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GOP Coalition 1968-2004

Key Groups Sunbelt Evangelicals Affluent suburbanites White working class. Key Policies Military spending “Traditional family values” Opposition to counter culture End support for racial equality. GOP Coalition 1968-2004. Silent Majority Speech

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GOP Coalition 1968-2004

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  1. Key Groups Sunbelt Evangelicals Affluent suburbanites White working class Key Policies Military spending “Traditional family values” Opposition to counter culture End support for racial equality GOP Coalition 1968-2004 Silent Majority Speech I know it may not be fashionable to speak of patriotism or national destiny these days. But I feel it is appropriate to do so on this occasion …And so tonight -- to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans -- I ask for your support Nov. 3, 1969

  2. 1948 Electoral College Map

  3. 1988 Electoral College Map

  4. 1992 Clinton v. Tsongas 1984 Mondale-Hart Old vs. New Democrats 2008 Hilary v. Obama 2000 Gore v. Bradley

  5. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon. 5% or less margin 2004

  6. 2008 Election • The Declining White Working Class: Still Central • Election Outcomes in Purple States • White College Graduates: Growing and Trending Democratic, Especially in Purple States • New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast Growing Purple States • It’s the Metros, Stupid • Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic • Source: Ruy Teixeira and William Frey, The Political Geography of America's Purple States: Five Trends That Will Decide the 2008 Election, Brookings Institution Oct 10.

  7. “Real Plumbers of Ohio” • Declining Income • average annual income of “plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters” $47,930. (BLS 2007) • Income increased 15.5% 2000-07, but consumer prices increased 17.7% • Health Care • 2000 57% of firms with less than 10 employees • 2000 45% of firms (Kaiser Family Foundation ) • Paul Krugman, Real Plumbers of Ohio, Oct 20, 2008

  8. Matt Dowd on Hispanic Vote • "We can't survive as a party without getting more of the Hispanic vote.” • “Both political parties understand that it's a demographic that is probably one of the most important – you know, who's going to have majority status in this country." • As a realistic goal, we have to get somewhere between 13 and 15 percent of the black vote and 38 to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote

  9. GOP- anti immigrant rhetoric • GOP Controlled House passes Sensenbrenner Bill- “felonization of all undocumented immigrants” • NRSC Ad links illegal immigrants to terrorists -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjVdALIgfBI

  10. Biggest Protests in a Generation

  11. Bye-bye GOP % Hispanic Vote, exit polls

  12. Oportunidad  BO:  I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message. • Voiceover: The cost of a college education is a real worry for many families. But under the Obama Plan a student can earn the first $4,000 of tuition through community service.Putting a college education within everyone's reach. And the Obama Plan offers scholarships to recruit more teachers to make sure our children are ready (smart/prepared).

  13. Ataques (Radio Version) • ANNOUNCER 1: Wow, have you heard the terrible lies that John McCain and the Republicans are saying about Barack Obama?  How horrible. • [ANNOUNCER 2:] Well, it doesn't surprise me.  The republicans will say anything to distract the public from the economy. • [ANNOUNCER 1:] My neighbor - who has 2 kids - lost her job and her health insurance last week.  And her husband, who works in construction, is about to lose his.  I don't want to hear any more attacks.  I want to know what the candidates will do for us. • [ANNOUNCER 2:] Well, that's why Barack Obama is my candidate.  Instead of continuing George Bush's same failed policies - like John McCain wants to do - Barack Obama understands what our community needs from a President. He has specific ideas to help us. • [ANNOUNCER 1:] Under Obama, the middle class will receive three times more relief than with McCain.  Obama will cut our taxes! •  [ANNOUNCER 2:] And what matters to me is that Obama has a plan to give health insurance to all.  My neighbor will be saved! • [ANNOUNCER 1:] Barack Obama and the democrats are the change we need.

  14. Why Not an EDM? • Swing Member of Coalition • College educated voters • White working class • Very Safe • Latinos/African Americans • Women

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