Dynamics in gpu market

1. Dynamics in gpu market - Is the discrete GPU a dinosaur?

2. Jon Peddie Research

3. Agenda – What the Roadmaps Say

4. Market dynamics

5. Strong Market Good Growth

6. PC Platforms

7. Graphics Chips

8. The igp Integrated Graphics Processor

9. GPU Segments

10. Basic Intel PC Architecture System memory High-speed SDRAM All that other stuff: USB, CD\DVD, HDD, audio, PCI, parallel serial, 1394, keyboard, IR, etc. FSB Intel Processor North Bridge South Bridge Memory controller The interface: PCI Express Graphics Processor Unit GPU) Integrated Graphics Processor ( IGP) Unified Memory architecture (UMA) VGA, DVI, Display Port

11. IGP Shipments

12. The end of the igp Don’t be sad – it’ll be OK

13. Introduction of theEpg & HPU The Integrated Processor Graphics chip

14. First Generation • The first versions of this new design can be found in Intel’s Clarksdale i5 processor, a four-core CPU with an IGP in a multichip package. Clarksdale i5 First EPG

15. Introducing the EPG • The Integrated PROCESSOR Graphics • Clarksdale’s graphics are UMA • With the memory controller embedded within the CPU there is a tighter coupling and a higher bandwidth capability. • Thus Clarksdale has good performance at nominal screen resolutions (i.e., 1280 x 1024.) • Ivy Bridge will be much better, Haswell even more

16. Performance of EPG

17. Desktop EPG Replaces IGP

18. Notebook EPG Replaces IGP

19. PC Segments Desktop Notebook Workstation (Professional) Enthusiast/Workstation (Gamer/Professional) Enthusiast (Gamer) Desktop Replacement (Enterprise & Consumer) Performance (Multimedia Consumer) Thin & Light (Consumer & Enterprise) Mainstream (Consumer & Enterprise) Ultrathin (Consumer) Value & Nettop (Enterprise & Consumer) Netbook (Consumer)

20. PC Segments Graphics Desktop Notebook Workstation (Professional) Discrete GPUs Two or more GPUs Enthusiast/Workstation (Gamer/Professional) Discrete GPUs Discrete GPU Enthusiast (Gamer) Desktop Replacement (Enterprise & Consumer) Discrete GPU Performance (Multimedia Consumer) CPU with embedded GPU Thin & Light (Consumer & Enterprise) I G P CPU with embedded GPU Mainstream (Consumer & Enterprise) Ultrathin (Consumer) I G P Value & Nettop (Enterprise & Consumer) Netbook (Consumer)

21. First Fully Integrated EPG • 2H’10 AMD shipped samples of its Fusion Llano processor to its OEMs. • A fully integrated HPU fabricated in a 32nm process • It was a 4 core CPU with a 32 or greater core GPU • First GPU to be built in SOI. • ATI has demonstrated transistor packing getting 1,600 cores in a 334mm2 die

22. Llano Block Diagram Core 1 Core 2 Core 3 Core 4 512kb L2 Cache 512kb L2 Cache 512kb L2 Cache 512kb L2 Cache 1024kb L2 Cache 6MB L3 Cache System Request Interface Crossbar Switch DDR3 MC HyperTransport I/O

23. Performance of GPUs Speculated EPGs will be a real inflection point

24. Inflection point

25. An Inflection Point • The EPG is an inflection point • One that has been speculated, and worried about for years – has LSI integration gotten to the point that the discrete GPU will be relegated to a small and declining portion of the market?

26. Self Perpetuating • If that happens, where will the R&D budget come from to develop the next generation of GPUs? • The design cycle and cost for a modern GPU is incredible compared to just 10 years ago.

27. Development Costs • To get the ROI for that kind of investment the GPU suppliers have to sell not only high-end chips but also midrange derivative versions. • If, however, the midrange is satisfied by the EPG based processors, the ROI will take longer and may never be realized due to obsolesce of functionality.

28. Time and Cost to Develop

29. Costs over time The “watershed” concept The average life cycle of a GPU roughly follows the introduction of versions of the Direct X API.

