Sytske ( Seets-kah ) Kimball

1. Sytske (Seets-kah) Kimball University of South Alabama Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: • Surface observing (e.g. National Mesonet). • Central data repository (e.g. MADIS, NCDC) • QC • Meta data • Hurricane landfall observing strategies (e.g. DHR). US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

2. Sharan Majumdar RSMAS / University of Miami Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: • Advancing fundamental scientific understanding of ensemble forecasts. • Novel applications and communication of ensembles. 40% 200-850 hPa THICKNESS ANOMALY CIRCULATION US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

3. Brian A. Colle Stony Brook University / SUNY • Process-orientated observational and predictability studies of high impact precipitation structures within the cyclone comma head and warm sector (cells, multi-bands, single band) over W. Atl. and U.S. East Coast • Clear linkage to operations; • More targeting on mesoscale; • Joint effort with those interested in diabaticprecip heating impacts on large-scale; • Organized field effort would help address mesoscale predictability, data assimilation, and model physics improvements. Novak et al. (2010) US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

4. IstvanSzunyogh Texas A&M University Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Prediction Models (see Proceedings of ECMWF/THORPEX/WGNE Workshop, 2011) US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

5. Juanzhen(Jenny) Sun NCAR, USA Longmont, CO Great Colorado Flood of 2013 Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: Short-term QPF and urban flood prediction • Regional convection-permitting NWP • Data assimilation with local high-resolution observations • Integrated hydrometerological system • Information communication Photo: Dennis Pierce, AP US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

6. Jeffrey Czajkowski Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: 1) Given behavioral biases associated with LP-HC events, what motivates individuals / households/ commercial entities under the threat of a high-impact weather event – immediate or in the future - to: • Undertake short-term preparation activities • Undertake long-term mitigation activities 2) How effective are these actions in reducing losses and what role does insurance play in promoting these damage reducing activities? Hurricane Sandy - 19% of total respondents had indicated previously modifying their home with some form of mitigation other than window protection US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

7. Steven Cavallo Univ. of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: • Focus: Predictability and dynamics of higher-latitude lower-latitude linkages • Science areas: Tropopause dynamics, moisture transport, global linkages, stratospheric-tropospheric connections, extreme cyclones • Tools: High-resolution global, coupled models combined with regional models; data assimilation (esp. in high latitudes) US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

8. Edmund Chang Stony Brook University (SUNY) TIGGE was great, but could be extended Operational models as community models: • Supported at national center (NCAR?) • Available for use/development by academic/research community Ensemble reforecasts: • Dedicated effort to conduct reanalyses and reforecasts periodically with state-of-the art system Data Access: • Development of user friendly forecast/obs data archival and access system US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

9. Chris Davis NCAR Tropical Convection and Tropical Cyclones • Modeling, analysis and societal effects of TCs globally • Global convection resolving models (coupled ocean) • Observations of cloud systems (deep, congestus, shallow) and environments • Dynamics across latitudes/basins (tropical waves and Rossby waves) • Convection and forecast errors • HIW and S2S Archambault et al. 2013, MWR Tropical convection seen from the NSF/NCAR GV in PREDICT, Sept. 14, 2010 US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

10. Mitch Moncrieff NCAR Earth System Laboratory: Climate & Global Dynamics Division Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: • YOTC-Legacy Project: Organized moist convection & multiscale interaction in weather-climate intersection context: • Theoretical basis, high-resolution simulation, dynamical-based parameterization • General relevance: New era of mesoscale-permitting global models • Particular relevance: Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction • Virtual global field campaigns (high-resolution global weather model analysis, forecasts, subgrid data) as a large-scale context for actual field campaigns (insert figure here) Moncrieff et al. (2012) BAMS, 93, 1171-1187 doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00233.1 US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

11. John Nielsen-Gammon Texas A&M University Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: Synoptic diagnosis of the alternate worlds of CMIP runs (insert figure here) Geophysical Research LettersVolume 39, Issue 19, L19708, 5 OCT 2012 DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053115http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053115/full#grl29595-fig-0002 US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

