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Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser, Neville Reid, Sunny Wong

CMAQ PERFORMANCE AND ASSESSMENT OF THE TRANSBOUNDARY INFLUENCES DURING LONG-TERM MODELLING IN ONTARIO. Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser, Neville Reid, Sunny Wong Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, Canada 3rd Annual Models-3 User's Conference

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Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser, Neville Reid, Sunny Wong

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  1. CMAQ PERFORMANCE AND ASSESSMENT OF THETRANSBOUNDARY INFLUENCES DURING LONG-TERM MODELLING IN ONTARIO Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser, Neville Reid, Sunny Wong Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, Canada 3rd Annual Models-3 User's Conference October 18-20, 2004Chapel Hill, NC

  2. Modelling domain

  3. Sub domains (Ontario’s communities)

  4. Modelling Approach The modelling has been done for the May through September 1998 period. The modelling was done for a base case and then with Ontario’s anthropogenic emissions shut off. Evaluation of the modelling results ( base case) for ozone and PM2.5 were made in 12 major Ontario communities. Assessment of transboundary influences were made both during high concentration episodes and on cleaner days.

  5. Evaluation of CMAQ Performance • Analysis of time series and frequency distributions for modelled and observed data in each subdomain separately for every month • Detailed investigation of modelled/observed discrepancies ( backtrajectory analysis, satellite images, etc.) • Analysis of chemical composition of PM2.5 • Analysis of correlation between observed/modelled data

  6. Time series of ozone concentrations , GTA______ - modelled ______ - observed O

  7. Time series of PM2.5 concentrations, GTA______ - modelled ______ - observed

  8. Frequency distribution of ozone, GTA - modelled - observed

  9. Frequency distribution of PM2.5, GTA- modelled - observed

  10. O3 and PM2.5 time series, GTA, July

  11. Backward trajectories at GTA, June 30 – July 2

  12. Satellite image of forest fires, James Bay, July 1, 1998

  13. PM2.5 time series, July 1 – 3 observed data excluded

  14. Time series of ozone and PM2.5, GTA, August 1998

  15. Analysis wind from EDAS archive, Aug. 24, 1998

  16. Peak ozone concentration, Aug.24, 1998

  17. Modelled wind on August 24, 1998

  18. Number of days with high O3 ( > 65 ppb) and PM2.5 ( > 20 ug/m3) concentrations

  19. O3 and PM2.5 concentrations on “Clean”, “Dirty” days and on average

  20. Chemical composition of PM2.5, May 1998

  21. Chemical composition of PM2.5, July 1998

  22. Correlation coefficients between observed and modelled data

  23. Percent change in Windsor with Ontario emissions eliminated OOzone PPM2.5

  24. Percent change in the GTA with Ontario emissions eliminated Ozone PPM2.5

  25. Conclusions • The modelling assessment has been performed for both ozone and PM2.5 over a 5 month period in 1998 • Although there were some discrepancies between modelled and observed data for individual days and episodes, the differences appear to be random due to small shifts in the meteorological fields. • The model/monitoring comparisons indicate that the model performed well overall. • Zeroing-out Ontario’s emissions showed small impacts in southeastern Ontario with larger influences on PM2.5 in the GTA/Hamilton areas and on ozone east of the GTA.

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