30. Other Concerns • As the IGP gained unit market share the investors and press extrapolated the line to predict when all PCs would be IGP based.

31. IGP and GPU Shipments

32. Beware of Soothsayers • It’s a silly model and most forecasters knew it • The “smart” ones reasoned that Moore’s law would indeed compensate for performance and that functional integration was inevitable and therefore the discrete GPU was a Dodo. • Some of them made bets on the shares of the GPU suppliers accordingly, and even used the recession to “prove” they were right.

33. Market Share Issues • If GPU shipments stay flat, and EPGs grow at the rate of the PC market, GPU unit market share will shrink. • And, depending upon GPU ASP and how the ASP for the EPG is calculated, the GPU market value may shrink. • That will make investors very nervous.

34. Offsetting factors

35. Limitations of EPG • You can’t build a blivet • There is a limit as to how many transistors that can be put into a die There are power envelope limits, package, yield, and heat dissipation limits. • You can’t take a 250 watt, 3.6 billion transistor, 1536 core GK104 and cram it in with a 77 watt 1.4 billion transistor Intel Ivy Bridge Core i7 processor A blivet is ten pounds of stuff in a five pound bag

36. Software • Software doesn’t stand still • If application development stopped Dec 2009 EPG processors would satisfy the needs of 95% of the users. • Investors and writers have long seen that as the ultimate conclusion, even before EPGs • It wrong!

37. Software Market Issues • Hardware has leapt ahead of software • Software development is just as time and money consuming as chip design. • An AAA first-person shooter (FSP) game takes 3-5 years and $5 to $30 million dollars to produce now • It’s a risky “hits-based” business • Only a few publishers and studios in the market so the output capacity of the industry is limited.

38. Software Lag • Software will continue to improve • And use the cycles available to it • And stay almost a generation behind HW • Occasionally some developers will be in, or almost in sync with the hardware developments.

39. Chicken vs. Egg • The chicken and egg dilemma • No one wants to develop for a small installed HW base • Some ISVs hold back a new release until either the installed base builds up or a competitor announces a new release. • This is extremely frustrating for the hardware suppliers.

40. Heterogeneous compute • It’s here (at last) • Support in three OS • This is a significant breakthrough in computer science • It will have far reaching, long term, and astounding influence on the world. • The economy of scale puts a super computer in the hands of everyone for $5,000 or less.

41. Could this be the Future? System DRAM CPU Larrabee Co-processor Hi speed links to PCIe Bridge South Bridge Or is the third processor like the third rail? Graphics Processor (GPU) Ray Tracing Processor (RTP) NIC Processor (FPG) Audio Processor (DSP) Graphics memory High-speed DDRAM

42. More FLOPS Less $ • Cost per FLOP, the GPU used as a vector processor most economical computing element. • The GPU can be used in three major application areas: • scientific, • professional/commercial, and • consumer. • Most applications will scale by the number of GPU cores available.

43. Destroying things – Investment Protection • A discrete-based GPU AIB, adds extraordinary impact to a game. It also offers investment protection to the buyer in that it gives added life to his or her purchase.

44. Hybrid PC Architecture System memory High-speed SDRAM Memory Bus South Bridge Processor GPU High-speed Links Discrete GPU Graphics memory High-speed DDRAM Frame buffer

45. Scalable Graphics • SLI – 2 to 3 AIBs • Crossfire – 2 to 4 AIBs • Lucid Logix – 2 to 4 AIBs - mixed • Multiple AIBs for: • More performance • Physics • Ray tracing • Investment protection

46. The more you can see …The more you can do - Peddie’s 2nd law In Computer Graphics too much is not enough - Peddie’s 1st law

47. The big future for discrete GPUs • GPUs sell 1.35 to PCs • That ratio will increase due to: • GPU compute • Hybrid • Scaling • The EPG class products will kill midrange GPUs • They can’t come close the high-end

48. The Market Shift to EPG Discrete GPUs

49. Thank you Chasing pixels – finding gems Jon@jonpeddie.com