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North American Carbon Program Site-level Interim Synthesis Model Data Comparison (Site MDC). Kevin Schaefer, Peter Thornton, Ken Davis, Dan Ricciuto, Bob Cook, and the NACP Site-Level Interim Synthesis Team. Site MDC Objectives.
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North American Carbon Program Site-level Interim Synthesis Model Data Comparison (Site MDC) Kevin Schaefer, Peter Thornton, Ken Davis, Dan Ricciuto, Bob Cook, and the NACP Site-Level Interim Synthesis Team
Site MDC Objectives “Are the modeled and observed carbon fluxes consistent with each other - and if not, why?” • Multiple models at multiple towers • 25 priority 1 sites • 34 priority 2 sites • 22 models • Quantify uncertainty • Identify strengths and weaknesses • http://isynth-site.pbwiki.com/
NACP Interim Synthesis Activities • Site MDC • Regional and continental • Mid-Continent Intensive • Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases • http://nacp.ornl.gov/mast-dc/
Schedule • December, 2007: start planning • October 20, 2008: start model simulations • November 3, 2008: final deadline tower inputs • December AGU: mini-workshop • January 7-9: Full workshop at ORNL • February 17-20: NACP All-Investigators Mtg
Quantifying bias & uncertainty • Multiple analysis teams • Multiple foci: • Fluxes: Carbon, latent heat, sensible heat • Environment: soil temperature & moisture • Isotopes: 13C, 18O, and 15N • Diurnal to inter-annual time scales
Priority 1 Tower Sites Priority 2 Tower Sites
Inputs to Models • Gap-filled observed weather • Filled using nearby towers, NCDC/ASOS sites, and DAYMET data • See Dan Ricciuto poster • MODIS and AVHRR NDVI LAI & fPAR • Standardized fluxes and uncertainty • Filtering and gap-filling • Random error • Systematic error
Inputs to Models • AmeriFlux Biological Data Template • Models physical constants and initial conditions • Full template desirable, high priority list a must • Soil texture, vegetation type • Stand age, species dist., biomass, phenology • Land Use and Disturbance history • Disturbance date and type • Harvest, downfall, crop rotation, irrigation
Output from Models • Standard netcdf output files • Model Survey • Model uncertainty • Parameter estimation • Model structure • Initial conditions
Preliminary Results: Howland NEE Point Simulations with gap-filled weather Date (year) Extracted from regional model results Date (year)
Preliminary Results: Howland GPP Howland: GPP comparison
Conclusions • Thank you! • AmeriFlux, Fluxnet Canada, Fluxnet Synthesis • DOE, CarboEurope, Canadian Carbon program • We anticipate some very cool results