Requirements: Ecosystems and Climate Forecasting ecosystems events for ecosystem management

1. USVI Saba Tob BVI Cai Gre FWI Jam Col PR Bah TX FL-K Bel Cub DR Bar Mex FL Col-A Cay Ven Ber Percent of Coral Colonies Bleached by Jurisdiction Optimal Low Preparing Coral Reef Managers for Climate Change C. Mark Eakin1 (PRINCIPAL GOVERNMENT INVESTIGATOR), Tim Burgess2, Tyler Christensen2, Scott Heron2, Gang Liu2, Jessica Morgan2, Carl Nim3, Britt-Anne Parker2, William Skirving2, Alan E. Strong2 1NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, 2IMSG, 3Miami University (Ohio), • Requirements: Ecosystems and Climate • Forecasting ecosystems events for ecosystem management • Causes and consequences of climate change • Science: How can we improve the application of satellite data and models to serve the need for climate information by coral reef resource managers? • Benefit: NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program (funding source) • Marine Resource Managers / Policy Makers, Scientists, Public Climate Change Threatens Coral Reefs 2005 Caribbean Bleaching Coral reefs are uniquely sensitive to climate change. Sea surface temperatures are rising, causing stress-related coral bleaching. At the same time, the ocean is absorbing more carbon dioxide, lowering the pH. This ocean acidification reduces coral growth rates, compounding the ‘drowning’ of reefs caused by sea level rise. These threats are a serious concern to those whose livelihoods depend on coral reefs. In the US alone, coral reef fisheries are worth $100 million per year. Reef tourism adds $1.2 billion to the Florida Keys economy. Coral reefs also buffer coastlines against waves and storms, preventing property damage and saving lives. Most intense thermal stress and mass coral bleaching ever observed in this region. Ongoing collaborations are analyzing results of >1000 surveys from >50 managers, researchers, and NGOs in 25 jurisdictions (US State & Territories, Caribbean nations). Climate Change Information Products Training Resource Managers We have conducted a series of satellite tools workshops for reef managers. The training is designed to build capacity with resource managers so they can incorporate our remote sensing tools into their management protocols. Seasonal Outlooks Partnerships With Our Users Our main customers are resource managers, who need data on climate threats to coral reefs. Collaboration with users helps us gauge their information needs and improve our products. NOAA produces forecasts of ocean temperatures, as part of predicting our nation’s weather. We use these same models to predict coral bleaching risk, giving our users up to three months’ advance warning. Light Stress Damage Satellite insolation data pinpoint areas where high temperature and light combine to cause bleaching. The Florida Reef Resiliency Program Sea Surface Temperature from NOAA Satellites Coral Bleaching Surveys throughout the Caribbean in 2005 Operational global charts show accumulations of thermal stress, which leads to coral bleaching. Automated e-mails alert managers when their reefs are at risk. Data are updated twice a week. Ocean Acidification Ocean acidification is likely to have important consequences for coral communities in coming decades. Coupled satellite & coastal observing platforms are helping us assess their vulnerability. We’re extending in situ observations using satellite remote sensing to map changes in surface chemistry in response to ‘ocean acidification’. The many partners in FRRP seek to improve the health of Florida’s reefs and enhance the economic sustainability of reef-dependent commercial enterprises. Our monitoring data allow managers and scientists to prepare for changing conditions before bleaching begins. Coral Disease Outbreak Risk By assessing winter and summer temperatures, we can define areas with significant likelihood of disease. Coral Reef Targeted Research for Management Program CRTR is a global initiative to coordinate knowledge for improved coral reef management: a GEF - World Bank - University of Queensland program. NOAA Coral Reef Watch is a member of the Remote Sensing Working Group. Science Challenges: Addressing new environmental parameters influencing coral reefs Providing higher-resolution products to address user needs Next Steps: Working with STAR Science Teams to transition new data, products, and tools to address coral reef management needs Transition Path: Continue end-to-end approach from science teams to resource managers