EROS DATA CENTER International Program

1. EROS DATA CENTER International Program 1. Acquire, Archive, and Distribute Remote Sensing Data 2. Support Global Res. and Dev. (FEWS, Land Cover) 3. Develop Applications for Monitoring & Nat. Res. Mgt. 4. Implement Internet Data Distribution and Map Serving Systems 5. Cooperative Projects and Capacity Building U.S. Geological Survey EROS Data Center

2. Carbon Sequestration Projects • Sequestration of Carbon in Soil Organic Matter (SOCSOM) in Senegal Funded by: USAID/AFR, Rockefeller Fd. • Central Asia Carbon Funded by: USAID/G, USDA/ARS, USGS • USDA/ARS C Flux Network Funded by: USAID/G, USDA/GCRP, USGS Carbon Sequestration Minor Projects • Parcel Identity and Commodity Certification • CGIAR Center Workshop: Spatial Data Infrastructure & Distribution • Sustainable Tree Crops Program (STCP)

3. Sequestration of Carbon in Soil Organic Matter (SOCSOM) in Senegal SOCSOM Goal:“…provide quantitative analyses of the environmental, ecological, and economic potential for the sequestration of carbon in soil organic matter in spatially explicit sites and to define the necessary socioeconomic enabling conditions and policies to implement successful projects.”

4. The Mission of SOCSOM is to insure that the developing countries in semi-arid and sub-humid parts of Africa have the capability to take advantage of the opportunities to become participants in, and beneficiaries of, international efforts to mitigate climate change and restore productivity. • The Premise is that “Farming Systems that contribute directly to production and to the preservation of natural resources must be developed, along with socially, politically, and economically acceptable methods of implementation.”(Batjes, 1999)

5. Workshops Defining SOCSOM 1) EDC, 1999: “Carbon Sequestration in Soils and Carbon Credits: Review and Development of Optionsfor Semi-Arid and Sub-Humid Africa” 135 African, European, and North American stakeholders, experts, brokers, buyers and donors 2) Erice & Geneva, 1999-2002: World Federation of Scientists (Permanent Monitoring Panel on Desertification) and the World Meteorological Organization 3) First SOCSOM workshop in Dakar, Senegal: “Carbon Sequestration In Soils” Defined SOCSOM Feasibility Sites encompassing Senegal; Collaborative; Prototype 1.Biophysical Potential 2.Socioeconomic Incentives/Constraints 3.Capacity Building 4.Regional Prototype (Project Level Assessments & Implementation) 4) Carbon Sampling and Landscape Modeling

6. The Global Carbon Cycle & Climate Change(1990s) Atmosphere (2000s) Gt C 1.5 ppmv y-1 3.3 Atmosphere 760 Biomass 500 to 620 Soil O and I C 2,500 (@ 3.3 to 4.2 X atmosphere) (@ 4.0 to 5.7 X biomass) Imbalance due to fossil fuels Exchange with Biota is 10-20 X 750 63.0 6.3 1.6 60 Plants Fossil Deposits 500 About4,100 Soil O C 91.7 90 2000 0.7 Oceans UnitsGt CGt C y -1 38,400

7. Two fundamental components in this global effort to combat climate change • Mitigation • Largely responsibility of developed countries • Large roles to be played by developing countries • Sinks for mitigation • Leap frog energy technologies • Adaptation • Requires: technology, institutional, and financial mechanisms • Large needs in developing countries • Special roles for developed countries

8. Atmospheric CO2 Net Ecosystem Exchange = NEE NEE = GPP –Respiration (plant, animal, soil) -Erosional change Where, GPP = Gross Primary Production If NEE = +, Carbon accumulates = sequestration ecosystem is a sink for carbon If NEE = -, Ecosystem is a source to the atmosphere GPP Photosynthesis Soil Carbon Release (Respiration) Respiration Eros ion Upper SOM (Rapid Decomposition) Lower SOM (More Stabilization) C

