Topic 3 – Agriculture and Food

1. Topic 3 – Agriculture and Food A – Food Models B – Food Production and Trade C – The Green Revolution and Food Security

2. A. Food Models The Human Diet Nutrition Transitions Malnutrition

3. 1. The Human Diet • The human diet • Minimum caloric requirement: • 2,700 calories for men and 2,000 calories for women. • Diet is organized along models: • No single food can supply human needs in protein, vitamins and amino acids. • Result of the socio-economic environment of the population: • About 15 plants and 8 animal species supply 90% of food. • Commonality of some food components in different parts of the world. • Related to an average daily calorie intake. • Linked to agricultural practices, but also to agribusiness and food processing industries. • Factors: • Income (quantity, quality, meat consumption). • Culture (preferences and preparation). • Availability (quantity, quality, price, reliability).

4. Annual Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products in Selected Countries, 1998 (in kilograms)

5. 1. The Human Diet • The “Fast Food” diet • Growing involvement of corporate interests. • Higher sugar and fat content: • Value added and high profits food products. • Low satiation level. • Fast food industry: • Largest group of minimum wage workers in the US (3.5 million). • 25% of the adult population visit a fast food restaurant every single day. • Most fast food is delivered to the restaurant already frozen, canned, dehydrated, or freeze-dried. • A fast food kitchen is merely the final stage in a vast and highly complex system of mass production.

6. Number of McDonald’s per Country, 2004 1,154 12,804 3,598 31,000 McDonalds restaurants worldwide (2009), employing 1.5 million people.

7. Main Elements of Kraft’s Portfolio

8. 1. The Human Diet • “Supersizing” • Larger containers and quantities: • Larger package size can increase consumption up to 55%. • 1950s: The standard Coca-Cola container was 6.5 ounces. • 1990s: The standard Coca-Cola container was 20 ounces. • Little cost for the supplier: • Brand name, packaging and marketing are dominant in pricing. • Larger quantities directly means higher profits. • Skew the perception of normal nutritional intake.

9. 1. The Illusion of Diversity, Ownership of the Soft Drink Industry, United States

10. 1. Consumption of Coca-Cola Beverages per Capita (Liters)

11. 2. Nutrition Transitions • Nutrition Transition • Urban and sedentary: • People are more often away from home. • 1970: 75% of all food expenses spent to prepare meals at home. • 2000: 50% of all food expenses for restaurants. • Element of time. • More woman in the labor force: • Away from the traditional role of food preparation. • Both members of a couple are often working. • Less preparation time available: • 90% of the money spent on food is spent on processed foods.

12. 2. Evolution of the Japanese Diet (kg / capita / year)

13. 2. Nutrition Transitions • Changes in the diet • Nutritional shift: • From a diet dominated by grains and vegetables to a diet dominated by fats and sugars. • Natural human desire for fat and sugar (energy dense foods; low satiation). • Between 1980 and 2000 calorie intake in the US has risen nearly 10% for men and 7% for women. • Increased corporate involvement in food supply: • Caffeine is added (75% of sodas) to provide addiction. • Massive usage of flavoring. • Homogenization of global diets: • Global cultural diffusion. • Outcome of trade. • Fast food industry.

14. 2. Food expenditures by families and individuals as a share of disposable personal income, 1929-2009

15. 3. Malnutrition • Malnutrition • Imbalance (deficit or excess) in intake of nutrients. • Hunger: • Deficiency of calorie and protein. • At least 1.2 billion people affected. • Micronutrient deficiency: • Deficiency of vitamins and minerals. • People in developing countries eat primarily staple grain crops and do not get enough protein. • 2.0 billion affected. • Overconsumption: • Excess of calories. • Often accompanied by vitamins and minerals deficiencies. • At least 1.2 billion people affected. • 300 million people are obese.

16. Share of Underweight Children and Overweight Adults, Selected Countries, Mid 1990s

17. 3. Malnutrition • Obesity • Significant growth of the share of adults that are overweight. • BMI (Body Mass Index): • Weight in kilograms, divided by the square of height in meters. • 18-25: Normal. • 25-30: Overweight. • 30-40: Obese • Above 40: Morbidly obese. • More prevalent among the poor (fat and sugar). • “Generation XXL” • Supersizing. • Lack of physical activities. • High fat and sugar diet.

18. 3. Past and Projected Overweight Rates in Selected OECD Countries

19. 3. Body Mass Index of Selected Countries – “Globesity”

20. 3. Share of Overweight Children, Selected Countries

21. 3. Malnutrition • Diet-related diseases • Cardiology, endocrinology (diabetes), neurology, psychiatry, dermatology, gastrointestinal, oncology, respirology. • 300,000 Americans die prematurely each year as a result of being overweight. • Americans spend 40 billion per year on weight-loss products and services. • Weight-loss products have been linked with growing obesity. • People simply eat more “fat-free” products.

22. B. Food Production and Trade Agriculture Food Production International Food Trade Global Challenges

23. 1. Agriculture Geological Biocapacity Weeds Pests Pathogens Soil conditions. pH range. Climatic Temperature and precipitation. Floods, storms Droughts Food yield Seeds, fertilizers, equipment. Conflict Poverty Economic Labor, capital, demand. Transport Processing Distribution Storage Preparation Access Political and infrastructure impediments. End-use Making food available to consumers.

