Oscar González Soto ITU Consultant Expert Strategic Planning and Assessment

1. ITU / BDT Regional Network Planning Workshop with Tool Case Studies for the Arab Region Cairo - Egypt, 16– 27 July 2006 Requirements for decision making. Strategic Planning and Solution Mapping Oscar González Soto ITU Consultant Expert Strategic Planning and Assessment ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

2. Requirements for decision making and planning Content • Requirements to the Network Planner • Scope and activities within the network planning area • Strategic Planning and new Technologies. • Solution mapping per scenario ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

3. Requirements for decision making and planning Key requirements in competition • Business Oriented Needs • What are the best customer segments to address ? • Which services have to be introduced through time ? • What is the best service bundling per customer type ? • How to maximize revenues ? • How to reduce capital expenditure ? • How to reduce operational expenditure ? ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

4. Requirements for decision making and planning Key requirements in competition • Network Oriented Needs • How to forecast services and traffic demands? • How many nodes to install ? • What is best location for systems and related communication media ? • What is the best network architecture and routing ? • Best balance between built and lease ? • How to plan capacity evolution and solutions migration ? • How to ensure SLA and protection level ? ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

5. Requirements for decision making and planning Key requirements in competition • Operation Support Needs • How to evaluate alternatives for direct operation and outsourcing ? • How to organize the operation processes ? • Which IT applications ensure an efficient support to operation ? • How to train labor force on the operational activities ? ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

6. Procurement & Delivery Network Design The Managed Network Services Connectivity Inventory Network DB Topology Infrastructure Installation & Commissioning Network Planning Network Operation Services Management Maintenance & Repair Requirements for decision making and planning Role within the network lifecycle ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

7. Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Mission “Decision making on the network deployment to Optimize Business based on quantitative evaluation” • Considering geo-marketing scenarios and traffic demand • Overall vision on the network layers • Deciding network topology, interconnection and routing • Optimizing balance between performance/SLA and cost (CAPEX + OPEX) • Considering regulatory constraints • Anticipating business evaluation and feasibility ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

8. Architecture and Technology Know-How Market and demand forecasting Teletraffic Methodology Operational Research and optimization Economical Engineering Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

9. Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY • Historical projection: ARMA, ARIMA, etc. • Analogy with other demands • Evolutionary (grow lifecycle) • Causal on originating factors • Scenarios (alternatives and feasibility) • Visionary (imagination) Market and demand forecasting ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

10. Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY • Statistical flow modeling for arrival rates and • holding times • Capacity models based on stochastic processes: • Analytical and Simulation • Dimensioning based on efficiency and QoS • Good founding on the multiple contributions • from the International community (ITC) Teletraffic Methodology ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

11. Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY • Linear programming method of “simplex” • Non linear modeling procedures based on gradients • Flow Optimization critical path, maximum flow, etc. • Combinatorial processess "branch and bound” • Iterative processess decisión by succesive comparisons • Heuristic procedures hybrid with emphasis on constraints • and equipment characteristics Operational Research and optimization ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

12. Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Typical activities (1) • 1) Problem and Network Partitioning to reduce complexity • 2) Data Gathering to match real needs • Geo- scenarios • Existing Network & carried services • Current Performance and waiting lists • 3) Demand Forecasting and traffic characterization • 4) Definition of Solution Alternatives ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

13. Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Typical activities (2) • 5) Mapping best alternatives to requirements in coverage and technologies • 6) Nodes/Links Design, Location and Dimensioning • 7) Network Costing in CAPEX and OPEX • 8) Optimization for routing and deployment • 9) Sensitivity Analysis to demand level, QOS, etc. • 10) Documentation of Network Plan and deployment ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

14. By Time Short, Medium,Long term • By Level of Detail Strategic/Business/Network/NE • By Network Layer Service layer up to Infrastructure • By Network Segment Access,Metro, Core, end-to-end • By Technology PSTN,SDH, Radio, ATM, IP, etc • By Service POTS, Data, LL, Video, etc By Solution Combination of the previous for a Project Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Dimensions ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

15. Role and market segments within competition • Main evolution for technologies and architectures. NGN • Solution mapping per scenario Requirements for decision making and planning Strategic view Key decisions to guide the overall network structure, services and technologies: ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