9. Contribution of Land Cover Change & Management to Global CO2 Emissions:Changing Roles of Tropics and Temperate Zones: Present Contributions by Humans 20% of total emissions -concentrated in tropics Historical Contributions by Humans 43% of total emissions = 185 Pg (petagrams) emitted -1/3 before 1850 -concentrated in temperate Future??By 2020developing countries will account for 60% of global energy use Dubious Legacy = Potential Boon “In principle, the losses can be reversed.” -restoration,-management -by creating and maintaining “Sinks” e.g., Soil O M and Forests

10. Sub-Saharan Africa Most Susceptible to Climate Change, e.g., IPCC and GCM • Present: • Mean temps have increased • Increase has impacted agriculture & natural systems • Due to human activities • Future: • Temp increases are large, e.g., 1 to 5 C • Evapotranspiration increases due to low ppt increases • Greater interannual variability • Higher frequency of extreme events • Especially severe impacts in semiarid areas, e.g., Sahel

11. The Pattern of Precipitation in Sahel

12. The Pattern of Biodiversity in Senegal (Gonzalez, 2001

13. The Pattern of Projected ppt & Temperature in Senegal

14. The Pattern of Projected Precipitation and Temperature Changes in Africa with Emphasis on Senegal

15. Mitigation Hazard Impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability RiskofDamageandconsequential Losses Sahel is Highly Vulnerable to Climate Change SOCSOM Exposure Sensitivity (Response) Character, magnitude and rate of Climate Change SOCSOM Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which the system isexposed, itssensitivityand itsadaptive capacity.

16. Mitigation Hazard Exposure Sensitivity (Response) Impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Exposure Hypothetical example of the impact of crop yield to increased mean temperature Temperate Tropical Sensitivity of crop yield Temperature

17. Why SOCSOM in Arid and Degraded Lands? • A Special Role for Degraded and Desertified Lands • C Sink is large = 2 billion ha • Degradation is severe = often 50 to 90% C lost • 75% is localized in tropics = opportunities for DC • May avoid negative environmental effects, e.g., N losses • Special Benefits • Combats desertification • Recovers soil fertility • Increases agricultural Intensification • Protects biodiversity and conservation • Mitigates climate change • Incorporates Non-Annex I countries as Global Partners in climate change mitigation • Opportunities for Flexibility Mechanisms, e.g., offsets & markets

18. Guiding Principles for SOCSOM 1) Conversion of savanna, shrub, and grassland systems of the Sahel to agriculture, exemplified by Senegal, resulted in loss of biomass and SOM carbon to the atmosphere 2) Agricultural extensification and decreased fallow periods, resulting from population pressure, and the lack of nutrient inputs resulted in reduced fertility & agricultural productivity and the loss of woody biodiversity (Gonzalez 2001). 3) Many soils are now infertile with low SOM; and farmers remain impoverished. In sub-Saharan Africa one-third of the populations were undernourished in 1997-1999 (FAO 2002) = ¼ global undernourished. 4) Major international workshops have identified multiple benefits associated with the re-establishment of SOM in these degraded and non-sustainable systems. -EROS Data Center, 1999 -Dakar, Senegal, 2000

19. Guiding Principles for SOCSOM 5) These woodlands, agricultural lands, and grazing lands have significant potential for sequestering large amounts of carbon - and increasing productivity. 6) We have a reasonable understanding of the biophysical drivers of carbon sequestration and have made substantial steps to measure, monitor, and model the quantitative responses to potential management strategies. 7) The contribution to climate mitigation that can be made by sequestering carbon in semiarid and degraded lands is now becoming understood. 8) There are well-established carbon markets now in operation but without substantial inclusion or participation of Sahelian projects or countries. 9) Economic analyses of various strategies need to be quantified in the context of the social systems for each potential project area.

20. Guiding Principles for SOCSOM 10) Policy support for smallholder participation and an understanding of appropriate socio-economic incentives for participation need to be developed. 11) Fully operational projects need to be implemented to provide experience for developing countries, international donors, brokers, and carbon credit buyers. 12) Full and effective implementation of sequestration of a magnitude great enough to provide substantial global impact will require robust institutional mechanisms. 13) This may all demand that developed and developing countries jointly develop the scientific basis for societal decisions about the management of CO2 and the carbon cycle and that the value of “ecosystem services” be considered in development strategies and official development assistance programs.

