Surviving 2010…. AND BEYOND

1. Surviving 2010….AND BEYOND Jay W. Goff Missouri S&T www.enrollment.mst.edu MACRAO, Lake Ozark, Missouri October 27, 2008

2. Record Classes Now….Later?

4. Source:WICHE 2003

5. The External Environment in which Colleges and Universities Operate is Changing Quickly • Dramatic changes in student markets. • Public expectations for a wide variety of high quality student services. • Greater needs for an institution-wide understanding of how to best react to the emerging student trends, needs and markets. 

6. Nationally, in 2009-10 the number of high school graduates will begin a gradual decline. The proportion of minority students is increasing and will account for about half of school enrollments within the next decade. High school graduates in the future will include higher percentages from families with low incomes. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income, and Race/Ethnicity, WICHE 2008. NATIONAL Shift Impacts on Higher Education

7. Strategic Enrollment Management (SEM) is defined as “a comprehensive process designed to help an institution achieve and maintain the optimum recruitment, retention, and graduation rates of students where ‘optimum’ is designed within the academic context of the institution. As such, SEM is an institution-wide process that embraces virtually every aspect of an institution’s function and culture.” Michael Dolence, AACRAO SEM 2001 Research Recruitment Retention What is SEM?

8. “Successful senior enrollment managers have to operate simultaneously on multiple levels. They need to be up to date, even on the cutting edge of technology, marketing, recruitment, the latest campus practices to enhance student persistence, and financial aid practices.” SOURCE: THE ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT REVIEW Volume 23, Issue 1 Fall, 2007, Editor: Don Hossler Associate Editors: Larry Hoezee and Dan Rogalski Today’s Enrollment Manager

9. “(Enrollment Managers) need to be able to guide and use research to inform institutional practices and strategies. Successful enrollment managers need to be good leaders, managers, and strategic thinkers. They have to have a thorough understanding of the institutions where they work and a realistic assessment of the competitive position in which it resides and the niche within which it can realistically aspire to compete. Furthermore, to be effective, enrollment managers must also have a sense of how public, societal, and competitive forces are likely to move enrollment-related policies and practices in the future.” SOURCE: THE ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT REVIEW Volume 23, Issue 1 Fall, 2007, Editor: Don Hossler Associate Editors: Larry Hoezee and Dan Rogalski Hossler continued

10. Strategic Framework: Mission, Values, Vision Overview of Strategic Plan Goals & Institutional Capacity Environmental Scan: Market Trends & Competition Analysis Evaluation and Assessment of Position in Market Enrollment Goals, Objectives, & Assessment Criteria Marketing and Communication Plan Recruitment Plan Retention Plan Student Aid and Scholarship Funding Staff Development and Training Student/Customer Service Philosophy Process Improvements and Technology System Enhancements Internal Communication and Data Sharing Plan Campus wide Coordination of Enrollment Activities What is included in a SEM Plan?

11. www.act.org www.collegeboard.org www.collegeresults.org www.nces.gov www.wiche.org www.ama.com www.educationtrust.org www.lumina.org www.greentreegazette.com www.postsecondary.org www.communicationbriefings.com Missouri Resources http://www.oseda.missouri.edu/ www.mcdc2.missouru.edu www.ded.mo.gov/researchandplanning www.nces.ed.gov/sdds www.dhe.mo.gov SEM DATA RESOURCES

12. “Missouri S&T will better define the university as a leading technological research university. We believe the new name will help to differentiate this university in a highly competitive university market and provide a national competitive advantage.” Dr. John F. Carney, III Missouri S&T Chancellor

13. The National Picture

14. SOURCE: U.S. Education Department http://chronicle.com Section: The 2007-8 Almanac, Volume 54, Issue 1, Page 8 Over 4200 Colleges & Universities:Heavy Competition for StudentsNumber of Colleges and Universities

15. “The demographic shifts we are beginning to experience are largely the result of welcome advances in technology and public health that have extended life expectancy, improved living standards, and reduced population growth.” SOURCE: Jane Sneddon Little and Robert K. Triest. (2001) SEISMIC SHIFTS: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE. Shifting Student Populations

16. College Board, 2007

18. Undergraduate Enrollment by Attendance Status 1986-2016 College Board, 2007 Source: U.S. Department of Education

21. SOURCE: US Dept. of Education 2005

23. SOURCE: WICHE, 2003, Knocking At College’s Door.

25. Constant Growth in One Demographic Market: Adults Over 60 SOURCE: US Census Bureau

26. College Board, 2007

27. College Board, 2007

28. SOURCE: WICHE 2008

30. Female Enrollments Exceed 57% of All College Students SOURCE: NCES, The Condition of Education 2006, pg. 36

32. 52.8% Missouri’s College-Going Rates of High School Graduates - Directly from HS

33. Some Institutions will: Expand their enrollments. Enroll student bodies that are less academically prepared. See shrinking enrollments. Need to expand their recruitment strategies and redefine the target populations. Have racial and ethnic composition of students may be markedly different from current classes. SOURCE: College Board. (2005). “The Impact of Demographic Changes on Higher Education” The Impact of Demographic Changes on Higher Education

34. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov/emp/home.htm Labor Demand vs. Student Interests

35. Ongoing interest declines in key fields Changes in Intended Major 1976-77 to 2006-07 DATA SOURCE: CIRP CHART SOURCE: College Board, 2007

36. Student Interest Trends in Engineering (<5%)

37. Fall 2008 Total Students

39. History Physical Therapy Journalism Communications Social Work Fashion & Textile Design Clinical Psychology Law Architecture Biology Creative Writing Top Twenty Graduate Degrees Searched for on gradschools.com since 2004 • 11. Physician Assistant • 12. Sports Administration • 13. MBA • 14. Fine Arts • 15. International Relations • 16. Art Therapy • 17. Counseling & Mental Health Therapy • 18. Public Health • 19. Educational & School Counseling • 20. School Psychology

42. Student Success Trends ACT, 2007

43. Financial considerations the most common reason for leaving college SOURCE: ELS:2002 “A First Look at the Initial Postsecondary Experiences of the High School Sophomore Class of 2002 (National Center for Education Statistics)

44. $35,000 $34,000 $33,000 $32,000 $31,000 $30,000 $29,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average Annual Wages: Missouri, 2000-2005 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

45. COLLEGE COST COMPARISON SOURCE: The College Board 2006, MAP: TIME, November 6, 2006

46. College Costs and Disposable Per Capita Income, 1996-97 to 2006-07 Source:The College Board

47. Percent For Whom Financing was a Major Concern 1992-93 to 2006-07 (Selected Years) College Board, 2007 Source: CIRP

48. Measuring Up Report Cards

50. Missouri’s FTC FTE Freshmen Trends 19812007 2-year Colleges 28,085 32,696 4-year Private 6,761 9,375 4-year Public 19,265 17,862