MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

1. WP 19Science & Technology Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013 MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

2. Work Package Main Objectives Objectives of WP19 : - prepare service evolution of the MFC and TAC,- focus on cross-cutting R&D issues shared by several production centres,- define priorities considering the developments in MyOcean andthe interfaces with longer-term R&D projectsthat will develop at national or international level around the GMES sphere. MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

3. Specificity of MyO-2 R&D • MyOcean2 R&D activity is connected to the longer term strategy of the ocean community (EuroGOOS, GODAE, DRAKKAR/NEMO, etc) • External scientific benefits are included through the scientific and technical watch • Relevant external scientific and technical advances can be taken into account and integrated into the Tier-1 work plans, reviewed on a yearly basis • Tier-1 R&D activities in all Production Centres (WP5-15) • Common cross-cutting activities: • - Product Quality, • - Multi-Year Assessment • - S&T Evolution

4. Partnership WP 19 Science&Technology Evolution HZG Scientific strategy definition and planning Observations, data assimilation and uncertainties NEMO developments and applications Coupled forecasting development HZG CNRS Mercator NERSC DMI IFREMER CNR met.no CNRS BSH CMCC HZG UKMO DMI IFREMER met.no HZG ECMWF Mercator UKMO INGV NERSC DMI MHI CNR met.no CNRS HCMR SMHI FMI NERC HZG IMS-METU NEW No internal calls NEW • The role and responsibilities of each partner (25 altogether) • The modifications from MyOcean1 MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

5. Role of Partners and Links to GMES Projects More detailed presentations of major achievements and future development: Thursday, WP19 Workshop. Please, interested attend. OPEC Biogeochemical & ecological parameters SANGOMA New assimilation techniques MyWAVE Ocean surfacewaves modelling OSS2015 Biogeochemicalproducts

6. WP19.2.1 Modelling and parameterization of key physical processes for regional seas and open oceans (NOC, lead, HZG, CNRS, UKMO, CNR, INGV, DMI) • 19.2.1a Tidal Ocean development • wetting-drying capability for near coastal NEMO applications (barotropic) • Further work: baroclinic version • 19.2.1b Upper ocean processes • Parameterization of the effects of submesoscale eddies on the mixed-layer, air-sea fluxes parameterizations,Langmuir mixing in the surface layer is now properly resolved,Modifications in the general length scale models to account for Stokes drift • Further work: expected modifications of NEMO code. • 19.2.1c Diapycnal processes • Minimise numerical diffusion in NEMO, Implemented Smagorinski diffusivity scheme, new vertical coordinates, k-omega model (Tests in NEMO AMM) • Further work: investigate problems with coastal intensification, apply to other regions. • 19.2.1.d Overflow and exchange at sills (IBI, Baltic) • Gibraltar (tides and bottom friction, enhanced vertical diffusion over sills) • Danish Straits • Further work: extending the sensitivity experiments to vertical mixing and advection schemes, use 0.5 nm resolution in the operational DMI model. • 19.2.1.e Resolving the diurnal cycle • hourly anomaly SST field that produces a reduction of the diurnal oscillation • The Diurnal OI SST field resulting from the blending of model and observations via optimal interpolation, well reproduces the diurnal cycle.

7. 19.2.2 NEMO configurations for seas dominated by fresh water runoffs (HZG, Lead, FMI, DMI, SMHI, MHI, Mercator) • A. Perform reference simulations and compare with currently used models • Mercator Océan • simulations from 2007 until real time have been performed with the global ¼° which include the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea • North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea system at 1/12° which include only the Baltic Sea. • In real time the new version of the global system based on the global 1/12° will be available from the V3 of MyOcean in April 2013. • DMI • comparison of HBM with NEMO results • HZG • Coupled North Sea-Baltic Sea NEMO • FMI • additional work is required on e.g. boundary conditions and atmospheric forcing. Simulations (T0+12) are therefore delayed. • B. River runoff implementations / C. Revisit of river runoff parameterisations • Discussion will be organized after the plenary E-Hype talk on Thursday. • Need to experiment with parameterizations which suits the North Sea and Baltic sea at the same time. • D. Monitoring of R&D progress • FMI organised a meeting in Helsinki on 3.10. 2012. • Organise a meeting at SMHI in Norrköping in 2013, in conjunction with an already planned NEMO BaltiX cooperation meeting. • Better interact with the Black Sea community (Workshop on Friday). • E. Maintance of the preoperational setup • Work to set up a preoperational configuration is well under way. • Coordinate with SMHI who were not involved at the beginning in these activities.

