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Predictive Health and Society. Health is the essential infrastructure for all that humans are capable of being doing or becoming individually or together. Cost US spends more (15+% of GDP) US has steeper rate of cost increase. “Benefit” Shorter life expectancy in US
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Predictive Health and Society Health is the essential infrastructure for all that humans are capable of being doing or becoming individually or together
Cost US spends more (15+% of GDP) US has steeper rate of cost increase “Benefit” Shorter life expectancy in US Slower rate of increase in life expectancy American health compared to that of other developed countries “America's health care system is second only to Japan ... Canada, Sweden, Great Britain ... well, all of Europe. But you can thank your lucky stars we don't live in Paraguay!” - Homer Simpson We are at serious risk of losing our health while paying dearly for it
The Health/Disease Continuum Pre disease Early disease Late disease Normal Low risk Normal High risk D I S E A S E H E A L T H Predictive Health Contemporary Medicine
Predictive Health A personal matter
The Emory Model: A limited number of generic processes can define individual health and predict premorbidity DIABETES GENETICS IMPAIRED GLUCOSE TOLERANCE BEHAVIOR NEURO- DEGENERATIVE DISEASE INFLAMMATION EARLY COGNITIVE DYSFUNCTION ENVIRONMENT OXIDATIVE STRESS REGENERATIVE POTENTIAL Determinants of Health INCREASED CAROTID IMT ATHERO- SCLEROSIS IMMUNE HEALTH PSYCHIATRIC DISORDERS DEPRESSION Generic Processes ASYMPTOMATIC PRE-CANCER CANCER Premorbid Conditions
Predictive Health A societal matter
Health matters because it is inextricable from individual happiness, productivity and quality of life, but also because human beings do not thrive in units of one.
Humans don’t thrive in units of one • Individual health is defined in a social context • Defining societal health • Healthy societies healthy people • Changing the health system means changing society
Predictive Medicine What others are doing
Predictive Medicine • Duke University • Broad Institute • Washington University • Institute for Systems Biology • Johns Hopkins
Predictive Health and Society It takes a universe It takes a University
Research Institute for Predictive Health Population Biology Determinants of Health Systems Biology Ethics Some Enabling Disciplines Environment Public Policy Finance and Economics Genomics/ Metabolomics/ Proteomics Education Genetics Behavior Molecular Imaging Generic Pathways Bioinformatics Some Enabling Technologies Immunology and Inflammation Nanomedicine Development and Senescence Oxidative Stress Quantitative Medicine Regeneration and Repair Other Generic Pathways Novel Therapeutics Specific Diseases Cancer Cardiovascular Diseases Diabetes Other Diseases Neurological Diseases Chronic Lung Diseases
Why Emory University? • A focus on health • Generic processes as definers of health • A special environment • Unique combination of technologies • Integration of science, technology, ethics, humanities, law, business, health policy, economics • Systems science---cells to societies • Building bridges between population health and individual health
A Transforming Theme • A destination university---Emory, a recognized destination for the new biomedicine • Internationally recognized---New knowledge and practical experience with health care innovation will have global implications and will identify Emory as a leader in health care innovation with global implications • Inquiry-driven---The entire effort will be driven by a passion for new knowledge and how it can be used to impact individual and societal health. • Ethically engaged---Predictive health is fundamentally an ethical concept. • A diverse community---Diverse scholars and new definitions of health related diversity that transcend traditionally defined ethnicities. • Working collaboratively---The nature of the theme dictates dynamic interactions among a diverse group of scholars • Positive transformation in the world---It is difficult to imagine an effort with as great a potential to impact every aspect of society • Courageous leadership in teaching, research, scholarship, health care and social action---This is a bold theme with a grandly ambitious goal that integrates research, scholarship and education in an innovative effort aimed directly at revolutionizing care of people to preserve and prolong the health of individuals and of society.