1 / 24

Demand, Supply and Affordability: Review of ‘The Numbers’ Professor Glen Bramley

IPPR Seminar on South East. Demand, Supply and Affordability: Review of ‘The Numbers’ Professor Glen Bramley. Outline of Contribution. Overall household numbers - sources of growth - interpretation of recent trends - implications for planning South East Composition of demand and supply

may-gibson
Download Presentation

Demand, Supply and Affordability: Review of ‘The Numbers’ Professor Glen Bramley

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. IPPR Seminar on South East Demand, Supply and Affordability:Review of ‘The Numbers’Professor Glen Bramley

  2. Outline of Contribution • Overall household numbers- sources of growth- interpretation of recent trends- implications for planning South East • Composition of demand and supply • Locational strategy • Market responses to planning changes • Affordable housing need & supply- scale of problem- mix and cost of solutions

  3. Household Growth in South East • South East high growth region for a long time • London transformed from declining to growing • ‘Greater S E’ taking up more of growth • Recent reduction in S E growth a ‘blip’? • Evidence of tightening land constraint

  4. Supply isn’t Responding

  5. Barker’s Diagnosis • Low and declining levels of housebuilding • Weak response of supply to prices, -> high and volatile prices • Long run real house price rise +2.4-2.7% p a • Affordability worsening, wealth gap widening • Labour mobility & econ growth restricted • Loss of economic ‘welfare’ (e.g. smaller houses)BUT • To be weighed against environmental benefits of planning restrictions

  6. Taking Your Eye off the Ball

  7. Migration • Migration the dominant factor in S E growth • Strong movement from London to S E • Pressure in London from natural change & international migration • S E now net exporter to surrounding regions • Outflow from London increasing • But more of this going to other regions • Tight land constraint in S E diverting migrants elsewhere

  8. International Migration • Big increase in net and gross inflows in 1990s • Data remain problematic • Many explanatory factors- easier travel - EU expansion & integration- favourable economy – past migrations- political instability - HE sector • London dominant destination • S E receiving 10k net, 57k gross pa (ave 10 yr) • Indirect London pressure more important

  9. Household Composition • Growth mainly due to population numbers • Most of net growth is single person households • Caution about implications for dwelling size/type • Private sector output polarised, but mainly larger • Social sector builds more small & flats • Arbitrary discounting of young singles questionable

  10. What Number to Plan For? • SEERA consulting on range 25.5k-32k • In my view more realistic figure would be 40k • Straining credibility to see London building 48k (vs 15-19k recent actual); maybe 30k • Realistic to assign half overspill to S E (32+9=41) • Correcting recent underperformance gives 38k • LA’s own expectations are 38k • Economically dynamic region: jobs:housing bal • Barker affordability targets will require substantial increase in S E

  11. Locational Strategy • Existing SCP focuses on Bucks & Kent • Strongest economic growth is to the west • ‘Mega-city region’ perspective also points this way • Little apparent stomach for economic restraint • Therefore a strong case for more planned growth in Oxfords, Berks, Hants, W Sussex

  12. Market Simulation Model • Releasing more land -> less than proportionate increase in output (e.g. 100% -> 45%) • Implies more/larger sites built out more slowly • To counter this needs direct delivery vehicles • Large output increase gives moderate price falls (e.g. 45%->5% in this case – maybe more…) • Concentrated in one area -> more net migration • Difficult to meet affordability goal by this route alone

  13. Affordability, Need & Supply • Special run of affordability model (district level) • Projection assumes some price correction • Adjustment for wealth • S E 2nd worst after London; variation within reg • Net new needs>feasible programme in S E & London (even maximising LCHO & planning) • Current ADP<feasible prog, in south generally • Net cost of prog for S E £660m, vs ADP of £300m • Larger total build number would help bridge gap • But backlog would remain

  14. Seminar Questions • 40,000 a year + • Yes, but not 1:1; case for DDVs • (Yes, with adeq investment) • More in growth areas to west • (No comment) • Broad range of working and other households • Both, including intermediate LCHO;each strategy in isolation not enough.

More Related