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Some Reflexions on the typology of African countries and industrial policies

UNECA AUC UNIDO. Some Reflexions on the typology of African countries and industrial policies. Moubarack LO, Economist and Statistician Managing Director Emergence Consulting Group Email: moubaracklo@gmail.com. SUMMARY. GENERAL COMMENTS ON THE PAPER

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Some Reflexions on the typology of African countries and industrial policies

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  1. UNECA AUC UNIDO Some Reflexions on the typology of African countries and industrial policies Moubarack LO, Economist and Statistician Managing Director Emergence Consulting Group Email: moubaracklo@gmail.com

  2. SUMMARY • GENERAL COMMENTS ON THE PAPER • CRITERIA TO DESIGN THE TYPOLOGY • SAMPLING • DEVELOPING AN INDEX

  3. GENERAL COMMENTS ON THE PAPER • VERY GOOD SYNTHESIS OF INDUSTRIAL POLICIES IN AFRICA • NEED TO REVISIT THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF AFRICAN INDUSTRY • GOOD IDEA TO DEVELOP A TYPOLOGY OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND INDUSTRIAL POLICIES • NEED TO GIVE STATISTICAL ROBUSTNESS TO THE WORK ON TYPOLOGY

  4. CRITERIA TO DESIGN THE TYPOLOGY • Consider only three discriminating Criteria for the Countries: • Resources (Rich (RR)/Poor (RP)), • Population (Large (LP), Small (SP)), • Geography ( Coastal (C), Landlocked (L) ) • N.B.: A Country’s education level can change relatively fast (in 10 to 20 years), whereas the three above criteria move slowly (population size) or cannot vary at all (natural resources). • Make sure to well define what are resources rich and poor, or large and small countries.

  5. CRITERIA TO DESIGN THE TYPOLOGY • Then eight possibilities (eight groups) exist: • Group A: RR/LP/C; • Group B: RR/LP/L; • Group C: RR/SP/C; • Group D: RR/SP/L; • Group E: RP/LP/C; • Group F: RP/LP/L; • Group G: RP/SP/C; • Group H: RP/SP/L

  6. SAMPLING • Take a broad sample of African, American, Asian and European Countries that were industrially under-developed in 1960 and put each of them in the relevant group (among the 8 identified above) depending to its situation.

  7. SAMPLING (foll.) • Compare the industrial performances of the countries in the sample in 1960, in 1980, in 1995, and in 2005. Show the wide and progressive variability of results in each group and for the whole sample. Identify the top and the low performers globally and in each group.

  8. DEVELOPING AN INDEX • Design a Synthetic Quality of Industrial Policy Index (QIPI) aggregating Three Sub-indexes: • Sub-Index 1: Quality of Sectoral and Competition Policies • Sub-Index 2: Quality of Education and Innovation Policies • Sub-Index 3: Quality of Trade Policies

  9. DEVELOPING AN INDEX (foll.) • For each Sub-Index, appropriate variables will be identified. The weight of the variables will vary among the groups, some of them being critical or very important for the Group due to the conditions it faces (ex.: Trans-borders roads or rail facilities for landlocked countries).

  10. DEVELOPING AN INDEX (foll.) • Give a Score to each country for the variables, sub-indexes and for the QIPI, using Data Analysis techniques (Multiple Factor Analysis): in 1980; 1995 and 2005. Very that there is continuous correlation between scores for QIPI and industrial performances of the countries.

  11. DEVELOPING AN INDEX (foll.) • Have a ranking of the countries in the sample and identify which variables are the most important in each group to increase its QIPI. • Draw conclusions and lessons for African Countries, depending on the Group where they are.

  12. MERCI

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