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Latest trends in wireless technology

This is my first talk to the staffs and postgraduate students of FKEE, UTHM during my Adjunct Prof visit. @Aug. 28, 2013

mazlanabbas
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Latest trends in wireless technology

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  1. + Latest Trends in Wireless Technology Dr. Mazlan Abbas [Seminar, UTHM, 28 August, 2013]

  2. +Summary !  Introduction to the Digital Natives !  DNA - The Key Drivers !  The Key Challenges !  The Traffic Demand !  The Network Requirements !  The Technology Trends !  Summary

  3. +Digital Natives - Webciety “We create the Internet” “We use the Internet” “We live and breathe in the Internet” Create Use Live

  4. + Screen Evolution 5th 1st Screen Digital Native Screen Cinema Tablet 4th 2nd Screen Screen 3rd Television Screen Smartphone Computer

  5. +Overview !  Mobile broadband subscriptions !  3.3 M [Jan. 2013] !  3G Service !  14.6 M subscriptions [Dec. 2012] !  82% pop coverage [June 2012] !  Broadband subscriptions !  6.2 M [Jan. 2013] !  Cellular phone subscriptions !  In 2013, our digital eco-system will welcome two new service, Hybrid TV – Digital Terrestrial TV with Internet and Mobile 4G-LTE !  41.1 M !  141.6% per pop [Dec. 2012] !  Cellular coverage at populated areas !  96.8% [Dec. 2012] !  Internet users !  17.7 M [June 2012]

  6. 4G (LTE) +

  7. + Key Drivers

  8. + Driver #1 MOBILE

  9. +Future Wireless Access – Key Challenges

  10. Data Tsunami is coming •  Currently an exponential growth of mobile data is observed* •  More advanced devices with more capabilities (smartphones, tablets, etc), as well as increased importance of machine generated data result in increased traffic generation •  Multi-device ownership, resulting in synchronization of data between devices •  Mobile Social Networking and User Generated Contents * The data amount is doubling annually resulting in 1000× increase in the current decade, for the individual devices this means performance will increase 100×

  11. + It’s Happening Fast ! First 20 Quarters Since Launch Subscribers (MM) 100 80 Mobile Internet 60 40 Desktop Internet 20 0 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Quarters Since Launch Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Note AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010

  12. + The Trend is Irreversible Global Mobile vs. Desktop Internet User Projection, 2007 – 2015E Internet Users(MM) 2,000 1,600 Desktop Internet Users 1,200 Mobile Internet Users 800 400 0 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010

  13. + Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold (1.4 zettabytes) by the End of 2017

  14. + Global IP traffic has increased more than fourfold in the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over the next 5 years.

  15. + Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will carry over half of Internet traffic in 2017.

  16. + Mobile Phones PC TV M2M Tablets 16% 24% 79% 82% 104% Nearly half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2017

  17. + Beyond Email. Beyond Voice 10GB Average'data'usage'per'month' 600 Concurrent'users'per'site'' 548GB Highest'user'consump4on'record''in'1'month' Over 57% Rich'Media'ac4vi4es'on'P1’s'network' 1,700TB Average'monthly'network'traffic' [SOURCE: Michael Lai Keynote Speech, WiMAX Forum SEA Regional Focus Conference 2010]

  18. + Mobile Data Crunch KDDI Confirms LTE Migration Plan But Will Use WiMAX and WIFI too KDDI’s&President&and&Chairman,&Tadashi& Onodera&stated&at&GSMA&Mobile&Asia&Congress& 2010?&& TeleGeography,Comms, Update, Wed,,17,Nov,2010, ??????????????????? ?????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????? ???????????? ???????????????? LTE will not be sufficient to cope with such huge data demands so we also need to use other technologies such as WiMAX and WiFi A Network Optimized for Mobile Voice Cannot Handle High Numbers of Mobile Internet Users Traffic Equivalents* 1 Laptop= 15 Smartphones = 450 Voice Handsets [ Source: Cisco, 2009]

  19. +Smartphones Unleashed

  20. + Device Ecosystem Create Creator High-Performance Laptop UMPC Information Carry & Edit Laptop DIGI-Cam TV UMPC UMD eBook Consumer Navigation Dual Mode Handset PMP UMPC View Navigation Modem In-Car Entertainment Gateway Game PMP MP3 Player Fixed & In Vehicle Briefcase Handbag Backpack Palm Pocket ???????????????????????? 20!