8. WP19.2.3 Connecting open ocean and regional seas and inter-basin coupling (Mercator, lead, UKMO, CNRS, HZG, MHI, INGV, HCMR, IMS-METU, met.no, NERSC) • Goals: • prepare the real-time operational downscaling of regional systems from the global ocean system • interconnect the Med MFC and the Black Sea MFC through Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits • improve the coupling between physics and BGC, implementing online degradation of the resolution within NEMO • Systems considered: • Downscaling from GLO to NWS • Met Office decided to use the GLOBAL system products once they are available in real-time, to be able to test the forecast done in real-time. • Downscaling from GLO to MED • develop the use of dynamic boundary data from the GLO system • connect to the new GLOBAL system product (especially switch from the 1/4° to the 1/12°). • Problem: Provide boundary data from the global without the steric contribution • Downscaling from GLO to ARC • Today, the ARC system runs completely independently from the GLOBAL system. • This work begins April 2013; it is led by met.no in strong collaboration with NERSC and Mercator. • Downscaling from GLO to IBI • the IBI system is nested into the global • Interconnect the Med MFC and the Black Sea MFC through Bosphorus and Dardanelles • Use unstructured grid model • idealized geometry of the Marmara Sea (with Straits), • realistic geometry of the Marmara Sea model with idealized initial condition. • Physical biological coupling (not yet started)

9. WP19.2.4 NEMO sustainable development for regional configurations and operational purposes(CNRS, lead, UKMO, NOC, Mercator, INGV) • Achievements • for the first time the inclusion of the tangent and linear model • An IO server suitable for HPC (tested up to 8000 cores) • a stand alone surface model to run independently bulk formulae and/or sea ice models • simplification of biogeochemistry interface and interfacing with BFM model • improvements for regional configuration (vertical coordinates, OBC) • first attempts to include stokes drift action • in term of physics a total reformulation of sea and mass flux, allowing to run in a consistent non linear free surface with sea-ice. • Further developments • Version 3.5 ready in June 2013 • Wave-current interactions have to be investigated in priority • Consolidation and valorization of the existing new features (like assimilation component): a possible special issue on NEMO.

10. WP19.3.1 Enhancement of the product quality by using data from HF radars and assimilation into nested model systems(HZG, lead, BSH) • Achievements • Data analysis • HF radar data acquired in the German Bight. • Three antenna stations providing surface current data with 20 minute time intervals on a 2 km grid. • Comparisons between different numerical model and observation data sets. • Comparisons with data provided by the operational MYOCEAN system (FOAM AMM7): ocean currents at hourly time steps. • Further comparisons were performed with output from the 1 km model used for the operational forecasts at BSH and with GETM (General Estuarine Ocean Model). The overall agreement is quite good in terms of major and minor axis, inclination and sense of rotation of tidal ellipses. • Larger differences were however found for the residual currents. • Future works • Different upscaling techniques for an assimilation system will be investigated. • Furthermore tide gauge and satellite altimeter data will be added to the analysis. • The potential of HF radar data for the correction of different types of numerical model errors, e.g., timing of the tidal wave, residual currents etc., will be further analysed.

11. WP19.3.2 Improved error modelling and uncertainty estimation (CMCC, lead, CNRS, HZG, Mercator) • Goal/rationale: • develop methods for improved analyses and error estimates on MyOcean MFC products. • implement different perturbation techniques with the aim of generating ensemble simulations for further use in background-error covariance estimation from the set of the ensemble anomalies. • Achievements/results • The mean effect of the stochastic perturbation leads to a more realistic description of the large scale circulation, like the Gulf Stream position. • In the global ¼° ocean analysis system the observation error variance on SST is well tuned, as the temperature and salinity in situ observation error variance has to be changed depending on the region and depth. • Future works: • use of ensemble-derived background-error covariances in a variational analysis system. • apply an ensemble assimilation method to correct the mesoscale structures of the North Atlantic • demonstrate applications to improve the analysis of storm conditions • Analysis error and observation impact should be validated before being systematically applied. • Consolidate with innovative ensemble methods tested on smaller benchmarks in the SANGOMA project and consider a definitive choice about the method used.

12. WP19.3.3 Efficient ensemble-based analysis schemes(CNRS, lead, NERSC, Mercator) • Aim: • improve the performance of ensemble-based analysis schemes in case of non-gaussian distributions by • using anamorphic transformations to compute the updates • modifying the inversion approach (i.e. using the Bayesian framework to compute the posterior distribution). • Achievements/results • A review of anamorphosis transformations and ocean uncertainties: Ocean Modelling (Brankart et al., 2012). • A library of elementary functions which permit to define and use a local anamorphic transformation based on the background error were developed and tested . • The library has been linked with some diagnostic tools • The background error in the Mercator assimilation scheme (SAM2) is represented by an ensemble of multivariate state vectors defining a subspace of the control space. • Future works: • implementation of this methodology in the Mercator assimilation system (SAM2) • using the Bayesian framework is still too expensive to support implementation into real-size ocean models. • Problems with non-gaussian distributions motivate investing time for core developments of the sea ice models, in particular their rheology.

