1 / 14

Comprehensive Capital Market Solutions For Commercial Real Estate

Comprehensive Capital Market Solutions For Commercial Real Estate. NC CCIM – 2013 Commercial Real Estate Forecast. Others 10%. Others 5%. Finance Companies 2%. State & Local Gov 2%. Commercial Banking 34%. Commercial Banking 33%. State & Local Gov 7%. Life Insurance Cos 14%.

megan
Download Presentation

Comprehensive Capital Market Solutions For Commercial Real Estate

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Comprehensive Capital Market SolutionsFor Commercial Real Estate NC CCIM – 2013 Commercial Real Estate Forecast

  2. Others 10% Others 5% Finance Companies 2% State & Local Gov 2% Commercial Banking 34% Commercial Banking 33% State & Local Gov 7% Life Insurance Cos 14% CMBS, CDO, and other ABS Issues 24% Life Insurance Cos 13% CMBS, CDO, and other ABS Issues 26% Agency and GSEs 16% Agency and GSEs 14% Commercial / Multifamily Debt Outstanding ComparisonBy Investor Group $2.38 Trillion, Q3 2012 $2.37 Trillion, Q3 2011 Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association

  3. Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Flows Net Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector (in Millions) Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association

  4. Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loan Originations • Compared to Q3 2011…… • Q3 2012 origination volumes 7% lower. • Borrowing slowed in Q3 despite low interest rates due to moderate pace of commercial transactions (retail and office) and a continued drop in loan maturities. Property types that increased were hotels (4%), industrial and healthcare (19%), multifamily (30%). • Among investors, life company loans decreased by 32%, 8% increase for commercial banks, 30% increase for GSEs, no change in volume for CMBS. Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association

  5. Outstanding U.S. CRE Debt Total Commercial and Multifamily = [$2.42 Trillion] • Insurance companies = [$338 Billion (14%)] • GSEs = [$369 Billion (15.25%)] • CMBS = [$579 Billion (24%)] • Banks/Thrifts = [$811 Billion (33.50%)] • Other = [$319 Billion (13.25%)]

  6. Quarterly Originations Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association

  7. Quarterly Issuance of CMBS Billions of Dollars

  8. Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loan Market Share • $2.38 trillion in outstanding commercial/multifamily mortgage debt in Q3 2012, $6.6 billion higher than Q2 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings. • Fannie, Freddie, FHA, life insurance companies, and banks all increased their holdings and/or guarantees of commercial and multifamily mortgages, outpacing a decline in the balance of commercial and multifamily mortgages held in commercial mortgage backed securities. Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association

  9. Delinquency Rates • DQ rates decreased for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in Q3 • DQ rates on bank-held loans is at lowest level since beginning of 2009 • DQ rates for CMBS continues to stabilize. • Based on UPB by Investor Group at end of Q3 2012 • Life Companies 0.12% (60+ days) (0.19% in 2011) • Freddie Mac 0.27% (60+ days) (0.33% in 2011) • Fannie Mae 0.28% (60+ days) (0.57% in 2011) • Banks 2.93% (90+ days) (3.76% in 2011) • CMBS 8.86% (30+ & REO) (8.92% in 2011) Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association

  10. CMBS Maturities$492 Billion over next six years

  11. 2012 What Was Hot Multifamily – 80% LTV, 4% rate Grocery-Anchored Retail – 75%, 4.25% Office – 70%, rollover, TIs Industrial – 70%, 20 year amort 2013 What’s Hot Multifamily – 85%, 3.50% Grocery-Anchored Retail – 75%, 4% Office / MOB – 75%, rollover, focus on TIs Industrial – 75%, rollover Hospitality – 70%, 10.75% DY, 235bps over Self-Storage – 75% Credit Retail – fully amortizing to lease term CMBS – 75%, A-B Structures down to 1.10x 2012 What Wasn’t Unanchored Retail – 60%, rollover Hospitality/Lodging – go away Self-Storage – 65% @ 9% caps 2012 What’s Not Unanchored Retail – 65%, historical tenancy

  12. Historical10 Year Treasury Yield Curve, 1962 – 2013 July 1981 15.84% 1.38% July 2013

  13. 10 Year Treasury Yield Curve, March 2011 to March 2012 2.27% 3.54% 1.71% 10 Year Treasury Yield Curve, March 2012 to March 2013 2.03% -99bps 2.37% 1.38%

  14. Grandbridge Real Estate Capital – Raleigh Office 700 Spring Forest Rd, Suite 325 Raleigh, NC 27609 Bob Hukill, Senior Vice President bhukill@gbrecap.com | 919.871.6300 Velinda Dismukes, Assistant Vice President vdismukes@gbrecap.com | 919.871.6300 Wesley Fricks, Analyst wfricks@gbrecap.com | 919.871.6300

More Related