16. Selection of market segments: economy of scale • “Make” versus “outsource” decision • Policy on revenues and financing • Partnership selection • Priorities definition Requirements for decision making and planning Strategic Planning: Role in competition ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

17. Requirements for decision making and planning : Evolution on Technology and architecture • Technological alternatives: Which, When and Where • Architecture at core and access segments • Operation support applications • Planned evolution steps • Convergence strategy ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

18. Requirements for decision making and planning :Solution Mapping • Characterize variety of geo-scenarios within the country • Define parameters for scenario and solutions • Techno-economical evaluation to select best Cost of Ownership ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

19. Compliance • Services • Capacities • Availability • Operational constraints Input criteria • Techno-economical • Evaluation • Architecture • Density • Capital expenditure • NPV of full costs • Entry costs Results Projects/ Geo-scenarios Actions Selected Scenarios • Qualifiers • Flexibility • Speed to service • Evolution • Experience Network Models Mapping Technical Solutions Selected Network Solutions Mapping Economical Solutions Mapping Qualified Solutions Recommendations Requirements for decision making and planning Solution Mapping: Methodology ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

20. + = Requirements for decision making and planning Solution Mapping: Cost Modeling OPERATING COSTS CAPITAL COSTS • Rights of way • Space rental • Operations and maintenance • Power • Management and salaries • Cost of inventory • Marketing campaigns • Overheads • Electronic equipment • Cables • Civil works • Licenses, permits • Installation • Replacement • Customer premises equipment FULL COSTS ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

21. Suburban L1 L2 Metropolitan L5 L4 L3 Villages Rural clusters L1: Distance between suburban L2: Suburban - metropolitan distance L3: Suburban - village distance L4: Distance between villages L5: Distance between rural Requirements for decision making and planningSolution Mapping:Example of Geo Scenarios ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

22. Direct: POTS /ISDN Narrowband (up to 144 Kbit/s) Point to Multipoint RSU: POTS /ISDN Satellite-Bidirectional Multiservice DLC (FTTC) xDSL PLC SDH/SONET Add Drop Mux FTTB/APON/EPON Ethernet CATV(HFC) WiMAX/MMDS/WIP Wireless Wireline Wireline WLAN Wireless LMDS Satellite-Bidirectional DBS/DBT Requirements for planning:Solution MappingTechnological alternatives at access (Fixed) Access Technologies Broadband ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

23. 7 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 4 % 25 % 12 % 13 % 51 % 74% OSP Primary PSTN access Secondary PSTN core Civil Works DATA Overlay Engineering Transport Management Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping Investment Splitting in Greenfield Access Infrastructure (OSP) Cost Composition (Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+Aerial) Network Cost Composition for overlay PSTN and Data (Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+ Aerial) ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

24. 300 250 Metrop. total 200 Metrop. infrastructure Sub. total Monetary units 150 Sub. infrastructure 100 50 0 529 894 651 774 1 139 1 381 1 625 2 112 2 235 2 355 1 016 1 259 1 504 1 747 1 870 1 990 2 477 Density (subscribers per KM²) Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping Investment sensitivity to density inWL Access High density areas ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

25. 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 Monetary 2 500 units 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 7 10 13 17 20 23 27 30 33 37 40 Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping Solution selection per customer density Technology A Technology B Technology C HDSL with LLU access Density of lines (2Mbps per km^2) ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

26. Multiservice and DSLAM xDSL 8000 APON/FTTH High density CATV/HFC Switching based access (RSU) 1000 1000 Overlap area Quantitative Dif. < 10% “Qualitative assignment” Medium density 200 Wireless Access Narrowband - High clustering 200 Wireless Access Wideband/BB Low density 20 Fixed GSM - Low clustering Satellite Satellite 0.5 Cust./Km2 Services &Traffic POTS/Fax POTS/ISDN/Data POTS/Data nx64 POTS/data/Video Multimedia BB Requirements for planning: Solution MappingTechno-economical Recommendation ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.

27. Requirements for decision making and planning Reference benefits • Adequate definition of customer segments, services and business to ensure efficient operation in competition • Anticipation of 2 to 3 years in the positive IRR • Saving factors of 20% to 200 % by best solution/technology mapping in the access segment • Additional gains between 20 to 40 % by topology/routing optimization ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.