1 / 35

The Future of Transportation: Driving Forces for the Airline Industry (2020-25)

The Future of Transportation: Driving Forces for the Airline Industry (2020-25). Jean-Paul Rodrigue Associate Professor Dept. of Global Studies & Geography Hofstra University New York, USA. The Future of Mobility: The Views of a Transport Geographer. Socioeconomic forces Aggregate demand.

mave
Download Presentation

The Future of Transportation: Driving Forces for the Airline Industry (2020-25)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Future of Transportation: Driving Forces for the Airline Industry (2020-25) Jean-Paul Rodrigue Associate Professor Dept. of Global Studies & Geography Hofstra University New York, USA

  2. The Future of Mobility: The Views of a Transport Geographer • Socioeconomic forces • Aggregate demand. • Preferences. • Technological forces • Performance. • Input costs. • Regulatory forces • Competition. • Operations. Infrastructures Passengers Freight Information Interactions (Flows) Locations (Nodes)

  3. An Accessible World… With Limited Expected Changes Source: Nelson (2008)

  4. Economic and Business Cycles Long term trends linked with paradigms shifts and incremental changes. How the current phase of mal-investment could unfold.

  5. Cumulative Modal Contribution to Economic Opportunities Industrial Revolution Mass Production Globalization Telecommunications Air Roads Railways Economic Opportunities Canal shipping Maritime shipping Horses 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

  6. Paradigm Shifts and Incremental Changes • Revolutionary changes • Completely new technology. • Create new markets and growth opportunities. • Often marks the obsolescence of an existing technology: • Modal shift. • Can paradigm shifts be predicted? • Incremental changes • Improvement of existing technology and operations. • Leads to increases in productivity: • More capacity. • Lower costs. • Better performance. • Possible to extrapolate.

  7. Past Trends and Uncertain Future • Cyclic character of transport innovations • Innovations lead to a wave of development. • A cycles starts with a revolution and evolves incrementally. • Introduction: • Private entrepreneurs and innovators. • Growth: • Fast adoption; Often involves a “paradigm shift” event. • Maturity: • Maximal spatial coverage. • Government involvement (investment, regulations, etc.) • Rationalization/obsolescence: • Diminishing returns (Segment or system-wide). • Possibility of nationalization. • A mix of regulations (protect public interests) and deregulations (increase productivity).

  8. Technology “Hype” Cycle Visibility Utility Inflated expectations Productivity peak Delusion Learning curve Introduction Abandonment Hype Phase Realization Phase

  9. Growth of the US Transport System, 19th – 21st Century 4% Canals Paradigm shift 1825 Peak year 1836 3% Rail 2% Roads Air 1869 1969 1913 Maglev 1825 1836 1891 1946 2001 1% Δt= 55 years Δt= 65 years Δt= 70 years Δt= 30 years 0% 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

  10. Blowing Bubbles: From Technology to Commodities Commodities / Trade Bubble Tech / Stock Bubble Housing Bubble

  11. “We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know . . . and those who don't know they don't know.” John Kenneth Galbraith Forecasting: A Lesson in Humility… and Futility Failure and potential misallocations. Linear thinking versus economic, social and technological forces.

  12. Flying Car Concept, 1951

  13. Flying Car (Spinner) in Science Fiction (Blade Runner, 1982)

  14. World Air Travel and World Air Freight Carried, 1950-2007; Are We at an Inflexion Point? “Monkey Curve” Recession and regionalization

  15. Peak oil or Peak Mobility? Are energy issues an overstatement? Secular inflationary cycle in the price of energy and commodities Potential for demand destruction

  16. The Peak Oil Debate: A “Normal” Assumption

  17. West Texas Intermediate, Monthly Nominal Spot Oil Price (1970-2009) Third Oil Shock Second Oil Shock 2 1 D First Oil Shock C A B

  18. Major Oil Price Fluctuations

  19. Air Transportation Has Some Room for Substitution

  20. Strategies Used by Airlines to Save Fuel

  21. Principle of “Demand Destruction” Quantity Q1 ΔQ Q2 ΔP P2 P1 Price

  22. Annual Vehicle-Miles Traveled in the United States and Year-over-Year Changes, 1971-2009 Recession End of the motorization cycle Slow down of suburbanization Aging of the population

  23. Population 60+, 1950-2005, With Projections to 2050

  24. Network Structure Regionalism or globalism? Modal shift Thinking “outside the aircraft”

  25. World’s Major Gateway Systems, 2006

  26. World Cities, Hubs of Regionalization

  27. Characteristics of Major Air Travel Markets: Expected Changes

  28. Deregulation Favored Regionalization: Reemergence of more Point-to-Point Services Before Deregulation After Deregulation Hub Hub

  29. Travel Times before and after the Introduction of a High Speed Train Service (hours)

  30. Low-Cost Carriers are a Wild Card

  31. Thinking “outside the aircraft”: Air Travel as an Intermodal Transport Chain

  32. McNamara Terminal, Detroit

  33. Maglev Exiting Pudong Airport, Shanghai

  34. Aeotropolis Developments

  35. Diffusion of a Pandemic Through a Global Transportation Network B - Translocation A - Emergence C - Diffusion D - Pandemic

More Related