12. The Problem: Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: Climate/Weather and Health Augustin Vintzileos University of Maryland/ESSIC – NOAA/CPC According to IPCC: “it is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas.”. Obviously such a future will stress current infrastructure (power grids, relief efforts, insurance costs) to breaking points. Alleviating the Problem: Investigate predictability of heat waves/climate related health hazards as much far in advance as possible under current climate conditions. First target: predictability of heat waves at Week-2. How: Define a set of atmospheric indices that captures past heat waves. Use ensemble multimodel reforecasts to assess predictability of these indices. Coordinate efforts with the health and energy sectors and disaster relief organizations to assess whether the accuracy of these reforecasts may provide them with a useful decision making tool. Utilize user feedback to refine the prediction system. US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

13. Name: Rebecca Morss Institution: National Center for Atmospheric Research Identify and address HIWeather questions that integrate predictability / modeling & communication / impacts / use e.g., How does evolving forecast/ warning/risk information propagate through the information and decision system as a weather hazard approaches? US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

14. Ben Kirtman University of Miami Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: • Reducing Prediction Model Bias • Particularly warm season precipitation • Objective Multi-Model Combinations • Identifying Complementary Skill • Producing well resolved estimates of uncertainty due to model formulation and initial condition errors (insert figure here) US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

15. Barbara Brown NCAR/RAL, Joint Numerical Testbed Program Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: • Connecting the forecasting process to users and applications • Using the information “chain” to inform the evaluation process • User-relevant evaluation • Understanding the quality, use and value of improved forecasts • Research to operations • How do new capabilities impact weather services? (insert figure here) US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

16. Name: David Parsons Institution: University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology Key issues: • Focus on convection and interaction with large-scale flow (build on PECAN experiment) • Focus on reduction in model and initial condition errors: ECMWF example -- Rodwell et al. 2014 and Lillo and Parsons (in preparation) (EOFs and analysis of ~584 ECMWF forecast busts) US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

17. Craig H Bishop Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA Suggested coordinated US activity for addressing key HIW issues • Create HIW archive from TIGGE archive: • HIW archive should include “almost HIW” events in which one or more ensemble members incorrectly predicted HIW. • Observations required to spin-up HIW forecasts should be included in HIW archive. • HIW Forecast Model Inter-comparison Project (FMIP) for agreed upon events in HIW archive: • FMIP should use agreed upon HIW metrics – amongst others. • Events in HIW archive enable tests of approaches to HIW issues, e.g. • Non-Gaussian distributions associated with rainfall, cloud, pollutants, etc. • Improved coupled air-sea-wave-flood-surge-ice-pollution modelling • Weather emergency response planning and dry-runs US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

18. Randy Dole, NOAA ESRL Key Issue: Predictions of Arctic Cyclones & Related Impacts Proposed US Focus: Intense cyclones affecting Alaskan region RATIONALE: Major impacts on life and property. Growing US/international interests Challenges - Coupled system, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice predictions vital Problem connects PPP, HIW, and S2S. Good opportunities for coordination Evidence for increasing trend in extreme storms with open coastal waters Oil National Security Villages Fisheries Fisheries Shipping Coastal community damage Kotlik Alaska Nov. 2013 Northern Alaska coast extreme storms/decade Extensive impacts

19. Name: Dr. Kimberly Klockow Institution: AAAS/AMS Key issues that should be addressed by a coordinated US effort: Identify institutional structures – not simply funding opportunities for research, but place(s), operational responsibilities, and partnerships – that will support and sustain linkages between physical and social sciences and practices. What do we ultimately want from social sciences? One approach: Answers. Static. Another: Partners. Dynamic. US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting

20. Name: Kevin M Simmons Institution: Austin College Insured Tornado Losses for OK and Cleveland County Compared to the cost of the new codes 1993-2013 Construction standards If the new Moore codes had been in place over the last 20 years, the cost would have been $185 million for Cleveland County. This chart compares that cost to insured losses over that period. For the new codes to payoff they would need to reduce insured losses by at least 2.5%, (.185/7.46). Engineers estimate that the new codes will reduce damage well beyond that. US THORPEX-Legacy Planning Meeting