Climate Change and NOAA’s Ecosystem Responsibilities: Potential Impacts & A Strategy for Progress

1. Climate Change and NOAA’s Ecosystem Responsibilities: Potential Impacts & A Strategy for Progress Steve Murawski NOAA Ecosystem Goal Team Lead NOAA Fisheries Director of Scientific Programs & Chief Science Advisor 14 May 2008 1

2. Overview • NOAA has direct responsibility to interpret and account for climate change and variability impacts for the natural resources and areas it manages • NOAA operational elements managing ecosystems should expect accurate and timely information to assess climate impacts • Many examples of Climate Impacts on NOAA Resources, but no coordinated, systematic approach for observations, predictions, peer review, use in management, legal interpretations & communication of climate information in executing its statutory responsibilities • hence, the need for a “Grand Plan”

3. Climate Change and Extinction Risks “Approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C (medium confidence).” - IPCC Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report

4. What do we Needto Accomplish? • The VADM asked a simple question: What is our “grand plan” for incorporating climate impacts into Living Resource Management Activities by NOAA? – We will help develop elements of that Plan (SOPs & agreements, priorities for science and data collection…) • In August 2007 the GAO issues a report on Climate Change Impacts for Federally managed species – NOAA’s response due in December 2008

5. August 2007 GAO Report “In general, resource managers lack specific guidance for incorporating climate change into their management actions and planning efforts. Without such guidance, their ability to address climate change and effectively manage resources is constrained.”

6. GAO Report: CLIMATE CHANGE: Agencies Should Develop Guidance for Addressing the Effects on Federal Land and Water Resources(August 2007) • “GAO recommends that the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, and the Interior develop guidance incorporating agencies’ best practices, which advises managers on how to address climate change effects on the resources they manage and gather the information needed to do so. In commenting on a draft of this report, the three departments generally agreed with the recommendation and provided technical comments, which GAO has incorporated into the report as appropriate” • “Resource managers at our workshop also said that climate change is not a priority, in part, because of limited support from agency leaders. Specifically, resource managers discussing the coasts and oceans ecosystem said that there has been little support from agency leaders to comprehensively address climate change issues”.

7. By December 2008… NOAA will engage in consultations within agency to identify climate information needs and capacities Written guidance will be provided to help resource managers address climate change effects (including where to go for site-specific information, best practices) NOAA will enhance its interagency dialogue on climate and ecosystem management, contributing to identification of best practices Initial NOAA Response

8. NOAA’s Authorities to Act: Impacts ofGlobal Change Drivers on Trust Resources • Magnuson Stevens Fishery Conservation & Management Reauthorization Act:(FMPs, National Standard 6, setting population size targets [rebuilding]; Protecting vulnerable Habitats, Essential Fish Habitat provisions) • Endangered Species Act:Factors in Listing Decisions; Biological Opinions (BiOPs) re. jeopardy determinations for projects, recovery plans • Marine Mammal Protection Act: setting optimum population sizes; minimizing human impacts from a variety of threats • Marine Sanctuaries Act: protect biological communities and habitats within sanctuaries, promote scientific research, enhance public awareness, and cooperate with global programs Continued…

9. …continued NOAA’s Authorities to Act: Impacts ofGlobal Change Drivers on Trust Resources • Coastal Zone Management Act/NERRS: Address coastal management issues through coordinated estuarine research; Enhance public awareness and understanding of estuarine areas; Promote collaborative estuarine research, improved understanding & management of estuarine areas • National Environmental Policy Act:Requires analysis of effects of cumulative environmental impacts • Coral Reef Conservation Act & Task Force:Managing and conserving coral ecosystems by identifying and addressing threats and issues driving the loss and degradation of coral reefs • International Treaties, Bilateral Agreements, Commissions & Councils(CCALMR, Arctic Council, ICES/PICES, IOC, Bilaterals…)

10. Magnuson Stevens Act Responsibilities • National Standard 6: “Conservation and management measures shall take into account and allow for variations among and contingencies in fisheries, fishery resources, and catches” • Some FMPs (e.g., Pacific Coastal Pelagics) provide adjustments in MSY for periods of low and high productivity influenced by climate variability – will become a more important issue in rebuilding plans and time frames • Optimum Yield “…is prescribed on the basis of maximum sustainable yield as reduced by any relevant economic, social or ecological factor.” N.B., Impacts rebuilding plans and definition of maximum sustainable yield

11. Fishery Management Process Climate change reflected in stock assessment process • Scientific stock assessments use best scientific information available • Climate change may affect important stock assessment parameters, including: • Natural mortality • Growth rates • Age at maturity • Recruitment Levels – leading to biomass targets

12. Endangered Species Act Species can be listed as threatened or endangered if its existence is determined by: • over-utilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes; • disease or predation; • the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; • other natural or man-made factors affecting its continued existence. If listed, projects that may contribute to these factors require Biological Opinions (BiOPs) on their potential jeopardy for listed species

13. Six Climate Change Issues – Living Marine Resources • Attribution of climate signals impacting ecosystems: long term change vs. natural variability • Ocean warming: impacts on distribution & productivity (phenology, production, invasives) • Impacts of loss of sea ice on living marine resources (at both poles) • Ocean acidification impacts on marine biota • Freshwater supply & resource management • Sea level rise (natural resource implications)

