety nets for poor and vulnerable groups)

18. METHODOLOGY (Continued) 2.3 Synthesis, Analysis and Consolidation of Information. This was the third part of methodology; meant to facilitate positioning Tanzania on the development path, relative to its own experience over time, and in relation to other countries – esp those currently in similar environments but doing better, or even the Tigers, which had more or less similar environment to that of Tanzania only a few decades ago.

19. 3. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES 3.1 General Observations on Population Dynamics and the Economy • Seen in size of population relative to the land mass the population and its dynamics do not seem a problem • Tanzania is yet to go far on path of demographic transition since both fertility and mortality are still high and declining only slowly. The Demographic Dividend is far away.

20. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • Population growth is too high, implying short doubling time, a youthful population and high dependence in lower echelon • Problems notable when links are considered in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction – meeting MDG would require at least 8-10% annual GDP growth rate, which is not attainable. High population growth is inimical to carrying capacities of resources already mobilized at household, sub-national and national levels – and putting high pressure on services

21. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • The ‘youth conspicuousness’ in population is high amidst reduced labour absorption in most sectors; putting immense pressure on possible employment opportunities, on services, and also as a potential political force of its own as it increasingly feels neglected • The Elderly, though a small proportion is increasingly becoming a conspicuous ‘group’ in terms of the burden it is increasingly carrying with orphaned children from the HIV/AID Pandemic. It is rising in size fast too

22. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • Key interventions in population dynamics still narrowly understood in terms of fertility control and family planning; not going into an integrated Population and Development Framework • A National Population Policy is in place since 1992, with a more recent version of 2006, which can be taken on board under new generation of PRS. Population issues in past not explicitly incorporated in MKUKUTA, but lost in banner of Cross-cutting issues supposedly ‘mainstreamed’ in sectoral write-ups

23. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) 3.2 Observations on Specific Components of Population Dynamics • Fertility is high and showing little signs of falling. Many reasons cited and consolidated in the National Population Policy, among many credible documents and independent studies • Variation in fertility are also conspicuous across regions and between Mainland and Zanzibar

24. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • Mortality also declining only slowly, posing permanent danger to health of mothers, children and high pressure on services • Maternal mortality little studied and evidence scanty even as (guess)estimates give figures on high ranges; reflecting thin spread of related services • The HIV/AIDS pandemic is seen to have significant demographic and economic dent as revealed by many studies.

25. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • Internal Migration dominantly a rural-urban phenomena in size and sensitivity. DSM seen as a crisis dimension in sheer size relative to other urban centres and relative to total urbanization processes. No Urbanization Policy is in place; and the Human Settlements Development Policy of 2000 is yet to become operational. • There is a general population movement eastward over the decades, a global phenomena of populations moving closer to oceans.

26. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • Rural-rural featuring with a trend southward of the country, bringing in new challenges in land use and water conflicts (agriculture vs pastoralism mainly); also conflicts with water catchment areas, game and forest reserves (pastoralism vs forest and game reserves) • Population density is still not an issues on Mainland (except for some pockets of overpopulation and extreme underpopulation). In cities density is in crisis proportions relative to service capacities in health, education, water, transport and general congestion

27. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • Refugees bringing in new dimensions: when they have been massive they have been associated with environmental degradation, crime, and other social ills; as they leave, scorched earth phenomena have been noted. Those being naturalized are adding to challenges of settlements, social (dis)harmony with locals and reduced DP direct support in midst of government pressure on services. Integration with locals is a formidable short to medium term challenge

28. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • International Dimension of migration little studied and documented. One strand in argument sees ‘brain drain’ from emigration of skills and labour generally for greener pastures in the diaspora; another sees some opportunities in remittances and transfers (direct investments) if they can be harnessed.

29. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) 3.3 Observations on Institutional Frameworks for different aspects of Pop Dynamics and Poverty Reduction • Frequent changes in custodians of Population Issues and of Poverty Reduction Initiatives pose challenges as serious commitment faces discrete changes often • Weak structures for overseeing Population issues in absence of a formal PPU and the structures earmarked in the Population Policy, with the result that NPP is still on paper with no operative Strategic Plan for its implementation

30. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • Weak institutions responsible for various activities in MKUKUTA (and MKUZA): Statistical Office in Zanzibar and NBS for the Union Government are cases in point • Data generation is weak, and where some is forthcoming, only first level analyses are conspicuous, implying little link between data generators and possible (analytical) users

31. FINDINGS AND KEY MESSAGES (Continued) • The Technical Working Groups under the PRS initiatives have weak coordination, bearing heavily on performance and on monitoring, supervision and evaluation. Dissemination and Advocacy faces greatest challenges among the TWGs • While macro-fundamentals in the economy show signs of macroeconomic recovery, the effects are yet to trickle down to meso and micro levels. Poverty, as a result remains rampant. New generation PRS initiatives need a fresh look on transmission mechanisms

32. 4. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT 4.1 Existing Monitoring and Evaluation Mechanism • The need for data and information for effective monitoring and evaluation of poverty eradication in Tanzania was noted since the Government’s adoption of the National Poverty Eradication Strategy (NPES) in 1997, becoming even more pronounced in the drafting of the Tanzania Assistance Strategy (TAS) and under the first generation of contemporary Poverty Reduction Strategy contained in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP).

33. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT (Continued) • To ensure availability of timely and reliable evidence on poverty a comprehensive Poverty Monitoring System (PMS) was designed, coming out in a ‘Poverty Monitoring Master Plan’ (PMMP) in 2001. • The PMMP as a document had eight chapters, covering key aspects of (1) Information needs for pro-poor policy and decision making (2) institutional framework for poverty monitoring and what was to become a set of core technical working groups (TWG), documented widely.

34. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT (Continued) • With MKUKUTA the previous PMS evolved and matured into MKUKUTA Monitoring System by making space for deeper and broader monitoring of the range of issues covered by the three clusters. The purpose of this document was to provide the framework for an expanded system which served as the overall national Monitoring System. This Monitoring System was part and parcel of overall Government planning and reporting systems and complemented Strategic Planning and Budgeting and the Public Expenditure Review processes PER).

35. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT (Continued) • In the actual crafting of MKUKUTA the question of Population and Development was listed under Cross-cutting Topics, but no explicit inputs were forthcoming from the Custodians of the Thematic Area, hence its relegation to secondary consideration in the Final MKUKUTA Document

36. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT (Continued) 4.2 Outputs from the MMS to Inform Policy • The Monitoring System produces reports, some on an annual basis while others are produced intermittently. These reports draw on information from Government systems such as PER Reports, Sector Reviews and Budget Guidelines. Equally, these reports inform the elected and administrative branches of Government, DP (including those who provide General Budget Support) and non-state actors.

37. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT (Continued) Below is a short list of the outputs from MMS for decision-making processes. • MKUKUTA Annual Implementation Report: • The Strategic Policy Brief (to Parliament): • National Surveys including first level analysis • Poverty and Human Development Report (PHDR):

38. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT (Continued) • Short Reports on Growth and Poverty Status • Views of the People Report on MKUKUTA Implementation • Briefs: Issues from the People on MKUKUTA Implementation • Briefs: Policy and Topical Papers

39. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT (Continued) 4.3 Required Technical Support This has been identified in several areas. Details in the Doc but the relevant areas include: • Revamping of the National Bureau of Statistics • Key support to Sectoral Data Generating and Utilising Outfits • Enhancing Technical Capacity for Programme Implementation and Coordination • Institutional Support to Actors in Population-Poverty Reduction Links

40. 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Key Conclusions These point to both challenges and opportunities for the forthcoming MKUKUTA II. The Key Opportunities now, not available at the drafting of MKUKUTA I are • Existence of a well written National Population Policy, 2006 • Explicit recognition of the central role of Population Dynamics in any Policy designs

41. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (Continued) • Some move towards understanding notions of Integration of Population Variables in Development Planning • Noted DP and Stakeholder interest on issues of Population dynamics, even with still weak understanding of key challenges to address • Many emerging “Best Practices”, some from the Region to which Tanzania belongs, which can be used as benchmarks

42. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (Continued) The Key Challenges are • Unstable Framework, in terms of location, institutional Setup for overseeing MKUKUTA • Weak and frequent changes in institutional framework for overseeing Population issues • Capacity building requirements in key Actor institutions (noted NBS and down to sector data custodians) and Modellers • National Population Policy yet to become operational

43. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (Continued) 5.2 Recommendations These, too, are given in point form • Review the NPP with a view to isolate Key Elements to be in MKUKUTA II • Institute the Organogram (structures) earmarked for the Implementation of the NPP and provide ‘teeth’ to the relevant institutions • Enhance capacities of key actors in Data Production and Analysis, in Training of relevant skills for Integration of Population in Development (Esp Macro-Demo Modelling)

44. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (Continued) • Institute deliberate interventions to enhance clout, capacity and stability of Offices responsible for Population issues • Facilitate coordination of various actors in the Population and Poverty ‘nexus’ • Engage with Elected Bodies, eg. Parliament on Population issues (via Parliamentarian Associations or through the Sector Working Groups in Parliament) • Initiate and enhance dialogue and interactions with Best Practices in the region

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