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Market Sizing North America Intelligent & Integrated Technologies. Market Sizing North America Intelligent & Integrated Technologies Overview for CABA IIBC at AHR2010. Jan. 25, 2010. Market Sizing North America Intelligent & Integrated Technologies. Level 2 sponsors. Level 1 sponsors.
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Market Sizing North AmericaIntelligent & Integrated Technologies
Market Sizing North AmericaIntelligent & Integrated Technologies Overview for CABA IIBC at AHR2010 Jan. 25, 2010
Market Sizing North AmericaIntelligent & Integrated Technologies Level 2 sponsors Level 1 sponsors
Experienced Project Team Andrew Giles, MAGeneral ManagerBSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI) Jeremy Towler, BBA, HTEC, dipl. Oek. Senior ManagerIntelligent Building Technology Lone HansenSenior ManagerI.T. Cabling and Associated Technologies Gambi Chiang, MSc, BEng, MCIM, Charter MarketerSenior Manager Special Projects Sukant Rout, BEng(Telecom), MBASenior Market Research Consultant: Intelligent Building Controls / IT Cabling & Associated Technologies Ianire Cobeaga, MBAMarket Research Consultant Intelligent Building Technology Allan McHale, CEng, MIMechE, MIst Energy, MBIM. Independent Consultant
Study Objectives Purpose Detailed assessment of current and future markets around intelligence in non-domestic buildings in North America Quantitative and qualitative market assessment, segmentation, competitor analysis, routes to market Size markets for principle applications plus integrated and IT-converged solutions Scope IT Convergence Environmental Controls Lighting Controls Security Systems Fire Detection Systems Timetable June – Dec 2009
Key Findings Environmental (HVAC) Building Controls The market will compete in applying BAS to tackle climate change issues Companies need to obtain and disseminate both controls and IT knowledge Lighting Controls Huge savings and market potential Consolidation to provide total lighting solutions and more integration LED lighting is a growing market but controls required for better efficiency Security Systems CCTV / Video surveillance setting the pace, followed by access control Strong movement towards IP systems and integration of security systems Fire Detection and Alarm Robust, growing market, driven (and constrained) by codes & regulations Demand for better evacuation solutions will drive integration of nascent mass notification / voice evacuation market
$20 Billion Systems* Market 2009 $8.5 Billion Market for Products* (incl. cable & cabinets) 2009 • Systems = Product + Value Add (Engineering, Commissioning, Installation) excluding maintenance • Products = Hardware, Software, Cable and Cabinetsat first point of distribution prices
End-user Sectors • Top vertical markets: Education Offices Central / Local Government Health 13% 12% 11% 9%
IBC Markets will Rebound USA US$ Bn. Source: Economist/ US Census Bureau Canada Source: StatCan * Intelligent Building Controls Depressed economy, lack of credit, increasing building vacancies Fall in new construction, delayed refurbishment and retrofit However, IBC* markets have outperformed Economic stimulus will help boost demand – particularly public sector IBC* markets expected to return to growth late 2010/early 2011
Definition Convergence Convergence is to bring together autonomous systems onto a common communication platform within the business enterprise and create a single unified solution Network = Ethernet Cat 5/5e/6 and/or fibre BMS structure IT network/ backbone
Definition integration However nearly all integrated solutions are also converged at least at management level - many also at control level Integration is to add value by joining or linking different building services products Service layer (IP provider) Management level (Mostly IP) Automation/control layer (IP/BACnet/LON/proprietary) Automation/control layer (IP/BACnet/LON/proprietary)
Total system market $20 billion • 56% = stand-alone • 44% = integrated and/or converged 34% integrated and converged 8% converged (IT) only 2% integrated only BMS IT 21% on a separate BMS infrastructure 13% on the IT network/backbone
Stand-alone vs. integration/convergence by product area, US$ million, 2009 • Stand alone is high for lighting, intrusion and fire (~90%) • IT convergence only – 25% for CCTV, 6% access • Integration and convergence high for BMS (54%) and access (45%)
Forecast 2009 – 2013, % split by stand-alone vs. integrated and converged
Trends • Intelligent buildings not a new topic, but new attention to energy usage and building performance • Many corporations increasingly take centralised decisions and need more and better information • Government wants to reduce CO2 emissions and energy consumption • Technology advancements are key drivers e.g. IP, wireless, PoE • IT barriers (lack of bandwidth, security) solved! • Scope and expertise increasing, integration/convergence of products • A number of companies can now take on the role of Master SI (the outcome however still depending on the person in charge) • Data centres are becoming more intelligent
Smart Grid - Definition • An intelligent electricity system that connects all supply grid (utilities) and demand elements (end-users) through an intelligent communication system
Barriers • Resistance from FM and from IT to converge (stick to own areas of expertise and competence) • Lack of training and skills • Construction process uses traditional route with main contractor and sub-contractors • Long-term outsourcing contracts • Historic objections relating to the IT infrastructure e.g. security, downtime, bandwidth
Energy and building performance Energy savings and efficiency Improve building performance (better decisions) Reduce maintenance costs Increase the value of the building/rental revenues Security Higher level of security (physical and IT security converged) Efficient data sharing Remote access Improving storage Access cards a requirement Link data sharing between departments 2 Main Drivers of Convergence 1 2
BMS IT Security Large projects 90%-100% converged at management level (Ethernet) IT convergence not perceived a benefit by many BMS suppliers IT suppliers keen to drive IT convergence Cisco: Mediator and hardware IBM: software, consultancy and Master SI Oracle, HP, Plexus etc. offer software/advice - Integrated in BMS offering - Driven by IT (hardw, cabling suppliers/channel) - Security SI/installers high end drive it Who is driving convergence?
