Jikun Huang, Jinxia Wang and Lingling Hou Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy

1. Water Resources and Adaptation to Climate Change in North China Plain and Poyang Lake Region in China:Preliminary Findings and Research Plan Jikun Huang, Jinxia Wang and LinglingHou Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences 19 June 2013

2. Presentation • Project goals and objectives • Research design and data • Preliminary findings • Adaptation measures and determinants • Farmers’ perception on climate change and determinants • Research plan

3. Study Regions: North China Plain (NCP) and Poyang Lake Region (PLR)

4. Long term change of temperature in the NCP: 1960-2012 oC

5. Long term change of temperature in the PLR: 1960-2012 oC

6. Long term change of precipitation in the NCP: 1960-2012 mm

7. Long term change of precipitation in the PLR: 1960-2012 mm

8. Research goals The overall goals of this study are to improve adaptation strategies by conducting economic analysis and exploring appropriate technologies, policy, and investment options (TPI) to address immediate challenges and those posed by longer term climate variability and change in water and water related sectors in two of the most vulnerable regions in China, NCP and PLR.

9. Research objectives Obj. 1: Documenting historical and future change of climate, variability, their impacts on water, and the likely adaptation measures in NCP and PLR. Obj. 2:Identifying appropriate adaptive options and the constraints of their adoptions. Obj. 3:Assessing cost and benefit of major adaptation measures. Obj. 4: Building capacity for researchers, local policy makers and communities on water and adaptation to climate change.

10. Presentation • Project goals and objectives • Research design and data • Preliminary findings • Adaptation measures and determinants • Farmers’ perception on climate change and determinants • Research plan

11. Research design and data (1) • Adaptation to long run climate change: • Based on actual adaptation strategies of community (e.g., village) and individuals (e.g., farmers) in the past -- township and village surveys • Based on individual perception of climate change and their practices in water and water related sectors (e.g., crop) -- household and individual surveys

12. Research design and data (2) • Impacts and adaptation to extreme events: • Natural experiments: • Each province: select counties that experienced one relatively normal year and the other serious natural disaster year in recent 3 years: identify the impacts • In each county: select 3 townships with different water infrastructure (good, average and poor): identify effects of different infrastructure • Randomly select rural households • 10 hh/village; large variations in resilience

13. NCP : 15 counties, 45 IDs, 45 townships, 135 villages and 1350 hh in 5 provinces PLR : 10 counties, 10 IDs, 30 townships, 90 villages and 900 hhin one province

14. Training enumerators Conducting field survey

15. Household Survey: General Information • Household characteristics (e.g.,demographic data, human capital, employment, production assest, wealth, water related service, etc) • Decision makingby man and women • Past adjustmentsto climate shocks • Perceived change of climate • Opinions to adjust their perceived long term climate change and variability • …

16. Community Survey • Basic socio-economic characteristics: topography, soil types, transportation infrastructure • Water conservancy infrastructure: irrigation and drainage systems, drinking water facilities, and water transportation • Access to surface and groundwater resources, and change of water supply availability • Various damages from extreme weather events in the past decade • Adaptation measures adopted: technical, policy and institutional arrangement, and investment project • Costs and constraints to adopt various adaptation measures • …

17. Presentation • Project goals and objectives • Research design and data • Preliminary findings • Adaptation measures and determinants • Farmers’ perception on climate change and determinants • Research plan

18. Occurrence of Drought in NCP

19. Yield Reduction due to Drought in NCP

21. Adoption of adaptation measures by farmers, communities and government: cope with drought in the North China Plain (NCP)

22. Adaptation Measures Adopted by Households:Engineering and Non-engineering Measures Investment Maintenance Water saving technologies Farm management Risk management Engineering measures Non-engineering measures

23. Adaptation Measures Adopted by Households: Farm Management Measures Reseed, clean/ fitplant Change irrigation intensity Change irrigation date Change seed input Change fertilizer inputs Change pesticide inputs Change sow/ harvest date Change crop varieties

24. Adaptation Measures Adopted by Communities: Engineering Measures % Drainage/ irrigation station Drainage/ irrigation canal Bank Dam Pond Well Pump

25. Adaptation Measures Adopted by Communities: Capacity Building

26. Adaptation Measures Adopted by Government: Information Service and Policy Support Early Warning Information Policy Support

27. Why factors influencing farmers’ decision on adopting adaptation measures?

28. Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures by Farmers: Logit Econometric model • Disaster (D) Type of year (1=normal year;0=disaster year) • Early warning information service (I) Providing information before disaster(1=Yes;0=No); Providing information during/after disaster (1=Yes;0=No) • Capacity building (G) Water use associations(1=yes;0=No) Agricultural production association (1=yes;0=No) Whether the household joined in training(1=Yes;0=No) • Irrigation infrastructure (F) Dyke, Dam (1=yes;0=No) Irrigation and drainage stations (1=yea; 0=No) Number of tubewells • Household Characteristics (H) • Age • Education • Farming experience • Family size • Distance to agri. product shop • Distance to wholesale market • Number of relatives • Plot Characteristics (O) • Soil type (loam, clay) • Landform • Saline • Distance to home • Province Dummy (R)

29. Econometric results on the determinants of adoption of adaptation measures

30. Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: Year Type and Early Warning Information Service

31. Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: Capacity Building and Irrigation Infrastructure Condition

32. Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: household and plot characteristics

33. Summary on the Adoption of Adaptation Measures • In order to cope with drought, farmers, communities and government have made some responses by various engineering and non-engineering adaptation measures; • The adoption of adaptation measures by farmers is influenced by the adaptation measures adopted by communities and government; • Existing adaptation ability (e.g., irrigation infrastructure condition) also influences farmers’ behavior; • The adoption of adaptation measures by farmers is also influenced by the characteristics of households and community.

34. Farmers’ Perception on the Climate Change • How much percentage of farmers’ perception is right? • What factors influence the correction of farmers’ perception?

35. Farmers’ Perception on Last Ten Years’ Temperature and Precipitation

36. How Much Percentage of Farmers’ perceptions Is Correct?

37. Determinants of the Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Logit Econometric model • Policy (P) Early warning system Agricultural extension service • Social Capital (S) No. of relatives • Village Characteristics (V) Whether the village is linked or scattered Landform of the village (plain=1; hill=0) Soil type Whether irrigated by surface water Distance to the closest road •  Household Characteristics (H) • Age • Gender • Education • Whether household head is a village leader • Off-farm • Family size • Farm size • Total asset for production • Total asset for livelihood • Province Dummies(R)

38. Econometric results on the determinants of correction of farmers’ perception

39. Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Policy Support and Social Capital

40. Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Household Characteristics

41. Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Village Characteristics

42. Summary on Famers’ Perception on Climate Change • Only a few percentage of farmers’ perception on temperature is correct and half of farmers’ perception on precipitation is correct; • The correction of perception on temperature is significantly influenced by information and extension services provided by government, farmers’ social capital and some characteristics of households and communities; • The correction of perception on precipitation is mainly influenced by some characteristics of households and communities.

43. Presentation • Project goals and objectives • Research design and data • Preliminary findings • Adaptation measures and determinants • Farmers’ perception on climate change and determinants • Research plan

44. Research Plan Obj. 1: Finish literature review on climate change and water Obj. 2:Continue to conduct empirical analysis on the adoption of adaptation measures. Obj. 3:Conduct relevant surveys and finish analysis (both empirical analysis and modelling simulation)

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