24. 1. Length of Growing Period (LGP) Combines temperature and moisture considerations to determine the length of time crops are able to grow. Number of days with temperatures above 5°C. Excluding periods which are too cold or too dry or both. Under rain-fed conditions.

25. 1. Most Suitable Cereal

26. 1. Main Agriculture Models

27. 2. Patterns of Global Food Production

28. 2. World Protein Production by Source, 1950-2005

29. 2. Energy Content and Food Production

30. 2. Grain Equivalent to Produce Meat (in kg)

31. 2. Food Production • Shrimp farming • Thailand is the world’s largest exporter and second largest producer. • Shrimp is one of the most consumed seafood: • Cheap; fast growth cycle. • Can be grown using aquaculture. • Marine shrimp: • Southeast Asia very suitable; substantial tropical coastline. • Grown in ponds along coastal areas. • Filled with saltwater pumped from the ocean. • Shrimp ready for harvest in 90 to 120 days. • Ecological issues: • Some mangrove forests cleared. • Replace a diverse ecosystem with monoculture. • Waste water can be a source of pollution.

32. Tilapia farming

33. 3. International Food Trade • International trade of agricultural goods • About 9% of global exchanges in commodities. • Nature, origin and destination of food trade: • If the good is perishable. • Consumption habits. • The profit that can be derived from trading food products. • Highly linked to export cultures that are produced strictly to generate income. • Third World countries are massively involved in these types of cultures. • Overcome shortages: • Import what is lacking in the national production. • An economy needs to generate sufficient surpluses from other sectors. • Purchase enough food to overcome the national deficit. • Very few Third World countries can afford to do so.

34. 3. Global Exports of Merchandises, 1963-2008

35. 3. Exports of Cereals, 1960-2007 (in 1000s of tons)

36. 3. Grain Imports for Selected Countries, 1990, With Projected Need for Imported Grain in 2030

37. 3. World Coffee Production and Trade, 2003 65% of supply from three countries (Brazil, Columbia and Vietnam) Share of Developing countries in global exports of agricultural goods, 2000

38. 3. Price of Coffee, 1980-2010 1) Demand constant and steadily increasing (2.5% PY). 2) Supply concentration (weather risk). 3) Hoarding when prices start to increase.

39. Coffee and Cocoa Production by Developing Countries and Imports by Developed Countries, 1961-2001 (in tons)

40. 4. Some Challenges Facing Agriculture

41. 4. Global Challenges • Maintaining agricultural output • Context of increased food demand. • Provide food for the expected population surge of 1.5 billion people between 2000 and 2020. • Expansion of land under cultivation. • Intensified cultivation; • Higher productivity per unit of surface. • Efforts aimed at intensified cultivation are now much more critical than only 20 years ago. • Coping with changes in diet patterns (more meat): • One pound of feedlot beef: 2,500 gallons of water, 12 pounds of grain, energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline.

42. 4. Meat Production, United States and China 1961-2009 (in tons)

43. 4. Global Challenges • Expansion potential • Reserves still exist in the developing countries for expanding agricultural land. • Very unevenly distributed: • Found mainly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. • Asian countries, especially the most densely populated, have only slight expansion possibilities. • Demographic pressure pushes towards that strategy. • Fishing: • Was believed that the oceans provided an unlimited supply. • “Peak fish” was reached around 1980. • The potential of aquaculture remains uncertain: • Conversion of grain. • Waste generation.

44. 4. Global Challenges • Consequences • Rapidly deterioration of environmental quality. • Extended soil degradation: • Nutrient depletion. • Erosion. • Salination. • Dwindling availability of water resources: • Agriculture accounts for 70% of all fresh water withdrawals. • Exhaustion of aquifers. • Water pollution by fertilizers and pesticides. • Loss of animal and plant species (biodiversity): • 20 to 30% of the world’s forest converted to agriculture. • 50% of all species are in danger of extinction. • Threatening national parks and protected areas.

45. C. The Green Revolution and Food Security The Green Revolution Food Security and Food Aid

46. 1. The Green Revolution • Context • Strong population growth in the second half of the 20th century. • New techniques were required to increase production. • New land was becoming scarce. • Labor was difficult to add to existing agricultural systems. • Increasing the agricultural output • Green Revolution in the 1960s. • New varieties of wheat, corn and rice: • 1920: 20 bushels per acre (wheat). • 1997: 120 bushels per acre (wheat). • Enabling up to three harvests per year and increased outputs.

47. 1. The Green Revolution • Strategy • Focused more on scientific achievements rather than on mechanization of agriculture. • Focused on genetics and pedology (soil science). • The development of new seed strains: • Increase agricultural production. • Make crops more resistant to diseases. • Development of hybrids. • New strains do not occur naturally. • The improvement of inputs into soils: • Fertilizers of various types. • Enhance the productivity of previously marginal soils. • Irrigation in dry areas (40% of our food comes from irrigation). • Boost productivity in many world regions but not without costs.

48. 1. Fertilizer Response Curve for Corn

49. 1. The Green Revolution • Net impact • Increased agricultural output in many areas: • Yields were more than doubled for many cereals (wheat, maize and rice). • Increased the cost of agriculture: • Bioengineered seeds. • Fertilizers and pesticides. • Equipment. • Decreased agricultural employment: • Benefits accrued to the wealthier and middle class farmers who could afford its more costly inputs. • Increased landlessness among the peasantry. • Increased surplus population in rural areas: • Increased rural to urban migration in many developing countries.

50. 1. Global Production of Major Grains, 1961-2009 (in M tons)