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Card Play at MP

Card Play at MP. Part One. The Normal Contract. Make reasonable plays that risk the contract to gain overtricks A finesse that results in an overtrick or -1 A “percentage ” endplay. The Abnormally Good Contract. Make the Hand Use Safety Plays to Ensure a Good Score.

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Card Play at MP

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  1. Card Play at MP Part One

  2. The Normal Contract • Make reasonable plays that risk the contract to gain overtricks • A finesse that results in an overtrick or -1 • A “percentage” endplay

  3. The Abnormally Good Contract • Make the Hand • Use Safety Plays to Ensure a Good Score

  4. The Abnormally Bad Contract • Consider alternative contracts • Assume the cards lie unfavorably

  5. Don’t Overcomplicate it • Maximize Overtricks in Normal Contracts • Play Safely in Abnormal Contracts • Defend Based on Percentages • Always Consider Other Possible Results

  6. Restricted Choice – The Monty Hall Dilemma • With two equivalent honor cards outstanding, if one drops, it is better to finesse the other. The queen and jack are equivalent cardsThink of them as “goats”xx GG One CaseGxx G Two Cases • Pavlicek’sexplanation • AKxxxT987 AK9xQxx

  7. Vacant Places • Count the cards known to be held by the opponents • The “spaces” available for cards in question help suggest probability that a card is in a specific hand • E.g. When an opponent opens a 3-level preempt, they have 6 vacant spaces for cards in the non-preempt suit

  8. Determining the Card Combinations Possible • Number of possible combinations = 2N, where N = # of outstanding cards • E.g. If there are four cards outstanding, there are 16 total combinations • KT72 KT 72 -- • KT7 K7 K • KT2 K2 T • K72 T7 7 • T72 T2 2

  9. Calculating the % Success of a Line of Play • Compare relevant distributions to total possible distributions AKTxQxx The best play (in a vacuum) for four tricks is drop the J64 total combinationsx 2 (6-0) Irrelevant – Know to finesse or offside x12 (5-1) Irrelevant – Know to finessex30 (4-2) Jxxx xx exists 10 times ->x20 (3-3) xxx Jxx exists 10 times ->When the suit is played up to the finesse/drop decision, the holdings left are J654 32 P= 24.22% x (1/15) = 1.629 654 J32 P= 35.53% x (1/20) = 1.775 “When the defenders hold only insignificant cards, their following in a suit acts to eliminate the extreme splits while the relative probabilities of the remaining splits are unchanged from their original values.When the defenders hold significant cards in a suit, their following w/ insignificant cards increases the chance of an even split in the suit. With one honor missing, if the numbers of plausible plays reach equality for the remaining combinations, the relative probabilities are the same as would be calculated from the current vacant places” - MacKinnon

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