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WORKSHOP ON ENERGY BALANCE AND PLANNING MODELS

WORKSHOP ON ENERGY BALANCE AND PLANNING MODELS. GABRIEL HERNANDEZ. Energy Information Management and Training Coordinator. ENERGY STATISTICS. December 9-12, 2013. Kingston, JAMAICA. ENERGY STATISTICS. ENERGY SUPPLY. INFORMATION ON SUPPLY CAN BE FOUND IN COMPANIES TRADING ENERGY. Producers.

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WORKSHOP ON ENERGY BALANCE AND PLANNING MODELS

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  1. WORKSHOP ON ENERGY BALANCE AND PLANNING MODELS GABRIEL HERNANDEZ Energy Information Management and Training Coordinator ENERGY STATISTICS December 9-12, 2013 Kingston, JAMAICA

  2. ENERGY STATISTICS ENERGY SUPPLY INFORMATION ON SUPPLY CAN BE FOUND IN COMPANIES TRADING ENERGY Producers Importers / Exporters Transporters Distributors Oil products, natural gas, coal, electricity Firewood, charcoal

  3. ENERGY STATISTICS ENERGYDEMAND THE ENGINE OF THE ENERGY SECTOR Distributors Statistical institution Associations of final consumers Consumers

  4. ENERGY STATISTICS ENERGYDEMAND ENERGY DEMAND ESTIMATION Amount of energy used Location Type of fuel End-use technology How they are used

  5. ENERGYDEMAND • UNDERSTANDINGTHEENERGYDEMAND Lifestyle Factors determining the demand of energy services Characteristics and technological developments Institutional frameworks Interrelationship between the above

  6. ENERGYDEMAND • PURPOSE OF MODULE Characteristics of energy demand in economic sectors: uses, processes, equipment, frequency, performance, efficiency Methodologies for quantifying energy consumption: Energy Balance and planning Additional sources of information Procedures and tools for estimating

  7. ENERGYDEMAND • FINAL ENERGYCONSUMPTION It is the last use given to energy sources to produce a good or to meet a need Where is energy consumed? Sectors: Transport Industrial Residential Public and Commercial Services Agriculture Fishing and Mining Construction and Other Energy Sector (No Energy)

  8. ENERGYDEMAND • FINAL ENERGYCONSUMPTION HEAT Processes: FE Thermal Energy Increase temperature Heat transfer Combustion DRIVING FORCE FE Mechanical Energy Energy Transmission Movement Engine

  9. ENERGYDEMAND • FINAL ENERGYCONSUMPTION Processes: LIGHTING Radiation EF Light bulb. Lighting OTHER EF EE Operation Electronic devices Devices Electrochemical Processes

  10. ENERGYDEMAND • FINAL ENERGYCONSUMPTION Movement Mechanical Energy Engine Thermal Energy FE Steam EE Boiler Combustion Increase temperature Heat Transfer

  11. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR Activities of freight and transportation of passengers

  12. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR Coverage:National and international transport service Observed: Vehicle CLASSIFICATION • Mode: Road, Rail, Air, River, Sea • Carried Subject: Passenger, freight • Type of Service: Public, Private, Official • Nature of Service: Urban, Interurban, National, international • Vehicle Type: Cars, motorcycles, trucks, jeeps, buses and subways, trucks, trains, boats, planes.

  13. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR – SUGGESTED CLASSIFICATION Urban Private Passenger Air Interurban Private Passenger Fluvial Urban Public Passenger Sea Interurban Public Passenger Road Urban load Interurban load Sources / footnotes

  14. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION FOR ROAD MODE C(f)= Consumption of the energy product f Q = Vehicle fleet Ce(f) = Specific consumption of f R = Traveled distance

  15. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND VEHICLE FLEET Qt=vehicle fleet of the year t Qt-1=vehicle fleet from previous year At=additions to vehicle fleet to the year t St=Vehicles leaving the vehicle fleet of the year t

  16. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND VEHICLE FLEET St data doesn’t exist At=additions to the vehicle fleet of the yeart Pn=Probability of not leaving the park a vehicle of n years old

