1 / 20

Bridging Weather Forecasting Advances: A Journey with WG4

This success story of WG4 showcases key milestones from postprocessing methods to scale-dependent verifications, culminating in impactful applications like CORSO for the Winter Olympics. With a focus on precipitation patterns, the evolution of COSMO LEPS to benefit forecasters is highlighted. Emphasizing the importance of local and stratified verification, the text also delves into the challenges faced and future perspectives. Through country focal points and new orientations, WG4 aims to develop generic weather products for enhanced forecasting accuracy and user engagement.

mckeer
Download Presentation

Bridging Weather Forecasting Advances: A Journey with WG4

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. WG4: interpretation and applicationsA success story… to be continued…Pierre EckertMeteoSwiss, Geneva

  2. Topics • FIELDEXTRA  presentation by JM Bettems • Retrospective (short) • Perspectives

  3. WG4 retrospective • 2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS • ~2008: separation of ensemble part to WG7 • 2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification), inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessing method • 2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI) Participation into various activities: • Verification and guidelines for forecasters • NWP Test suite • Feed back from forecasters • Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…)

  4. COSMO LEPS • Became operational on ECMWF units • Available to all COSMO states • 10 km  7 km • 16  20 members • Extension of the domain • Still used, also as a testbed / benchmark

  5. WG4 retrospective • 2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS • ~2008: separation of the ensemble part to WG7 • 2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification) • Inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessing method • 2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI) Participation into various activities: • Verification and guidelines for forecasters • NWP Test suite • Feed back from forecasters • Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…)

  6. 7km 2km Motivation: precipitation pattern

  7. Expected behaviour of scores From Nigel Roberts (2005)

  8. What verification is useful to forecasters? • Verification has to be local (not too much)… • …and stratified • It can be stratified by type of phenomena (thunderstorms, drizzle,…) either observed or forecasted • Or by type of synoptic situation • The verification results can be used in order to implement targeted postprocessing (decision trees)… • …or be used by the forecasters in order • to correct the models • not to use them in certain situations • use different indicators from models (instability,…) • The verification should be relevant to the present version of the model

  9. Work already done Precipitation bias by weather class (Zala) 2008, flat 2008, SW

  10. Work already done Fuzzy verification by weather class (Weusthoff) We think about how to communicate the results

  11. differences in Fractions Skill Score for weather-type dependant verif COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7 COSMO-7 better COSMO-2 better YEAR 2010 NE (11x) S (10x) F (78x) SW (49x) N (18x) H (73x) E (4x) NW (38x) W (56x) SE (4x) L (25x)

  12. Summary neighbourhood verification precipitation in 2010 • The skill of the models varies for different weather types and the differences between COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 varies also:- best skill: Autumn and Spring, south to northwest weather types- greatest difference COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7: Summer and Winter, north- and east types, convective cases Tanja Weusthoff

  13. WG4 retrospective • 2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS • ~2008: separation of the ensemble part to WG7 • 2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification) • Inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessing method • 2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI) Participation into various activities: • Verification and guidelines for forecasters • NWP Test suite • Feed back from forecasters • Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…)

  14. WG4 retrospective • 2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS • ~2008: separation of the ensemble part to WG7 • 2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification) • Inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessing method • 2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI) Participation into various activities: • Verification and guidelines for forecasters • NWP Test suite • Feed back from forecasters • Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…)

  15. WG4 retrospective Always keep in view the bridge(s) between modellers and users (forecasters). Difficulties • The exchange of application and methods between countries is difficult. • Postprocessing and forecasters usually sit in other departments/divisions and do not participate to COSMO activities/meetings.

  16. WG4 perspectives • Discussions since January with SMC and STC • Nominate a focal point to WG4 in each country • Germany : M. Paulat • Switzerland : D. Cattani • Italy : A Canessa • Greece : D. Boucouvala • Poland : A. Mazur • Romania : A. Iriza • Russia : A. Bundel • Israel : A. Savir, E. Brainin • STC nominates a coordinator among them • Welcome and good luck Anastasia

  17. WG4 perspectives Defineterms of reference for WG4 with(new) orientations. Will beprecised by the WG. • Survey the development of “generic” “products” (Fog, Thunderstorms, Wind at a specific location and height, clear air turbulence (CAT), Icing, high impact weather). • “generic” means among others “not comercial”, “can be exchanged/used by all COSMO members” • Develop optimal aggregation and calibration methods • Survey (coordinate) methods intended to blend model output and observations, for instance in very short range forecasting. • Develop and promote guidelines to users/forecasters

  18. WG4 perspectives WG4 should not only be considered as considering activities happening downstream of the models, but should also convey back the requirements and worries of the users / forecasters to all WGs and the COSMO management. PTs and PPs will be defined. The whole WG will meet when the survey of requirements will be complete.

  19. Many thanks to all of you It has been my great pleasure to participate to COSMO since 2001. The consortium has since then doubled in number of member states and probably also in the amount of participating scientists. The structure and governance has evolved a lot, I hope in a sense of efficiency. The models have evolved from a 14km resolution to 1km with explicit convection. I would like to thank the successive SPMs Günther Doms, Tiziana Paccagnella, Marco Arpagaus, Michał Ziemiański and Dmitrii Mironov for fruitful collaboration. Also all members of the STC for the organisation and support. Last but not least all other WG coordinators for the collaboration they offered in the SMC. The relationship between forecasters and modelers is usually impregnated alternatively by hate and love. I was trying to promote the comprehension between these two worlds not only by explaining the strengths and weaknesses of the models, but also to bring back the requirements of the forecasters to the (more and more numerous) modelers. I also had the opportunity to meet interesting people from other countries. I think I can consider COSMO as a part of my (extended) family. I certainly will continue to consider these 16 years as a beautiful part of my life.

  20. Welcome to the new life

More Related