21. Specific Objectives in SOCSOM 1.Quantify the carbon status and sequestration potential across agroecological zones in Senegal to define the biophysical potential, evaluate possible management impacts, and approach a full assessment in three representative areas. Podor Bambey Velingara

22. Specific Objectives in SOCSOM Bambey area was emphasized Expected Requirements: -broad-based community support -enhanced smallholder livelihoods -100,000 t C, to approximate a sale of $1 million US -attractive to potential carbon traders 2. Understand and quantify the socioeconomic incentives and requirements as well as policy issues necessary to implement a project level (100,000 t C) activity.

23. Specific Objectives in SOCSOM Joint collaboration in field work, analysis, interpretation, and publication “Landscape Carbon Sampling and Biogeochemical Modeling” (Woomer et al. 2001) National Carbon Team “Carbon Specialist Team” sampling/analyses project design simulation analyses project implementation 3. Develop national capacity for measuring, monitoring, simulating, and implementation .

24. Specific Objectives in SOCSOM Major agroecological zones are included Sahel land cover performance based on Senegal prototype to be undertaken with 20-year archive Launched by National Carbon Team and Project Sub-teams through this workshop!! 4. Generalize the results to national and regional scales. (5. Prepare for Real Carbon Project Implementation with transfer of C credits, payments, and community benefits.)

25. Carbon Sequestration & Credits: Questions to be Answered for Africa • Can large areas for projects be identified? • Can economic and environmental cost-benefit analyses by simulated for local and regional applications? • Can we identify optimal areas for sequestration projects • Can sequestration improve local economies? • Can sequestration provide environmental benefits? • Can local communities be organized to implement required Natural Resource Management options? • Is there a mechanism to insure contracts? • How do “we” convince buyers to secure contracts? • Can activities be linked to agroforestry programs? • Can National Policy issues be resolved? • Can small, poor countries be “fast” and compete?

26. SOCSOM Estimates for Senegal (preliminary) • Realistic Soil C Seq Rate = 0.1 to 0.2 t C/ha/yr • New Steady State = 25 years • Total Sequestration = 2.5 to 5 t C/ha If a reasonable Project Size is 100,000 t, (ca. $1M) then Land Area Required/Project = 20,000 to 40,000 ha Land Holders Required = 5,000 to 20,000 Constraints: Culture, Incentives, Organization, Land Ownership, Soil C ownership,Land Tenure, Liability, National Capacity, National Administration

27. What Would a Typical Purchase Agreement Include? • An Option to Purchase a Future Stream of CERs, typically over a period of 10 to 20 years • A contract in which a seller undertakes to install new technology or management for 5 to 10 year periods • A schedule and agreement for the minimum CER value that will be attributable to the proposed action, as well as the interim measurement, verification and reporting obligations of the seller • An agreement as to how additional CER benefits will be shared in the event that the CERs attributable to the practice are understated in the contract • An agreement as to how additional measurement, verification and monitoring costs will be shared in the event that the government introduces different/more costly reporting requirements than those specified in the contract • An agreement on the disposition of the changed value of CERs in the event the buyer sells the credits for higher value than secured in the contract • A minimum Commitment of 100,000 metric tons ?

28. Recommendation for Strategic National Positioning in the Offset & Related Markets • Make a Strategic Decision to “Sell or Hold” or “Negotiate Wisely” • Establish Policy on Activity Projects, Area Projects, National Accounting vs “Private” projects • Other Administrative Requirements Needed • Establish “Office” for National “C & Climate Mitigation” Promotion, Education, Advice, Facilitation (need a strong Domestic Infrastructure) • Institute Procedural Rules for Implementation • Support & Enhance a Specialist Carbon Team –national and regional • Clarify Rules, Verification, Monitoring, Accounting • Standardize Formats, Baselines, Additionality, Leakage • Develop a Transparent Parcel & C Identity, Monitoring and Verification System: Start with an active/accurate/accessible Carbon Web Site • Provide Assurance on Liability and Insurance • Develop Public Relations, Contact Brokers/Industry, Gain Credibility, Secure a World Bank Bio Carbon Fund or other award

29. Recommendation for Strategic National Positioning in the Offset & Related Markets • Other Administrative Requirements Needed (Cont) • Conduct a Detailed Market Analysis • Identify, Enumerate, Prioritize Potential Projects • Assurance of Benefits for Host Country & Local Communities • Capacity building to facilitate adaptation • Technology transfer • Local investments at community levels • Environmental • Economic • Social • Sustainable Development • Evaluate and Develop a Secure Risk/Transaction Environment • Enforcement of Agreements • Currency controls • Maintain a Strong Presence at International Meetings • Decide to Become an Active Participant and take advantage of Early Actions

30. 8.If carbon credit trading becomes possible, Africa can position itself to become a major carbon seller to industrialized countries. • This could produce a “win-win” economic opportunity that is environmentally friendly • may facilitate the willingness of Annex I countries to meet “stringent” emission caps • has the potential to transfer needed capital directly to the severely marginalized rural sector in developing countries • can serve as incentives to organize village and regional cooperative projects for self improvement and global climate mitigation

31. Carbon Sequestration & Credits: Integration of GIS, RS, & Simulation Modeling • Two Approaches to Measure C Sequestration across “large” and Diverse Spatial Areas (from point source data) • Measure changes in Carbon Stocks in permanent experimental and control (dynamic baseline) plots • Requires Landscape Stratification Land Cover, Topography, Soil, Management, History • Requires detailed, accurate, verified, soil sampling/analyses • Measure changes in CarbonFluxesin land cover types and management (= Land Cover Performance) • Both Require RS & GIS for stratification, verification, quantification, extrapolation • Both Require Simulation Modeling for spatial quantification, analyses of steady states, scenario evaluation, and hysteresis effects

32. Management Impacts on Carbon Flux and Stocks Century Model Projections for a US site % C in Soil Conversion of grasslands to wheat agriculture by the FSU was not sustainable and decreased %C by 30% “Decades” of years

33. CENTURY C Flow Diagram Ps NPP CO2 in Atmosphere H Plant Biomass H2Osoil Tsoil NPP = net primary productivity t = material turnover time H2Osoil = soil water content Tsoil = soil temperature D = decomposition Mineral N Active SOM t < ~1 yr D Passive SOM t > ~1000 yrs Slow SOM ~10 < t < ~50 yrs Plant growth (NPP) fixes atmospheric CO2 into plant biomass. Dead plant biomass supplies the active and slow Soil Organic Matter (SOM) pools. Decomposition of dead plant material and SOM supplies mineral N for plant growth and respires organic C back to CO2. H2Osoil and Tsoil control plant growth and decomposition rates. -SOM C levels are a function of inputs from plant or animal material and outputs from decomposition. -Agriculture is a net source of atmospheric CO2 because harvesting decreases soil inputs and cultivation increases decomposition rates.

34. CENTURYSOM Pools ACTIVE Microbial biomass and labile materials Decomposes in ~1 year or less 1-3% of SOM SLOW Material somewhat resistant to decomposition Decomposes in ~10-50 years 30-50% of SOM Subject to perturbation Agriculture can mine this pool of C and N PASSIVE Humus and other highly stable compounds Decomposes in > ~1,000 years 30-50% of SOM Larger proportion in fine textured soils A T M O S P H E R E ACTIVE SLOW ? PASSIVE ?

35. CENTURY simulations suggest: • Conventional agriculture in Senegal mines soils of C and nutrients • Coarser textured soils have less C in the native condition and SOM is depleted more quickly compared to finer textured soils • Soil amendments will increase crop yields • but will not lead to significant amounts of C sequestration in soils • Reversion to the native savanna will sequester C • Carbon Sequestration and Ag improvement will depend upon nutrient management, agroforestry, intensification, and savanna commons • An integrated assessment is required

36. Summary: Priority Needs for C Projects for Africa • Complete a large Quantitative Feasibility Project Study • Senegal Biophysical potential Socioeconomic Requirements Policy Implications • Extrapolate regionally: West Sahel • Provide Basic Training and a Mechanism to Integrate West Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa • Establish Centers for C Measurement/Monitoring • Support National Action Plans for Carbon and Climate Change • Define and Integrate Global Stakeholders • Support the Implementation of at least one Project