  17. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR ENERGY DEMAND VEHICLE FLEET Probability of leaving the vehicle fleet in terms of age x=age of the vehicle Probability of remaining in the vehicle fleet one more year Sources / footnotes

  18. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR

  19. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR CALCULATION OF THE SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION(Km/gal) Ce(f) = Specific consumption of the source f Engine size, distance, urban or suburban route, age, fuel, road conditions, height above sea level

  20. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR CALCULATION OF THE SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION(Km/gal) Sources / footnotes

  21. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR CALCULATION OF THE DISTANCE TRAVELED Ru=Distance traveled in urban areas; Ri= Distance traveled in interurban areas R: Total distance traveled / Years of Service: Average annual travel survey

  22. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR CALCULATION OF THE DISTANCE TRAVELED Ri: Count of vehicles between stations multiplied by the distance between counting stations

  23. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION Sources / footnotes

  24. Final Energy Consumption TRANSPORT SECTOR FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION Railway: CONSUMPTION = (DO & C) sold to transport companies Ocean: CONSUMPTION = (DO, FO & C) sold to companies Air: CONSUMPTION = AV GAS & JP sold River: CONSUMPTION=Q * c * Yk Yk: Yearly km.

  25. Final Energy Consumption INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Coverage: Transform raw materials. Observed: Industrial facilities Classification Criteria: ISIC Sources / footnotes

  26. Final Energy Consumption INDUSTRIAL SECTOR – SUGGESTED CLASIFICATION ISIC Sector 31 Food, beverages, tobacco 32 Textile, confection, footgear y leather 33 Timber y furnishing 34 Paper & printing 35 Chemical 3692 Cement 36 Construction materials (ex. Cement) 37 Metals 38/39 Machinery, equipment & others Sources / footnotes

  27. Final Energy Consumption INDUSTRIAL SECTOR FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION Survey • Survey selection • Information to compile • Economic data • Energy purchases • Equipment Characteristics • Fuel consumption by use (Balance) • Fuel use=  consumption by use+Losses+Stock

  28. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR It corresponds to the secondary sector of the economy, which transforms raw materials into finished products The studies of energy in the Industrial Sector aims to determine the characteristics and conditions of the processes in which energy is used to establish and have the information necessary for the formulation of energy efficiency programs, substitution and control on environmental impact . The determination of energy destination in the industry are performed by two procedures. The first one, tracks down each energy source by identifying the quantities consumed in each process. The second procedure examines each process and quantified the amount of energy used, as well as useful energy absorbed.

  29. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR In either case we applied the energy balance concept, where the origin and destiny of energy, the entire industrial facility or each processes of the equipment used were considered as the primary unit of observation. In some cases direct measurements may be required for certain periods of time on the amount of energy used in each process or each equipment. Similarly, to establish useful power it will be necessary to measure the characteristics of the process or products obtained or generated from intermediate energy.

  30. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR In some countries a significant part of total energy consumption in the industry can be identified from the reports of distributing electricity companies or fuel companies. Most statistical agencies of countries make an annual industry survey through which values and quantities of energy purchased by industrial establishments are determined . In cases where such information is available, there is a consumption breakdown per use or equipment required from a survey or field study.

  31. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

  32. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

  33. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

  34. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OBSERVATION UNIT: Establishment: The combination of activities and resources that independently make a company or part of a company, to produce the most homogeneous group of manufactured goods at a location or geographical area and which separate records are kept on materials, labor and other physical resources used in the production process.

  35. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Universe: Secondary sector of the economy Observation Unit: Industrial establishments Population characteristics: Number of establishments, regional distribution, production, gross value added, employees, production Direct Information Sources: Energy trading companies, economic census, manufacturing surveys, previous studies, Indirect or additional information Sources: Census, surveys, reports of associations Energy used: EE, FW, NG, derivatives, biomass, coal, coke, other

  36. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Procedures to determine the final consumption: Surveys, measurements,mathematical models Variables required for consumption calculation: Facilities, physical production, number of employees, purchases of energy Characteristics that change the energy consumption: Subsector, technology,processes, production, operation and maintenance, fuel Types and forms of energy use: For processes and equipment Characteristics of energy based technologies: How the energy is used, performance.

