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Clare Goodess* & the STARDEX team *Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK

Evaluate statistical downscaling for extreme temperature & rainfall, providing high-resolution data for Europe. Compare with dynamical downscaling for end-of-century climate scenarios.

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Clare Goodess* & the STARDEX team *Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK

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  1. COP10, 13 December 2004 Introducing STARDEX:STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions Clare Goodess* & the STARDEX team*Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK February 2002 to July 2005 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex

  2. The STARDEX team • University of East Anglia, UK • King's College London, UK • Fundación para la Investigación del Clima, Spain • University of Bern, Switzerland • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France • Servizio Meteorologico Regional, ARPA-Emilia Romagna, Italy • Atmospheric dynamics group, University of Bologna, Italy • Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark • Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Switzerland • Fachhochschule Stuttgart - Hochschule für Technik, Germany • Institut für Wasserbau, Germany • University of Thessaloniki, Greece

  3. PRUDENCE focuses on dynamical downscaling • STARDEX is evaluating an alternative, complementary approach to providing high-resolution information: statistical downscaling (SDS) • This approach has some advantages: • Provides station/point values • Less computer intensive than dynamical downscaling • STARDEX is performing a rigorous and systematic inter-comparison and evaluation of SDS methods and comparison with dynamical downscaling

  4. STARDEX is focusing on temperature & rainfall extremes: • 10 core indices covering frequency, magnitude and persistence (the STARDEX software package calculates 57 indices in total) • The more robust SDS methods will be used to construct scenarios of extremes for end of 21st century for 6 regions & Europe as a whole

  5. The underlying principles of SDS: • Observed relationships between the local surface climate and larger-scale climate (e.g., circulation patterns, atmospheric humidity) are established… • And applied to GCM output for the future… • On the assumption that these relationships will be unchanged in the future…. • And that the larger-scale climate is better simulated by GCMs than local climate

  6. Examples of strong relationships between intense rainfall and circulation established by STARDEX: French Alpes Maritime German Rhine (winter) Greenland Anticyclone Sole Cyclone 1971-1983 (left) & 1983-1995 (right) Circulation pattern optimisation technique - CP02 Guy Plaut, CNRS-INLN András Bárdossy, USTUTT-IWS

  7. So STARDEX has done a lot of work analysing observed data: • Including a unique data set of daily station records for ~500 European stations - indices available from http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex • And denser station networks for 6 regions: Iberia, Greece, UK, German Rhine, Alps, northern Italy

  8. 1958-2000 trend in DJF frost days Athens February 2004 Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA

  9. Western Europe August 2003 1958-2000 trend in JJA heat wave duration Property damage: US$ 13 bn Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France) Scale is days per year. Red is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA

  10. 1958-2000 trend in JJA heavy rain events Fatalities: > 100 Economic losses: > US$18 bn Insured losses: > US$3 bn Central and Eastern Europe August 2002 Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA

  11. In part, these changes can be explained by changes in circulation & other predictors used in SDS E.g., Heavy winter rainfall and links with North Atlantic Oscillation/SLP Haylock & Goodess, IJC, 2004

  12. A major, systematic inter-comparison of SDS methods is underway in STARDEX:20+ methods, 7 regions, 13 indices and 4 seasons Iberian Peninsula – Spearman correlations for 6 SDS models and 4 seasons averaged across 7 extreme rainfall indices and 16 stations Neural network methods perform best in this example – but skill always varies between season & index Malcolm Haylock, UEA

  13. STARDEX has 7 months to go: • Currently drawing up recommendations on the most appropriate downscaling methods and guidance for users (building on IPCC guidelines) • And constructing future scenarios…. • Will summarise changes and their reliability for a broader audience

  14. STARDEX outputs, in a variety of formats for different audiences, are available from the web site: e.g., information sheets (2-sides A4) http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex

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