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African Internet Performance, Fibres & the Soccer World Cup

African Internet Performance, Fibres & the Soccer World Cup. Prepared by: Les Cottrell SLAC , Umar Kalim SEECS,NUST/SLAC Presented at the Africa Regional Interest Group meeting Monday 5 th October 2009. www.slac.stanford.edu/grp/scs/net/talk09/i2oct09.ppt. Summary. Methodology

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African Internet Performance, Fibres & the Soccer World Cup

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  1. African Internet Performance, Fibres & the Soccer World Cup Prepared by: LesCottrellSLAC, Umar KalimSEECS,NUST/SLAC Presented at the Africa Regional Interest Group meeting Monday 5th October 2009 www.slac.stanford.edu/grp/scs/net/talk09/i2oct09.ppt

  2. Summary • Methodology • Current State • What is happening? • Impact • Next Steps

  3. PingER Methodology extremely Simple Uses ubiquitous ping >ping remhost Remote Host (typically a server) Monitoring host Internet 10 ping request packets each 30 mins Once a Day Ping response packets Data Repository @ SLAC Measure Round Trip Time & Loss 3

  4. Coverage • Monitors >40 in 23 countries – 4 in Africa • Algeria, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Zambia, • Beacons ~ 90 • Remote sites (~740) – 50 African Countries • ~ 99% of world’s population 4

  5. World Throughput Trends Derived throughput ~ 8 * 1460 /(RTT * sqrt(loss)) Mathis et. al Behind Europe 5 Yrs: Russia, Latin America, Mid East 6 Yrs: SE Asia 9 Yrs: South Asia 12 Yrs: Cent. Asia 16 Yrs: Africa Central Asia, and Africa are in Danger of Falling Even Farther behind In 10 years at the current rate Africa will be 150 times worse than Europe 1993

  6. Africa is huge, diverse & dreadful access Fibres • Hard to get fibre everywhere • ~ 1B people, over 1000 languages,multi climates Capacity From Telegeography

  7. Why does Fibre matter: Satellite & Min-RTT • GEOS (Geostationary Earth Orbit Satellite) • good coverage, but expensive in $/Mbps • broadband costs 50 times that in US, >800% of monthly salary c.f. 20% in US • AND long delays min RTT > 450ms • Easy to spot GEOS Terrestrial Minimum RTT (ms) Min- RTT from SLAC to African Countries

  8. What is happening • Up until July 2009 only one submarine fibre optic cable to sub-Saharan Africa (SAT3) costly (no competition) & only W. Coast • 2010 Football World Cup => scramble to provide fibre optic connections to S. Africa, both E & W Coast • Multiple providers = competition • E. Coast: Seacom & TEAMs landed Jul 2009, Seacom working

  9. Plans for New Sub-SaharanUndersea Cables to Europe and India by 2011 • Ambitious plans are once again underway to better-connect the African continent • The potential increase in capacity compared to now is 1000X • The issue is whether there is a sustainable market • Before the recession hit, outlook was at least one of these new cable projects would succeed this time http://manypossibilities.net/african-underseacables

  10. Impact: RTT etc. • As sites move their routing from GEOS to terrestrial connections, we can expect: • Dramatically reduced Round Trip Time (RTT), e.g. from 700ms to 350ms – seen immediately • Reduced losses and jitter due to higher bandwidth capacity and reduced contention – when routes etc. stabilized • Dramatic effects seen in leading Kenyan & Ugandan hosts 720ms • RTT improves by factor 2.2 • Losses reduced • Thruput ~1/(RTT*sqrt(loss)) up factor 3 Big jump Aug 1 ’09 23:00hr Median RTT SLAC to Kenya 325ms • Bkg color=loss Smoke=jitter

  11. From ICTP, Trieste, Italy • Even Bigger effect since closer than SLAC • Median RTT drops 780ms to 225ms, i.e. cut by 2/3rds (3.5 times improvement) Seems to be stabilizing Still big diurnal changes Aug 2nd

  12. Other countries 750ms 450ms • Angola step mid-May, more stable • Zambia one direction reduce 720>550ms • Unstable, still trying? • Tanzania, also dramatic reduction in losses • Ugandainland via Kenya, 2 step process • Many sites still to connect SLAC to Angola Aug 20 SLAC to Zambia Both directions? 1 direction Sep 27 SLAC to Tanzania SLAC to Uganda Both directions 1 direction

  13. Next Steps: Going inland • Connect up the rest of the sites & countries • Extend coverage from landing points to capitals and major cites • Need fibre connections inland Northern Central Southern

  14. Next Steps: Beyond Fibre’s reach • In areas where fibre connections are not available (e.g. rural areas), the main contenders appear to be: • wireless, e.g. microwave, cellphone towers, WiMax etc., • Low Earth Orbiting Satellites (LEOS) for example Google signed up with Liberty Global and HSBC in a bid to launch 16 LEOS satellites, to bring high-speed internet access to Africa by end 2010, • gigaom.com/2008/09/09/google-invests-in-satellite-based-internet-startup/ • and weather balloons • www.internetevolution.com/author.asp?section_id=694&doc_id=178131& • http://crossedcrocodiles.wordpress.com/2009/06/26/undersea-broadband-fiber-optic-cables-to-africa/

  15. Next Steps: Let’s get together • Get leaders such as universities, academic establishments (teach the teachers) to get togeher to form NRENs for country • Bargain for cheaper rates • BW most expensive worldwide ($4K/Mbps) • Then NRENS get together to create International eXchange Points (IXPs) • Avoid intercountry links using expensive intercontinental links via Europe and the US. From Broubecker Barry 2008

  16. Routing • Used to typically go through a satellite provider such as Newskies • Now TZ, UG & KE go via London and Teleglobe & terrestrial fibre S. Africa • IXPs starting up, e.g. • S. Africa direct to Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique • Burkina Faso direct to Mali, Senegal, Benin • Ubuntunet Alliance > GEANT • Founders: Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda South Africa • Joined by DRC, SD, TZ, UG Burkina Faso

  17. Impact for Science • African scientists isolated • Lack critical mass • Need network to collaborate but it is terrible • Brain drain • Brain gain, tap diaspora • Blend in distance learning • Provide leadership, train trainers Tertiary Education from http://www.worldmapper.org/ Cartograms from: www.geog.qmw.ac.uk/gbhgis/conference/cartogram.html Internet Users 2002

  18. Conclusions • Many problems: electricity, skills, disease, wars, poverty, conflict,protectionist policies, corruption • Current providers (cable and satellite) have a lot to loose • Many of these have close links to regulators and governments (e.g. over 50% of ISPs in Africa are government controlled) • Attractions: enormous untapped market, youthful population • Internet great enabler in information age • The fibre coming to Sub-Saharan Africa has great potential help catchup & leap forward • Still last mile problems, and network fragility • Leap frog: OLPC, net computer, smart phones

  19. More Information • Case Study: • confluence.slac.stanford.edu/display/IEPM/New+E.+Coast+of+Africa+Fibre • Ubuntunet Alliance • www.ubuntunet.net/ • Internet prices fall • www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/business/Internet_prices_to_fall_with_surge_in_clients_-_UTL_92117.shtml • MANGO-NET (Made in Africa NGO NETwork) • www.isgtw.org/?pid=1001999

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