  37. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Understanding the energy demand in the industrial sector Characteristics of the Universe: total facilities, production, value of production Observation unit : Each facility, each unit of product produced What is to be observed or measured: energy consumption By Facility By Process By Equipment By unit produced By unit of gross added value

  38. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Processes and equipment in the Industrial Sector Heat: Boilers, Water heaters, furnaces, stoves Driving Force : Engines, Electromechanical, refrigerators, air conditioning, pumps Lighting : Light bulbs, reflectors Other : Electrolysis, Office Equipment

  39. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Final energy consumption Total final consumption Total final consumption per source Total final consumption per energy and use

  40. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Total final consumption per energy product Appropriate OU: Industrial Establishment Observation and measurement of Cj(UO): EE, NG: Sheet Products: Purchases FW, CH: Measurement C, CK: Measurement

  41. ENERGY DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Total final consumption per energy and use Appropriate OU: Industrial Establishment Observation and measurement of Ci,j(UO): EE: Engines, lighting, electromechanical, electronic, heating, refrigeration, air conditioning NG, products, biomass, C, CK: Boilers, cooking, water heating,Heating, direct heat FORM

  42. Final Energy Consumption RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Coverage: Energy consumption in households Observed: Household Classification criteria: Area Income Suggested classification: Urban area Rural area Sources / footnotes

  43. Final Energy Consumption RESIDENTIAL SECTOR USES Heat: Direct Heat Movement: Mechanical force, refrigeration Lighting Others: Electronic process EQUIPMENT Heat: Water heater, furnaces, stoves Movement: laundry, refrigerators, Air Conditioner Lighting: bulbs Others: Electronic equipment

  44. Final Energy Consumption RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Electricity consumption: Ci = Wpi * Hi * CFi CF = Wr / Wp (Correction factor) Wr= Cr / t (Real potential) uses CEE =  Wpi * Hi * CFi i=1 Correction Factors: Air Conditioner 0.90 Lighting 0.94 Iron 0.28 Refrigerator 0.31 Stove 0.41 Water Heater 0.75 Oven 0.48 Mech. equipments 0.51 Radio electronics 0.55 Sources / footnotes

  45. Final Energy Consumption RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Fuel Consumption: NG, LPG, KE, FW: Cj = Hh * %j * Ce(v) Specific Consumptions by Household Cooking: LPG 165 gal/year NG 564 m3/year FW 2090 Kg/year KE 117 gal/year Water Heater: LPG 140 gal/year Sources / footnotes

  46. Final Energy Consumption FARMING, FISHING AND MINING Coverage: Production activities on farms, fishing, and mining projects.Agro food primary production and natural products.Fishing: Catch and fish processingMining: Extraction, processing, smelting and primary adjustment.Observation UnitAgriculture: FarmFishing: catching and processing unitsMining: Mine Sources / footnotes

  47. Final Energy Consumption FINAL CALCULUS CONSUMPTION FARMING, FISHING AND MINING • National survey of farming production and • Mining production registry • Subsectorial serial Sources / footnotes

  48. Final Energy Consumption FARMING CONSUMPTIONS FARMING, FISHING AND MINING • Consumptions: C(s,u,f) = EM * %U(s,u,t) * EC(f,t) • EM: Economical Measurement (cultivated area, production, heads). • U(s,u,t): Percentage of Es where is shown the use (U) with technology (t). • EC(f,t): Specific consumption of f per unit of Es for the use (U) with technology (t). • Required Information: • Measurement of economic activity • Technologies use for the production and processing • Specific consumption of energy in each technology.

  49. Final Energy Consumption FARMING CONSUMPTIONS FARMING, FISHING AND MINING • Technologies: • Tractors and combined • Irrigation • Aerial fumigation • Dried Grain • Distillation C(rice, tractor,DO) =cultivated area*%mechanized*Hr/Ha*gal/hr 88126.5 GAL = 5450 * 0.77 * 10.5 * 2 C(cotton,irrigation, EE)=cultivated area*%irrigated area* %irrigated area EE*kWh/Ha 618329 Kwh = 2550 * 0.0573 * 0.9 * 4702

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