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Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care Needs LSE, Friday, 20 May 2011 The l ongevity revolution Jean-Marie Robi

Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care Needs LSE, Friday, 20 May 2011 The l ongevity revolution Jean-Marie Robine INSERM, Paris & Montpellier, France. How many newborn are becoming adults?. How far will the adult l ongevity go up? . Halley, first life table, 1693.

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Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care Needs LSE, Friday, 20 May 2011 The l ongevity revolution Jean-Marie Robi

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  1. Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care NeedsLSE, Friday, 20 May 2011The longevity revolutionJean-Marie RobineINSERM, Paris & Montpellier, France

  2. How many newborn are becoming adults?

  3. How far will the adult longevity go up?

  4. Halley, first life table, 1693

  5. Sweden, 1754-1756,data sent by Wargentin to Deparcieux

  6. Switzerland, 1876-1880

  7. Japan, 1950-1954

  8. Japan, 1950-1954

  9. Japan 1980-1984

  10. How long are adult life durations? Modal length of life (M) Standard deviation above M Maximum life span Distribution of the agesatdeath in Switzerland1876-1880, 1929-1932, 1988-1993

  11. Life expectancy, median life and modal ageat death, Switzerland from 1876 Cheung et al, 2006

  12. Japan 1980-1984

  13. Japan 2000-2004

  14. Compression of or shift in mortality ?

  15. Increase in the modal length of life (M), since 1751:a selection of 7 countries

  16. Correlation between the modal lenght of life (M) and the mean deviation above (eM) in 4188 life tables since 1751, males and females – (HMD)

  17. Correlation between the modal lenght of life (M) and the mean deviation above (eM) in 4188 life tables since 1751, males and females – (HMD)

  18. Change in the modal length of life and in SDM+ for women in Japan from 1950-54 to 2000-2004 Cheung and Robine, 2007

  19. Change over time in the distribution of the agesatdeath in France since 1827, female - for 100.000 newborn

  20. Emergence of the centenarians &Strong increase in the numbers of the oldest old people

  21. Change in the number of centenarians in Europe vs Japan

  22. More than 40,000 centenarians in Japan in 2009 August 14, 2010

  23. Change in the number of centenarians in Europe vs. Japan

  24. Europe vs. Japan Robine and Saito, in press

  25. Divergence, variability and uncertainty

  26. Divergence in life expectancyatage 65

  27. Divergence in life expectancyatage 65

  28. The centenarian rate in Europe Robine and Saito, 2009

  29. Are centenarian people healthy people?

  30. The few representative studies of centenarians have demonstrated that they are in relatively poor health with a significant proportion being bedridden and/or demented • only 1% of Italian centenarians are fully independent • none of them continued social or productive activities that could be considered as examples of successful ageing • On the other hand several studies suggested that these extremely old people were in relatively good health 5 or 10 years before (Christensen et al, 2008). Differential mortality must have eliminated the frailer dependant nonagenarians.

  31. Are older people more likely to become centenarians because they are in better health or because it is much easier to survive today? • In Denmark, where the number of centenarians is increasing relatively slowly, the functional health status of female centenarians (100) significantly improved over the last decade (Engberg et al, 2008). • On the other hand in Japan, where the number of centenarians has increased more than 3-fold every decade since the 1970s, occasional centenarian surveys demonstrated significant declines in the functional health status of Japanese centenarians.

  32. Are older people more likely to become centenarians because they are in better health or because it is much easier to survive today? • In Denmark, where the number of centenarians is increasing relatively slowly, the functional health status of female centenarians (100) significantly improved over the last decade. • On the other hand in Japan, where the number of centenarians has increased more than 3-fold every decade since the 1970s, occasional centenarian surveys demonstrated significant declines in the functional health status of Japanese centenarians.

  33. The Five Country Oldest Old Project (5-COOP): Relationships between the level of mortality selection and the health status of the oldest old Denmark, France, Japan, Sweden & Switzerland Robine et al, Centenarians today: New insights on selection from the 5-COOP study. CGGR 2011

  34. The oldest old support ratio

  35. World widedecline in the oldestold support ratio As the number of people aged 50-74 for each person aged ≥ 85

  36. Mortality trajectory

  37. Mortality trajectory with age

  38. Mortality trajectory… Robine & Vaupel, 2005

  39. Mortality trajectory… Robine & Vaupel, 2005

  40. Mortality trajectory… Robine & Vaupel, 2005

  41. Mortality trajectory… Robine & Vaupel, 2005

  42. Thankyou for your attention!

  43. Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care NeedsLSE, Friday, 20 May 2011The longevity revolutionJean-Marie RobineINSERM, Paris & Montpellier, France

  44. Change in the distribution of ages at death for women in Japan from 1950-54 to 2000-2004 Cheung and Robine, 2007

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