Drought Activities at the NOAA/NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch

1. Drought Activities at the NOAA/NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch Richard R. Heim Jr. Jay H. Lawrimore NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina USDM Workshop Portland, OR, October 2007

2. Overview • Monthly State of the Climate drought reports • Drought Monitor Activities (USDM, NADM) • FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index • Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring • NIDIS • International Drought Monitoring – Drought Early Warning System

3. State of the Climate Drought Reports • Monthly reports • Narrative & graphics • NOAA press release, plus: Global Analysis, Global Hazards & Significant Events, National Overview, Drought, Wildfire, Hurricane sections • Drought has U.S. focus • Online by mid-month (12th to 15th)

4. CMB Drought Web Pages • Drought Monitoring Tools • A static page that provides links to drought web resources from other organizations • Drought Termination in the U.S. • Based on Palmer Drought Index • Precip required to end/ameliorate drought & probabilities of it occurring • Weekly maps • Plot of indicators derived from CPC weekly data • Monthly Palmer Drought Index computed weekly

5. Drought Monitor (USDM/NADM) Activities • Author U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and North America Drought Monitor (NADM) • Host the NADM web site: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html • Compute the continental indicators for the NADM • U.S., Canadian, Mexican SPI, PCTPCP, & Palmer Drought Indices

6. Transitioning from Climate Divisions to Station Data for the U.S. • One of the action items from Oct 2006 NADM Workshop • For NADM drought indicator maps, have used stations for CN & MX & AK, climate divisions for contiguous U.S. • We are now also computing/plotting the North America indicator maps using stations for contiguous U.S. Stations in U.S. Climate divisions in U.S. Stations in U.S.

7. Precipitation Climatologies for N. America • Percent of annual precipitation maps • Monthly, 3-Month Seasons, 6-Month Seasons

8. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index • FMDI – a new drought index inspired by the Australian decile-based drought definition and the USDM • Based on precipitation percentiles • Computes: • Precipitation percentile for current month • Length (number of consecutive months) and begin year/month of current dry spell • Precipitation percentile for current N-month dry spell • Dx dry spell category (based on USDM categories) for current month • Length (number of consecutive months) and begin year/month of current wet spell • Precipitation percentile for current N-month wet spell • Wx wet spell category (based on analog to USDM categories)

9. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index • Dry Spell begins – when 3 consecutive months each have an anomaly <= 30th percentile and the anomaly of total precipitation for the 3 consecutive dry months falls beyond the cutoff (<= 30 percentile) • Dry Spell ends when: • the total precipitation for the months from beginning anchor year-month to current month no longer falls beyond the cutoff (<= 30th percentile), OR • the precipitation for the past 3 months is extremely wet (3-month total precipitation >= 70th percentile)

10. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index • Wet Spell begins – when 3 consecutive months each have an anomaly >= 70th percentile and the anomaly of total precipitation for the 3 consecutive dry months fall beyond the cutoff (>= 70 percentile) • Wet Spell ends when: • the total precipitation for the months from beginning anchor year-month to current month no longer falls beyond the cutoff (>= 70th percentile), OR • the precipitation for the past 3 months is extremely dry (3-month total precipitation <= 30th percentile)

11. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index • Has a Near-Real Time component and a Backstepping component • Requires serially complete data

12. FMDI can show Wet Spell Conditions as well as Dry Spell.

13. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index

14. FMDI Correlations With Other Drought Indices * 1/2003-5/2007

15. Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring • The instrumental data record extends back only about 100 years • Paleoclimatic data can extend our drought historical perspective back several hundred to thousands of years Based on station meteorological data Based on tree ring chronologies

16. Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data Base • Station data network across U.S., Canada, & Mexico • Monthly Max & Min Temperature & Precipitation • Gridded monthly temp, precip, & PDSI • 0.5 x 0.5 degree lat/lon grid • Computed for the instrumental period of the 20th Century

17. 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude/longitude grid for monthly temperature, precipitation, drought indices ~ 11,400 gridpoints

18. Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data Base • Paleoclimatic (tree ring) data base across the U.S., Canada, & Mexico • Spans the period from the late 20th Century back several hundred years

19. Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data Base • Point-by-point regression method • Applied to the 20th Century period common to both data bases • To develop regression equations relating the tree ring chronologies to the instrumental period gridded PDSI • This allows reconstruction of gridded PDSI for the pre-20th Century period covered by the tree ring data

20. Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring Creating the “Blend” • The gridded reconstructed PDSI data from the paleo record can be “stitched to” or “blended with” the gridded PDSI computed from the instrumental data • The instrumental gridded PDSI will be updated operationally on a monthly basis • Thus, the paleo-instrumental gridded blend is a “living” drought data base

21. Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring Monitoring Products – Gridded Data Base

22. NIDIS – National Integrated Drought Information System • NCDC / Climate Monitoring Branch: • Leading the NIDIS Drought Portal Conceptual and Social Design Team • Providing recommendations for and review of the Portal content • Providing programming support for the development of the Portal

23. International Drought Monitoring – Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) • Drought does not respect political boundaries • Water availability is emerging as a critical concern for the 21st Century • There are projections of potential increases in the frequency & intensity of drought due to climate change, coincident with population increases • An International Drought Early Warning System would enable the global community to give a coordinated response to the drought problem

24. International Drought Monitoring – Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) • November 30 GEO Ministerial Summit in Cape Town, South Africa • The Cape Town Summit is one of the early efforts to introduce the concept of a global drought early warning system to other countries • Video presentation, exhibit, and discussion planned to discuss the NADM, NIDIS, & how they fit into a Drought Early Warning System • Video will include NADM interviews with Canadian & Mexican partners • Tabletop book (“GEO – The Full Picture”) will be published in advance for Summit distribution – will include an NADM / DEWS chapter • Each Nation would need to evaluate their level of DEWS involvement – Ministerial support needed

25. International Drought Monitoring – DEWS • Objectives: An International Drought Information System that weaves together current and future observation systems from participating Nations to provide: • An early warning system for drought • Information for drought response, planning, mitigation, and recovery • An interactive, web-based drought portal and analysis tools • Provide critical drought information to countries with inadequate monitoring resources • Goals: • A system of systems for data & information sharing, communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought • Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis

26. International Drought Monitoring – DEWS • Build upon the groundwork laid by GEO (Group on Earth Observations) and GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) • Could be patterned after the North America Drought Monitor (NADM) and U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) • A Drought Early Warning System requires a GEO commitment • Operational responsibilities • Research collaboration for developing new monitoring, analysis, and forecasting technologies Many nations have important components of a drought early warning system. No one nation has all the tools, products, and data to deliver the best system.

27. Thank You! NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch Reports & Products: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html NCDC State of the Climate Reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html#state North America Drought Monitor: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html NIDIS: http://drought.gov/