14. Loss of Arctic Sea Ice – Ecological Implications for NOAA September, 2007 Petition To List Ringed, Ribbon, Spotted , Bearded Seals NOAA Trust Resources MMPA + ESA +Arctic FMP

15. ESA Case Study: Central Valley Project and State Water Project Operations,Criteria and Plan (OCAP)BiOP/ California Chinook Salmon & Steelhead Freshwater & Climate • Chinook salmon and steelhead trout are listed endangered/threatened under ESA In the Sacramento River and related drainages in California • In 2004, NMFS consulted with the State and Federal water agencies and determined that the proposed joint operation of the State and Federal Central Valley water projects was not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of listed salmon and steelhead • Coalition of environmental groups filed suit regarding the BiOP for chinook and steelhead based in part on the fact that long-term climate impacts on water availability were not taken into account as part of the baseline • The Bureau of Reclamation, NMFS and CALFED have reopened consultations under Section 7 of ESA regarding the BiOP

16. Ocean Acidification: A Consequence of Human Production of Greenhouse Gasses – Ocean Impacts & NOAA Responsibilities Ocean Acidification That ‘other’ CO2 problem Value: Bivalves: $732M ex-vessel commercial value Crustaceans: $1,265M ex-vessel commercial value Combined : $1,997M ex-vessel commercial value (51% of commercial catch by $) • Potential impacts on shelled plankton, coral reefs (shallow and deep), bivalves and crustaceans, and food chains • Managed resources under Coral Reef Conservation Act, MSRA, ESA

17. Strategy for Incorporating Climate Change Issues into LMR Management Activities • NOAA operational entities identify, and prioritize climate change factors influencing MSRA, ESA, MMPA, NMSA and other statutes, identify current resources for analyzing effects • Engage a wide variety of NOAA offices & partners to assess requirements and capabilities and develop SOPs • Combine NOAA’s observations, models and forecasts of climate change impacts on resources • NOAA Climate Services, supported by appropriate LOs, provide internal customers relevant climate information to meet regulatory and legal requirements, what is “best available science”? • Develop consistent products, approaches and databases to address the ad hoc nature of some efforts to date (standards and updates), e.g., sea level rise scenarios consistently incorporate scenarios, observations and height information • Develop a strategy to communicate with regulators, constituents, and the public the impacts of climate change factors on resources and people managed by NOAA

18. Backup Slides

19. Trends in Sea Level Rise & Resource Impacts

20. SLR Example: How will Protected Species critical habitats change with SLR in the NWHI Monument? Example Whaleskate Island French Frigate Shoals, NWHI • Once an important nesting island for Hawaiian green sea turtles and a primary pupping site for endangered Hawaiian monk seals • Few feet above sea level; what would be the impacts of observed rates of SLR on Protected Species breeding and nesting habitat? • 2006 study published by NOAA scientists in the journal Biological Conservation (Baker et al. 2006) 1963 2002 monk seals

21. Current and projected maps of four Northwestern Hawaiian Islands at mean low water (MLW) with minimum (9 cm), median (48 cm) and maximum (88 cm) predicted sea-level rise by 2100 (IPCC, 2001). A) Lisianski Island; B) East Island, French Frigate Shoals; C) Trig Island, French Frigate Shoals; D) Southeast Island, Pearl and Hermes Reef Conclusion: as much as 40% Loss in protected species breeding & nesting areas

22. Coastal Pelagics FMP &Climate Variability – Pacific Sardine Long Term Variation in Sardine Based on scale samples in sediments The FMP adjusts MSY for periods when PDO Influenced productivity is high or low, Important question: how do we know when we In a phase change?

23. Coral Conservation Act & Task Force • Developing Response Plans to Climate Change and Coral Bleaching • A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching • Provide managers with information and tools to respond to impacts of climate change on coral reef ecosystems. • Articulates state of knowledge on the causes and consequences of coral bleaching and highlights how to develop bleaching response plans and other management strategies.

24. National Marine Sanctuary Act • The National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) mandated by the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA), to protect biological communities and natural habitats within sanctuaries, promote scientific research, enhance public awareness, and cooperate with global programs. • NMSP, with the NOAA Climate Program Office developed and published a Policy Statement on Climate Change to provide direction and/or guidance for conservation management actions. • NMSP convened a climate change working group and developing a long-term programmatic initiative to address climate change issues. • Example: Monterey Bay Ocean Time Series Observations indicate ocean temperature is rising; subsurface nitrate concentration, chlorophyll and primary production are decreasing; and species assemblages are shifting.

25. Coastal Zone Management Act • NOAA provides support to state coastal management programs to incorporate climate science into state and local decision making processes. • State coastal management programs are actively addressing the mandate in the Coastal Zone Management Act to anticipate and plan for a substantial sea level rise • The Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Program published a draft policy to “accommodate a rate of expected 3 to 5 foot rise in sea level by 2100 in the siting, design, and implementation of public and private coastal activities and to insure proactive stewardship of coastal ecosystems under these changing conditions.” • Maryland sea level rise considerations were included in the recent Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan for the Maryland Coastal Bays National Estuary Program; the Chesapeake 2000 Bay Agreement; the Baltimore and Prince George’s County Hazard Mitigation Plans; the Coastal Bays Hazards Initiative; and the Worcester County Comprehensive Plan. • OCRM’s National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) developing plan to mobilize existing research, education and stewardship resources to monitor climate change ecosystem impacts, consider mitigation and adaptation strategies, and enhance public understanding of climate change issues.

26. Fishery Management Process • 8 Regional Fishery Management Councils prepare fishery management plans and regulations • MSA requires use of best available scientific information • NEPA requires analyses of cumulative impacts on the environment • Council process is transparent and public

27. Fishery Management Process Climate change reflected in stock assessment process • Scientific stock assessments use best scientific information available • Climate change may affect important stock assessment parameters, including: • Natural mortality • Growth rates • Age at maturity

28. Legal Mandates: Endangered Species Act (ESA) Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Protected Resources

29. Protected Resources Activities • Coordinated through regional offices and a headquarters office located in Silver Spring, MD • Partner with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in implementing the ESA. • Activities with pressing climate information needs include: • Marine mammal stock assessments • Listing of species as endangered or threatened under the ESA • Designation of critical habitat • Interagency consultation on long-term Federal actions (e.g. water projects, forest management) • Habitat conservation plans • Recovery planning • Marine animal health

30. Which Species are Currently Protected? ESA • 14 marine mammals • 7 sea turtles • 1 Atlantic salmon • 28 Pacific salmon • 8 other protected marine species including elkhorn and staghorn corals, sturgeons, sawfish, white abalone and Johnson’s sea grass • additional ESA listed species are managed by the FWS MMPA • 170 marine mammal stocks under the MMPA—of these stocks, six have been identified as depleted.

31. Protected Resources Management Processes Overview • Assess status and trends of populations for marine mammal stock assessments and ESA listing of species at risk or extinction • Determine “critical habitat” based on essential habitat features and what habitat is necessary for species conservation • Determine current and future factors (or “threats”) causing species’ decline when listing species and for recovery/conservation planning, which includes development and prioritization of actions to mitigate threats • Within the context of a species’ status and the past, current, and future threats to a species, analyze whether proposed Federal actions are likely to jeopardize the continued existence of listed species or adversely modify their critical habitat (this analysis leads to the preparation of a biological opinion)

32. ESA Listing Criteria ESA section 4(a)(1) factors for listing of species • the present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range, • overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes, • disease or predation, • the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or • other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued existence.

33. Interagency ConsultationJeopardy Assessment Process Assess the Species Exposure Identify the Action Area Identify the Action Deconstruct the Action Assess the Species Response Assess the Risk to Individuals Assess the Risk to Populations Assess the Risk to “Species” Jeopardy/ Adverse Mod Conclusion Cumulative Effects “Species” Status Environmental Baseline

34. Climate Information Needed • Monitoring and forecasting of climate conditions including- • sea level rise • ocean and river temperature • sea ice • ocean acidification • ocean productivity • freshwater supply • Often need information that is scaled down to relatively small geographic areas • Need to know the projected extent and rate of change over both the short and long term, and under various emissions scenarios • Climate monitoring/forecasts must be coupled with ecosystems and species monitoring/research that is targeted to assess species level impacts of a changing climate

35. Examples of How Climate Information Fits into Management Processes • determining whether to list ice seals under ESA based on risk of extinction due to extent and rate of sea ice habitat loss • assessing threats and extinction risks for corals based on coral disease, growth, and mortality rates associated with changes in ocean temperature and ocean acidification • predicting extent and rate of sea level rise in the Northwest Hawaiian islands and the impact on habitat loss for Hawaiian monk seals • developing and prioritizing actions to mitigate threats for climate sensitive species, in light of various climate change scenarios • need to consider long and short term trends in fresh water supply in determining whether long term projects, such as a water development project, will jeopardize the continued existence of effected salmon species or adversely modify their critical habitat • considering warming of sea turtle nesting and associated impacts on offspring sex ratios (which are temperature dependent) in determining status of sea turtle populations • considering how sea level rise and severe storms may impact red mangroves, which are essential features for smalltooth sawfish critical habitat

36. Observation Capabilities Needed to Meet Management Requirements • Characterizing, understanding, and predicting global climate variability & ecosystem impacts requires data at global to local scales. • Long-term monitoring and characterization of ocean and coastal conditions & ecological variables is fundamental to understanding and mitigating affects of climate change. • Improve use of existing capabilities • Integrate existing systems and data (IOOS, IEAs) • Improved resolution and regional observations • Develop new capabilities • Biological and chemical sensor development • Models & Assessments incorporating climate variables • Improve products • Ecological forecasting, Risk Assessment & Management Strategy Evaluations

37. Fishery Management Process Climate change will affect fisheries by changing fishery habitat • MSA requires designation of essential fish habitat (EFH) and measures to protect EFH • EFH designations are updated every 5 years using best available scientific information • Information about Climate Change and its impact on EFH will be included in these updates