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Car Time: Updating onroad temporal profiles

Car Time: Updating onroad temporal profiles. Alexis Zubrow 1 , Chris Allen 2 , and James Beidler 2. 1. EPA OAQPS and Region 1; 2. CSC. Temporal profile overview. What do temporal profiles do? Generally: distribute emissions annual -> month, month -> day, day -> hour

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Car Time: Updating onroad temporal profiles

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  1. Car Time:Updating onroad temporal profiles Alexis Zubrow1, Chris Allen2, and James Beidler2 1. EPA OAQPS and Region 1; 2. CSC

  2. Temporal profile overview • What do temporal profiles do? • Generally: • distribute emissions annual -> month, month -> day, day -> hour • the “when” of emissions • Onroad (i.e. SMOKE-MOVES): • distribute vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from month-> day, day->hour • impacts rate-per-distance (RPD) processes, i.e. emissions from on-network • impacts total emissions: how much VMT vs what is the temperature at a specific hour • Problem: previous onroad diurnal profiles vary by road only

  3. 2011NEI and MOVES • 2011NEI: first time EIS accepted MOVES inputs • 32 S/L/T provided MOVES inputs for 2011NEI v1 • Individual submissions consisted of series of county databases (CDBs) • Each CDB consisted of set of tables • e.g. VMT, VPOP, speed distributions, age distributions, I/M programs, etc. • dayvmtfraction – distribution VMT within week • hourvmtfraction – distribution VMT within day • Not all tables were updated by S/L/T

  4. 2011NEI and MOVES (cont) • Data mining opportunity • 1,363 CDBs • 1,839,097 hrvmtfraction records (non default) • 1,013,853 dayvmtfraction records (non default) • Flagged “bad” profiles • Consolidated duplicate profiles • 627,550 day profiles • 89,304 hour profiles • Developed scripts to average across various dimensions and to create LOTS of plots • Focused on diurnal profiles • Day of week profiles were unchanged

  5. Road type and SCC SMOKE MOVES 1-to-many mapping SCCs have more road types, but may not be useful to differentiate to this level

  6. Source type and SCC MOVES SMOKE • many-to-many mapping • Overlapping definitions source type (MOVES sourceTypeID) and vehicle type (SMOKE SCC7) • Complicates comparison of MOVES and SMOKE temporal profiles • Plan to revise SCCs for MOVES2013 to make mapping 1-to-1

  7. Essex NJ, example LDGV urban restricted, weekday HHDDV urban restricted, weekday

  8. Dimensions of variation • Previous diurnal profiles varied across road type and day only • MOVES based profiles could vary across: • Vehicle type • Road type • Day (weekday vs weekend) • County

  9. Variation in MOVES Inputs

  10. Using S/L/T profiles • When should we use submitted profiles for “self”? • Criteria: • At least as much variability as the previous SMOKE profiles • Vary by road type and/or vehicle type • Minor transformation from MOVES • Averaging over source type to get SCC7 (SMOKE vehicle type) • NJ example: • Varies by county, road, and vehicle (for most counties) • Doesn’t vary by weekday/weekend • Used county specific profiles for all weekday profiles

  11. Profiles for “the rest” • What should we do for states that didn’t submit or for S/L/T that didn’t satisfy our criteria? • Options: • Use historic SMOKE profiles • Map counties to similar counties • Develop national profiles from subset of S/L/T profiles

  12. National profiles: overview • Using S/L/T profiles to create national profiles • Criteria: • Varies by road • Varies by vehicle • May or may not vary by county • Treat weekday and weekend separately • Process: • Develop state average profile by vehicle/road/weekday or weekend • Average state profiles to develop national profiles

  13. National profiles: overview It’s like cooking…

  14. National profiles: state averages NJ, average HHDDV urban restricted, weekday PA, average HHDDV urban restricted, weekday

  15. National profiles: weekday example National LDGV urban restricted, weekday National HHDDV urban restricted, weekday

  16. National profiles: weekend example National LDGV urban restricted, weekend National HHDDV urban restricted, weekend

  17. 2011 platform profiles

  18. Future work • AQ sensitivities • For later versions of 2011 platform • Outreach to S/L/T on specific questions about submissions • 2011 NEI v2: • Outreach to S/L/T on potential uses of MOVES inputs • Specific outreach to update temporal related tables • Incorporate temporal profiles from specific studies • For 2014 platform • New SCCs simplify process (MOVES 2013) • Continue with outreach to S/L/T on need for this data

  19. Acknowledgments Dave Brzezinski and Harvey Michaels (OTAQ) Alison Eyth, Marc Houyoux, Rich Mason, Norm Possiel, and Brian Timin (OAQPS) Vernon Hughes (ARB) Click and Clack

  20. Extra Slides

  21. SMOKE weekly profiles

  22. SMOKE diurnal profiles weekday

  23. SMOKE diurnal profiles weekend

  24. National profiles National LDGV rural restricted, weekday National HHDDV rural restricted, weekday

  25. National profiles National LDGV rural restricted, weekend National HHDDV rural restricted, weekend

  26. National profiles National LDGV rural unrestricted, weekday National HHDDV rural unrestricted, weekday

  27. National profiles National LDGV rural unrestricted, weekend National HHDDV rural unrestricted, weekend

  28. National profiles National LDGV urban unrestricted, weekday National HHDDV urban unrestricted, weekday

  29. National profiles National LDGV urban unrestricted, weekend National HHDDV urban unrestricted, weekend

  30. Fulton, GA weekly profile

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