The Antebellum Heights Conundrum

1. The Antebellum Heights Conundrum Shawn Osell University of Wisconsin – Superior sosell1@uwsuper.edu 1

2. What is the Antebellum Puzzle? • Adult stature decreased at a time of significant economic growth (1800 – 1860). • We expect there to be a positive correlation between the average heights of a population and increased productivity & consumption. • Note: life expectancy was also decreasing during this same time period.

3. Literature Review • Margo and Steckel (1983) • Haines, Craig Weiss (2003) • Komlos (1987) • Sokoloff (1984)

4. During the Antebellum period, real GDP per capita was increasing, while average heights were decreasing. Real GDP per capita in 2000 dollars

5. Growing pains of economic development: explanations from the literature • Internal /external mobility and disease; i.e. domestic trade routes, immigration. • Urbanization, congestion, lack of sanitation • Slow growth in real wages • Environmental degradation • Political strife (Reviewed in Haines, Craig, and Weis (2003))

6. Research Question: • Was there a substitution effect between food prices and manufactured products that contributed to the decline of average heights of Americans during the Antebellum Period?

7. Testing for a substitution effect between food & manufactured goods • Stature = b0 + b1farmer +b2professional1 +b3Professional 2 + b4 artisan +b5service + b6 manual + b7unproductive +b8agricultural worker + b9 born in NY + b10born in PA +b11 Born 1826-1830 + b12Born 1831-1835 +b13Born 1836-1843 + b14RPI (Relative Price Index) + U

8. Stature = Height of the union army recruit; Professional1 = manufacturers, teachers, lawyers, and other professional workers; Professional2 = clerks, merchants and salesmen; Artisan = skilled labor including blacksmiths, carpenters, and masons; service = service workers including assistants, spinners, and policemen; Unproductive = includes those who are not involved in paid work i.e. retirees, students; agricultural worker = hired farm workers;

9. born in MW = the army recruit was born in MW; born in NY = the army recruit was born in NY; born in PA = the army recruit was born in PA; Born 1826-1830 = the army recruit was born 1826-1830; Born 1831-1835 = the army recruit was born 1831-1835; Born 1836-1843 = the army recruit was born 1836-1843; RPI = relative price index; U = disturbance term;

10. RPI (Relative Price Index) • The RPI is a price index of manufactured goods divided by a price index of agricultural goods:

11. Data Collection and sources Information about army recruits: Fogel, Robert W., and Stanley Engerman, UNION ARMY RECRUITS IN WHITE REGIMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1861-1865 Price statistics : Wholesale commodity prices in the United States, 1700-1861 (Cole, 1938). The index of this book includes monthly averages of several products for various different US cities during the antebellum period. However, only three of the cities were applicable to this research: Cincinnati, New York City, and Pittsburgh.

12. Prices of agricultural goods and prices of manufactured goods were added together in order to create a price index for both types of products. • In order to create a price index that reflected price sensitivity to stature determination, another annual index was created. • These price indexes include the prices of manufactured and agricultural goods for the time periods t = -1, 1, 6, 7, 12, and 13; where t = 0 is the army soldiers birth year. • These years represent when an individual’s stature is most sensitive to food consumption. • The variable RPI was created with the two price indexes:

13. Selected Regression Coefficients