  21. +The Habits of Online Newspaper Readers [http://online.wsj.com]

  22. +User Interface Transformation

  23. +What’s the Next UI? Leap Motion Air Gesture Moto-X Touchless Control

  24. + Driver #2 APPLICATIONS

  25. Android Market Windows Marketplace App Store Verizon Media Store Blackberry App World Mobile App Stores Telus Mobility App Store Ovi Store - Nokia PlayNow Arena – Sony Ericsson Symbian Apps Samsung App Store PocketGear App Store

  26. +Data ARPU increase Consumers increasingly want to access the same Internet content and services on their mobile phones that they can from fixed access/PCs

  27. + Social Media May 2011

  28. +Impact of Facebook

  29. +Impact of Twitter

  30. +Impact of YouTube 800 Million+ Monthly Unique Visitors •  That’s more than the entire population of Europe! 72 Hours+ Video Uploaded Per Minute •  That’s over a decade of content every day! 4 Billion Hours of Video Viewed Each Month •  That’s over 450,000 years of video viewed each month!

  31. +The Social Media Effect User Generated Contents

  32. +The Social Currency

  33. +YouTube Phenomenon Net Traffic Exponential Growth! 1% Rule (Internet Culture) One will create content, 10 will "interact" with it (commenting or offering improvements) and the other 89 will just view it. 90-9-1 Principle 1% of people create content, 9% edit or modify that content, and 90% view the content without contributing. [Sysomos analyzed over 2.5 million YouTube videos that were embedded in blog posts between July and December 2009.]

  34. + Driver #3 NETWORKS

  35. + Which is More Superior? Never Ending Battle for “Networks Superiority”

  36. +The Future is Heterogeneous Technology GSM, HSPA, LTE, WiFi Spectrum Deployment 3G WiFi LTE Macro – Outdoor Micro / Pico - Indoor

  37. + Key Challenges

  38. + The Mobile Internet Creating New Challenges For Carriers Devices/Users Mobile Internet Capacity Gbytes 14 1,000,000 Mobile Internet Capacity, Demand, 12 100,000 Desktop Internet 10 10,000 8 1000 10B+ PC Connected Devices +1B 6 100 Minicomputer Capacity,, Supply, +100M 4 10 Mainframe +10M 1 2 +1M 0 2010 2000 1990 1980 2010 1960 2020 2013 2015 2016 2011 2012 2014 1970 Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report Dec ‘09 Source: Rysavy Research Feb;10

  39. +Traffic Grows Explosively But Not the Revenue Mobile data traffic will increase 1000 times in 10 years Profit per bit will continuously decrease in the future years

  40. + The Changing World of Mobile Internet Disruptive Transformation Bandwidth “Pipe Provider” Applications “Value-Added Provider” •  Higher quality-of-experience •  Higher sessions and session rates •  New monetization models

  41. + To Design Wireless Network of The Future We Need to Understand the Traffic Requirements

  42. +Unbalanced Traffic Distribution !  Imbalance between the terminal type: in 2010, smart phone’s global penetration rate is 13%, while it contribute 78% traffic load from the mobile device !  Geographic imbalance: in 2009, more than 50% mobile service happened at home/office; while this percentage is 63% in China. Most of the data service happens in low mobility indoor and dense urban !  Monthly basic mobile phone data traffic !  Smartphone = 24 x phone !  Handheld Gaming Console = 60 x phone !  Tablet = 122 x phone !  Laptop = 515 x phone

  43. +Information Access !  The “paperless society” will have a huge impact on networks: media will be consumed in portable devices; •  daily commuters will need a lot of information on an instantaneous basis. • 

  44. + Devices of Tomorrow are Wearable

  45. Location Awareness •  Location based services are being introduced these days, upon user demand. •  The opposite way may be introduced, i.e., the environment being aware that the user is present.

  46. +Internet of Things !  Today’s systems are based on a person being the end user !  Future systems must consider machine-to-machine (M2M) communications as being potentially more important !  Sensor networks are emerging as one of the “killer” network structures of the future. “By 2020, You'll Own 50 Internet- Connected Devices”

  47. +Power Consumption Plays an Important Role in OPEX High CAPEX/OPEX of RAN result from BS equipment room

  48. +Challenges and Requirements for Future Challenges Requirements !  Explosive growth of mobile data traffic !  Higher data rate / Higher spectrum Efficiency !  Unbalanced DL and UL traffic !  Flexible adaptation of DL/UL traffic !  Huge power consumption !  Better energy savings !  Spectrum Fragmentation !  Efficient utilization of un- paired spectrum !  Low-band spectrum used !  More usable spectrum

  49. +Key Requirements and Technology Directions to be Considered !  Significant gain in spectrum efficiency per area (bps/Hz/m2) with significant reduction in cost per bit (500 – 1000x traffic by 2020’s) !  Emerging solutions to deal with traffic explosion !  Traffic offloading !  Offloading strategies tuned to applications and scenarios !  Network density !  Technical trends such as multi-layer cell deployment !  Network architecture to reduce cost per bit

  50. +Requirements from User Perspective !  Higher data rate and user-experienced throughput !  Data rate competitive to that of future wired networks !  Gbps-order everywhere !  Low latency for improving user experience !  Fairness of user throughput !  In a cell !  Improve cell-edge throughput !  Among cells !  Urban to rural !  Digital divide !  Among users !  Light-weight users impact from few heavy users

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