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Households' Risks from a Danish Financial Stability Perspective

Households' Risks from a Danish Financial Stability Perspective. Tue Mathiasen Danmarks Nationalbank. Agenda. Aspects of the latest period of growth and recession Households’ debt and wealth financial non-financial Households’ debt service issues at the macro level at the micro level

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Households' Risks from a Danish Financial Stability Perspective

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  1. Households' Risks from a Danish Financial Stability Perspective Tue Mathiasen Danmarks Nationalbank

  2. Agenda • Aspects of the latest period of growth and recession • Households’ debt and wealth • financial • non-financial • Households’ debt service issues • at the macro level • at the micro level • Way forward DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  3. Growth and recession- net borrowing / net lending DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  4. Growth and recession- Changes in household balances DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  5. Households’ debt and wealth - Real economy spill-over DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  6. Households’ debt and wealth - Real economy spill-over DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  7. Households’ debt and wealth- Financial wealth DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  8. Households’ debt and wealth- Total wealth DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  9. Households’ debt and wealth- Property estimations • Lack of official statistics • High quality data sources • Register of all Danish property (buildings and land) • Continuous valuation of all Danish property • for tax purposes • Property price statistics • By Statistics Denmark • Property price index • By Association of Danish Mortgage Banks • Quarterly data on average square metre prices from open market transactions DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  10. Households’ debt and wealth- Property estimations (cont.) • Estimations within Danish NCB • Method • Combination of stock (register data) by owner sector and transaction prices (mortgage bank info.) • Stratification by groups of municipalities with similar degrees of urbanisation • Possibility of selection bias (actual traded property) • Not a full usage of all available high quality data sources DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  11. Households’ debt and wealth- Across Nordic countries DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  12. Households’ debt and wealth- Gross debt DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  13. Households’ debt service issues- macro level DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  14. Households’ debt service issues- composition of mortgage-credit DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  15. Households’ debt service issues- composition by mortgaging ratio DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  16. Households’ debt service issues- composition by income DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  17. Households’ debt service issues-exposure to interest rate changes DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

  18. Way forward • In general, a growing demand for official statistics supporting financial stability analysis • Examples of specific issues • Real property • Micro-macro link DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

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