Energy rating schemes Political/ economic factors End-users Most converged buildings are in US LEED silver/gold/platinum - International pressure to reduce CO2 Government funded projects Buildings consume 70% of electricity and 40% of primary energy - Pressure from society and clients to have a green profile - Reduce energy costs - Improve building performance and management Who is driving convergence? A driver for convergence, but not necessarily IT convergence
The Main Systems Integrators CISCO IBM HP Oracle Others, Accenture, Plexus, Wipro etc.
Trends in the Installed Building Controls System Market • Growing demand for integration of various building controls system to a centralized one • Increased share of smaller scaled contract • Reduced contract size due to OEM packaged supply • BACnet will continue to challenge LON’s share • Proprietary system will continue to diminish • Penetration of LON in smart meters
Development of Integrated Building Management Systems (IBMS) Integrate with sub-systems Integrate with other BAS Integrate with other systems Integrate with other enterprises systems Open Standards Enabling Convergence
Development of IBMS • Integration with sub-systems is the norm • Centralized monitoring and control more common • Integrated systems are mostly IT converged • Share information to improve building and enterprise performance • Integrate for the purpose of energy saving • Driven by end users and ROI is the critical factor • Better recognition of the benefits of integration in: • Banking, transportation, education, health, high-tech manufacturing, life science, communication and data centre sectors
How Quickly will Integration Grow? • Hurdles: • Too much customization • Lack of standard applications • Ability to demonstrate and convince the clients on ROI Number of Projects Time
Key Market Drivers and Trends Current drivers • Energy management • More function to reduce energy consumption • Data visualization software and enterprise dashboards • Integrate smart meters • Energy monitoring, reporting and analysis service • LEED and Energy Star Label • Energy Legislation and codes • Government stimulus Long term driver • Smart grid development • Monitor consumption and track min. and peaks • Automatic demand response • Demand modeling
Key Market Drivers and Trends • Energy saving applications • Open system • Integration and IT convergence • Increase in energy retrofit • Consolidation will continue • Compete in the knowledge in buildings and BAS applications • Controls contractors migrate to system integrators
Lighting Controls Conclusions Huge potential for lighting controls in the North American market Integration of lighting controls with other building systems will increase - lots of push from manufacturers and end users are beginning to understand the returns The transition to skilled and trained people with knowledge and understanding of energy management products will take time
Lighting Controls Trends DOE will play major role in driving control (and LED) standards Energy regulations through ASHRAE standard is big controls driver Standard open communication protocols is growing trend - mostly driven by integration with other systems Integration and IP-Convergence growing but apart from HVAC adoption low Consolidation – Acuity/Philips/Cooper Controls acquiring companies to provide total lighting solutions Wireless - ENOCEAN in commercial, Zigbee in residential Dimming Ballasts ~10% of total ballasts market in North America LED is growing market - still require controls for better efficiency
Fire Detection/Alarm Communications and Web Enabling • Majority of fire systems sold with proprietary protocol • Some BACnet equipped panels but penetration marginal – using to integrate fire panel with the HVAC system • Strict fire codes make fire system integration to non-fire systems rare • However, more end users insisting manufacturers make comms. protocol details available to enable integration by independent integrators • IP being used to connect fire panels with mass notification systems • <10% of fire systems web-enabled (remote interrogation) but growing • Web-enabled examples include small commercial chains as cost effective solution to manage buildings portfolio • Reticence towards IT-Convergence and limited installer knowledge • Consolidated supply side limits innovation
Security Systems Product Sales Forecast to 2013 • Market opportunities reduced due macroeconomic situation • 2009 sales fall, recovering end of 2010 • Less feature rich products gain share in short term • Performance will vary by type of sub-system
Integration of Security Systems • Increasing interest in holistic security solutions • 20% of security systems sold in 2008 were integrated • Open architecture platforms and development of industry standards will have a positive impact on sales • However, demonstrable benefits of integration and return on investment are essential High Low Low Low
The future Increase in energy saving applications and retrofit More security solutions Open systems, IP, integration, IT convergence Compete on knowledge of buildings and applications Controls contractors become system integrators and master SIs Consolidation / Partnerships between best-in-class suppliers IT companies augment their offering to include new applications - Facility management, energy management, security……. There will be more solution providers Educate, disseminate, prove ROI
End Thank you