1 / 28

Decisions for the Decade: Making Smart Long-Term Choices

Participate in a game designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez from the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre for the World Bank. This interactive decision-making game involves making investment decisions for four decades, focusing on flood protection, development, and drought protection. Players aim to create resilience to climate change while avoiding humanitarian crises. Learn through gameplay about the impact of disasters and extreme events, and reflect on long-term implications. Understand the importance of strategic choices amidst deep uncertainty. Get ready to strategize, protect against disasters, and aim for sustainable prosperity!

mbushman
Download Presentation

Decisions for the Decade: Making Smart Long-Term Choices

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Decisions for the Decade How to make smart long-term decisions? ? All Participate! (...expect confusion...) • designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre) • for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development)

  2. IPCC Latest Report A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info Audience: Passive Role ?

  3. LET’S PLAY!

  4. BASIC GAME RULES • 1. Simplification of reality No challenging the rules! • Decisions are individual • But team consultations welcome • We will make 4 decades of investment decisions Each round is 10 years

  5. WINNERS &LOSERS Losers:Most red stones (humanitarian crises) Winning Player: No crisis, andMost beans for prosperity Winning Team: Fewest crises (if tied: Most beans for prosperity)

  6. Your goal: create a region ~ and a country resilient to climate change…

  7. But your vision is challenged by disasters : Devastating droughts … Effect of drought used for program Rwanda / Kenya. Photo/FILE  (Bob Koigi)

  8. Extreme floods… Flooding occasioned by heavy rains in East Africa (Kenya Red Cross)

  9. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

  10. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought…

  11. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…

  12. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean… If just 1 drought occurs in the decade… …you gain 9 Prosperity Points!

  13. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean But, what if we had a second drought? Not enough protection! …triggers humanitarian crisis …NO prosperity points!

  14. 2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS FOR THE DECADE Village A Village B

  15. 3. OBSERVATIONS Roll 10 Years of rainfall:

  16. 4. CONSEQUENCES Village B Village A 6 Prosperity Points 0 Prosperity Points! CRISIS! Beans Used Beans Used

  17. Let’s Play!

  18. Have you heard? Extreme Events are increasing! = Drought 7 8 2 1 = Extreme Flood

  19. The Climate is Changing…

  20. NEW MODEL for climate change... The cone can land 3 ways: Normal

  21. IPCC Latest Report

  22. A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info Audience: Passive Role ?

  23. A Model of the Gameplay Experience Decisions Info Consequences

  24. WHY GAMES for Deep Uncertainty: HUH? AHA!

  25. Making ‘The Cone of Uncertainty’

  26. with IPCC Lead Authors

  27. T H A N K Y O U ! ! !

More Related