13. WP19.3.4 Assimilation of new types of satellite observations (CNRS, met.no, Mercator, DMI, Ifremer, HZG, CNR, NERSC) • Aim: • enhance the assimilation capacity of operational systems in such a way that a maximum of data from various sources are effectively used to update the ocean state as accurately as possible. • Achievements/results • Assimilation of sea-ice properties • A multi-variate Ensemble Optimal Interaction (EnOI) was set up into DMI's HBM model and ready for ice concentration data assimilation in the Baltic Sea. • Preparation of surface salinity maps: • Data is available (but this was not communicated), has to be tried for assimilation. • Assimilation of SSS and SST data: • due to the lack of SSS maps, this activity has been re-organized: assimilation of monthly climatological SSS data from Levitus combined with SST data from Hurrell in global NEMO configuration at 2°x2°. The recommendation is to include uncertain atmospheric parameters in the state vector (state vector augmentation). • Assimilation of ocean colour observations • North Atlantic NEMO configuration at 1/4° coupled to the LOBSTER ecosystem model. The first assimilation approach considers a low-rank Kalman filter to update the biogeochemical state. • Parameter estimation based on the assimilation of Globcolour data products • Future works: • The coupled North Atlantic benchmark is currently updated by replacing LOBSTER with the state-of-the-art PISCES model, which is used to produce biogeochemical fields using the global Mercator setup.

14. WP19.4.1 Global coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization and forecasting(UKMO, lead, ECMWF) • Achievements/results • 1. Global coupled model development • recommendations for optimal settings of the NEMO TKE scheme for use in the latest releases of Met Office coupled and forced models. • The use of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model improves the forecast performance relative to the current approach of using persisted SST anomalies. • Interfacing of WAVEWATCH3 to OASIS3 has now been successfully implemented. • coupling frequency and issues around the initialisation of coupling fields have been explored. • Further clarify the impact of wave breaking in NEMO. • 2. Global coupled model initialisation • the fit to ocean / atmosphere observations in the coupled model is much improved when ocean / atmosphere assimilation is performed, with results that are comparable to those from the equivalent ocean / atmosphere only systems. • further investigation is needed on the surface salinity and anomalous precipitation.. • 3. Assessment of global coupled forecasts • The performance was very close to that of the FOAM forecasts, the main area where performance differed was in the Arctic • Possible inconsistencies between the forcing of the ice model during the analysis. Work is underway to resolve this. • Work is now underway to investigate whether increasing atmosphere resolution in the coupled forecast system has an impact on the forecast performance. • 4. Impact of biological coupling on air-sea fluxes

15. WP19.4.2 Regional ocean-wave coupling(HZG, lead, Ifremer, DMI, met.no) • Achievements/results • In WAM the depth and/or current fields can now be non-stationary, grid points can fall dry and refraction due to spatially varying current and depth is accounted. • In the circulation model introduce the depth dependent radiation stresses and Stokes drift (Mellor, 2008). • 1. Impact of hydrodynamic forcing on wave modelling results • The hydrodynamic forcing significantly impacted the numerical simulations in shallow water areas close to the coast and on the tidal flats in the Wadden Sea (rms~30%). • In the tidal inlets large Doppler shifts result in differences between the coupled and uncoupled run reaching up to 30% for the wave period. • wave period measurements were reproduced much better, when the hydrodynamic forcing was applied. • modification of the wind-wave generation, with an increase in cases of opposing wind, and a modification of wave dissipation by the increase in steepness for waves against accelerating opposing currents have been investigated. • 2. Impact of wave forcing on hydrodynamic modelling results • Coastal wave set up by 2-3%. • Surface currents are changed as much as up to 7% under moderate wind conditions. • Better agreement of coupled simulations with the ADCP data. • The strongest impact is observed under storm conditions (affect tidal dynamics) • HBM implementation of the wave induced momentum contribution as additional driving force in the momentum balance equation solver is completed. • Effects of waves on the freshwater budget: 30% reduction in fresh water export to the ocean during a storm with important consenquences for coastal water quality. • Further works • Runing fully coupled models is under development • Operational implementations will be tried. • Improve cooperation with MyWave

16. WP19.1 • REA organized GMES-related project meeting on 24 May 2012 in Brussels which supported joint initiatives between MyOcean R&D and GMES projects. • NEMO meeting, June in Metoffice was attended by many MyOcean R&D partners and possible interfacing was discussed. • NEMO Baltic meeting, Helsinki, November 2012 • Black Sea-Med Sea meeting Istanbul, July 2012 • MyOcean Science Days conjointly with GMES partners

17. WP19.1.2 Long-term scientific planningR&D GMES/Copernicus Trends, Cross-cutting themes: • Addressing new areas • Coastal ocean, bathymetry and bottom processes, marine infrastructures, environmental assessment and monitoring (MSFD), criteria for selection of priority areas, new technologies, ensemble and super-ensemble modelling. • The best user product • Link with other thematic areas such as energy and environmental assessment, identification of stakeholders and users, develop «integrated products», dissemination and training, data assimilation has to also be developed in emergency response situations. • Designing our systems • OSE and OSSE (the gaps in the observation systems), how the sampling errors compare against instrumental errors, demonstration and different test-cases, linking the existing systems (global / regional / coastal), combining satellite and in situ data with a major focus on the assessment of the impact of Sentinel missions, trade-off between model resolution and assimilation cost, as well as between the amount of data used and the resulting capacity of data assimilation, addressing economical issues, such as what is the optimal cost of observational networks. • System connections • Coupling at the atmosphere-ocean interface, downscaling and upscaling, modern interfaces between systems, improving uncertainty estimates for coastal observations.