The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks

1. The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current StatusInclude Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 02 February 2015 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml

2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP GEFS Forecasts • Summary

3. Highlights:Last 7 Days • Moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over eastern Zambia, Malawi and northern Mozambique, whereas suppressed rainfall prevailed over many places of East Africa. • Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall over southern Angola, northern Namibia, parts of western Zambia, parts of southern Botswana, South Africa and Lesotho. In contrast, there an increased chance for above-average rainfall over southern Tanzania, Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar.

4. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past seven days, above-average rainfall was observed over portions of Gabon and northern DRC, southern Angola, eastern Zambia, Malawi, central and northern Mozambique, portions of Namibia and Botswana, and eastern South Africa. In contrast, central and southern DRC, Uganda, Tanzania, portions of Angola, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and local area sin in Namibia and South Africa had below-average rainfall.

5. Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, rainfall was below-average over southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, DRC, many parts of Angola, Namibia, Botswana, southwestern Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, much of Tanzania, local areas in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, and South Africa. In contrast, local areas in DRC and Angola, portions of southern Tanzania, Zambia, local areas in northern Zimbabwe, Malawi, northern Mozambique, and Madagascar had above-average rainfall.

6. Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, Liberia, coastal Cote d’Ivoire, western Gabon, local areas in southern Tanzania, eastern Zimbabwe, portions of Mozambique, southern Malawi, and portions of Madagascar had above-average rainfall. Below-average rainfall was observed over eastern Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, much of DRC, Angola, portions of Namibia and South Africa, Zambia, Uganda, Kenya and western Tanzania.

7. Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days During the past 180 days, rainfall was above-average over eastern Guinea-Conakry, Liberia, western Cote d’Ivoire, local areas in Mali, western Burkina Faso, western Gabon, portions of South Sudan Republic, Ethiopia, southern and eastern Sudan, local areas in the Lake Victoria region, southern Tanzania, southern Malawi, central Mozambique and local areas in Madagascar. In contrast, much of Nigeria, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, eastern Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, Angola, portions of DRC, northern Zambia, and local areas in South Africa had below-average rainfall.

8. Recent Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected places reflects that seasonal total rainfall remained below-average over parts of Angola (bottom left). Moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over portions of Malawi and (top-right) and Mozambique (bottom-right).

9. Atmospheric Circulation:Last 7 Days The 850hpa wind anomalies (left panel) featured lower-level in the Mozambique Channel and the neighboring places of Madagascar.

10. NCEP GEFS Model ForecastsNon-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 03 February – 09 February 2015Week-2: Valid 10 February – 16 February 2015 For week-1 (left panel) there is an increased chance for rainfall to exceed 50 mm over portions of DRC, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Madagascar. Probabilities of heavy rainfall tend to decrease over much of these areas during week-2 (right panel).

11. Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks 03 Feb – 09 Feb 2015 • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over southern Angola, northern Namibia, and parts of western Zambia: Anomalous lower-level divergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall in parts of southern Botswana, South Africa, and Lesotho: Anomalous lower-level divergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall across southern Tanzania, Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe,, and Madagascar: An anomalous cyclonic circulation, combined with a broad area of lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

12. Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks 10 Feb – 16 Feb 2015 • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over much of Tanzania: Anomalous lower-level divergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

13. Summary During the past seven days, above-average rainfall was observed over portions of Gabon and northern DRC, southern Angola, eastern Zambia, Malawi, central and northern Mozambique, portions of Namibia and Botswana, and eastern South Africa. In contrast, central and southern DRC, Uganda, Tanzania, portions of Angola, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and local area sin in Namibia and South Africa had below-average rainfall. During the past 30 days, rainfall was below-average over southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, DRC, many parts of Angola, Namibia, Botswana, southwestern Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, much of Tanzania, local areas in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, and South Africa. In contrast, local areas in DRC and Angola, portions of southern Tanzania, Zambia, local areas in northern Zimbabwe, Malawi, northern Mozambique, and Madagascar had above-average rainfall. During the past 90 days, Liberia, coastal Cote d’Ivoire, western Gabon, local areas in southern Tanzania, eastern Zimbabwe, portions of Mozambique, southern Malawi, and portions of Madagascar had above-average rainfall. Below-average rainfall was observed over eastern Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, much of DRC, Angola, portions of Namibia and South Africa, Zambia, Uganda, Kenya and western Tanzania. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall over southern Angola, northern Namibia, parts of western Zambia, parts of southern Botswana, South Africa and Lesotho. In contrast, there an increased chance for above-average rainfall over southern Tanzania, Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar.