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ISF :RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY

INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030. Report for Greenpeace Africa. Jay Rutovitz , 18th August 2010. THINK. CHANGE. DO. ISF :RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY. South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030. Introduction to ISF Overview of analysis

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ISF :RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY

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  1. INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030. Report for Greenpeace Africa. Jay Rutovitz , 18th August 2010 THINK. CHANGE. DO ISF:RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY

  2. South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030 • Introduction to ISF • Overview of analysis • The energy scenarios • Methodology • Employment results

  3. Institute for Sustainable Futures(ISF) • Research institute at University of Technology Sydney, set up in 1996, with mission: To create change towards a sustainable future through independent, project-based research ISF undertook analysis of the employment effects of the Greenpeace International Energy [R]evolution: • Working for the Climate, Greenpeace International, 2009, and Energy sector jobs to 2030: a global analysis, Jay Rutovitz and Alison Atherton, 2009 Greenpeace Africa asked us to analyse the employment effects of the South African Energy [R]evolution.

  4. Overview of our analysis • ISF analysed SA Energy [R]evolution for Greenpeace Africa, looking at three scenarios • Business as usual case derived from IEA 2007 projection • Energy [R]evolution scenario, which achieves 60% emissions reduction by 2050 • Added in the Growth Without Constraints scenario (from Long Term Mitigation Scenarios) • We included one scenario with enhanced renewable manufacturing, and export to the rest of Africa • Electricity sector jobs only • Direct jobs only (does not include jobs in accommodation, catering, or from spending wages)

  5. The energy scenarios: electricity generation to 2030 Coal Gas, oil & diesel Nuclear Renewable Efficiency 600 500 400 Electricity TWh/ year 300 200 100 0 GWC [R]evolution GWC [R]evolution GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA IEA IEA 2010 2015 2020 2030

  6. The energy scenarios: electricity generation to 2030 Coal Gas, oil & diesel Nuclear Renewable Efficiency IEA REF 4% IEA REF + 47% Greenhouse emissions 2030 compared to 2010 Renewable electricity in 2030 GWC 1% GWC + 48% Energy [R]evolution Energy [R]evolution - 21% 36% 600 500 400 Electricity TWh/ year 300 200 100 0 GWC [R]evolution GWC [R]evolution GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA IEA IEA 2010 2015 2020 2030

  7. Methodology - inputs Employment factors (jobs per MW) UNCERTAINTY SA factors where possible, otherwise OECD factors + multiplier. Adjustment for cost decline. Energy efficiency job factor (only for the reduction in electricity consumption) Includes a proportion of energy efficiency achieved by solar water heating

  8. Employment factors – key inputs Construction jobs per megawatt (MW) capacity increase Operations and maintenance (O&M) jobs per MW installed Fuel jobs per gigawatt hour (GWh) For coal this means coal mining jobs per GWh South African factors for Coal mining Coal construction Coal, nuclear and hydro generation O&M Solar water heating

  9. Employment factor - adjustment from OECD Labour intensity tends to be higher in countries with lower GDP per capita. One method: multiply OECD factors by the ratio of labour productivity* in SA to labour productivity in the OECD. This would mean multiplying by 4.6. We used the weighted average of the ratio between local factors and OECD employment factors, which is 2.15. Conservative approach. * GDP per person employed

  10. Efficiency Efficiency - SWH Ocean Solar thermal Geothermal PV Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear Oil & diesel Coal Coal exports Gas Jobs in the energy sector - results JOBS 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolution Without Constraints Coal exports

  11. IEA REF + 27% GWC + 5% Efficiency Efficiency - SWH Ocean Solar thermal Geothermal PV Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear Oil & diesel Coal Coal exports Gas Jobs in the energy sector - results Compared to JOBS 160,000 6,700 jobs 31,900 jobs 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolution Without Constraints Coal exports

  12. IEA REF + 27% GWC + 5% Efficiency Efficiency - SWH Ocean Solar thermal Geothermal PV Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear Oil & diesel Coal Coal exports Gas What if we don’t include coal exports? Compared to JOBS 160,000 6,700 jobs 31,900 jobs 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolution Without Constraints Coal exports

  13. IEA REF + 49% GWC + 18% Efficiency Efficiency - SWH Ocean Solar thermal Geothermal PV Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear Oil & diesel Coal Coal exports Gas Jobs excluding coal exports Compared to JOBS 160,000 21,700 jobs 46,900 jobs 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolution Without Constraints Coal exports

  14. Renewable and total jobs at 2020* IEA Reference Total jobs 74,000 Renewable 7% of jobs Energy [R]evolution Total jobs 113,000 Renewable 51% of jobs Growth Without Constraints Total jobs 70,000 Renewable 3% of jobs * Excluding coal exports

  15. Enhanced manufacturing scenario • Standard analysis assumes 20% components for all energy technologies are manufactured in South Africa • In enhanced scenario increased to 50% by 2030 (70% for solar water heating) • Assumes South Africa exports components for 30% of the growth in renewable energy in the rest of Africa by 2030

  16. Energy [R]evolution with enhanced manufacturing – jobs results Manufacturing exports Construction andmanufacturing Efficiency Coal exports Fuel Operations and maintenance Compared to JOBS 200,000 IEA REF + 56% GWC + 28% 33,700 jobs 40,400 jobs 160,000 65,600 jobs 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 IEA Reference Growth Without Constraints Energy[R]evolution Energy [R]evolution enhanced manufacturing

  17. Conclusion • The Energy [R]evolution has the potential to create more employment than business as usual. • Substantial benefit compared to the IEA reference scenario, net increase of 78,000 jobs by 2030 (46,000 in the IEA Reference). • Even if SA does not take action to reduce greenhouse gases, coal exports are vulnerable to action elsewhere. • Developing a strong renewable sector ‘future proofs’ SA economy; enhanced renewable scenario 56% compared to business as usual. • South Africa needs to decide whether to be an importer or an exporter of renewable technology in coming decades.

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