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Graphs of “Capability Traps” for Bertelsmann Transformation Index for each country of bottom 40 plus countries. Lant Pritchett November 2010. Description of data. Each country has four indicators: KKM (World Governance Indicators) “Government Effectiveness”
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Graphs of “Capability Traps”for Bertelsmann Transformation Index for each country of bottom 40 plus countries Lant Pritchett November 2010
Description of data • Each country has four indicators: • KKM (World Governance Indicators) “Government Effectiveness” • Failed States Index component “progressive deterioration of services” • Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) indicator of “Resource Efficiency” • Indicator of “Quality of Government” based on ICRG indicators
Description of Graphs • The data are for the most recent year of the indicator from the previous sources (each green dot is a country observation, the chosen country is labeled at its observation and four countries are highlighted: Somalia, Singapore, India and Costa Rica. • There are horizontal lines at each indicator going backward for Somalia (the minimum) and forward from Singapore (the maximum) and across the graph at the overall cross-national median and a vertical line at 2033 (25 years from the data). • The “maximum historical trend” is the linear extrapolation back from the current level to Somalia’s level of the indicator (the minimum possible) at the country’s date of independence. • In addition there are various scenarios illustrated, depending on the available data.
Scenarios • For all four variables (including FSI and BTI which have no time series) there are two scenarios: • Optimistic “BAU” which is extrapolation of the “maximum historical trend” • “Fastest 20”—the average of the fastest 20 of the “maximum historical trend” for each indicator • The KKM and ICRG based indicators have some time series for each country. For those countries there are two additional scenarios: • “Actual” BAU based on available data • “Actual” Fastest 20 based on the fastest 20 observed