Maarten van Ham & Peteke Feijten

1. Who wants to leave the neighbourhood?The effect on moving wishes of being different from the neighbourhood population Maarten van Ham & Peteke Feijten

2. Residential mobility studies • Residential mobility is mainly explained from individual and household characteristics + characteristics of the dwelling: • age, household composition • educational level, income • dissatisfaction with the dwelling • Indications that also the neighbourhood plays a role in the decision to move… But the neighbourhood gets little attention in the literature.

3. Residential mobility and neighbourhoods • About 10% of the Netherlands population moves every year. • 75% of the movers leave their neighbourhood (postcode area). • Flows between neighbourhoods are selective (for example high income groups leaving certain neighbourhoods). • Insight in the role of the neighbourhood in residential mobility is important to understand the mechanisms behind segregation and neighbourhood deterioration.

4. Residential mobility on postcode level 25 km A U TH R

5. The role of the neighbourhood in residential mobility behaviour • The neighbourhood can play a role in individual moving decisions. • physical characteristics: amount of green, noise, air pollution, building density. • social characteristics (population composition): ethnic composition, socio-economic level, age structure. • If people are unsatisfied about the neighbourhood or the neighbourhood population, this may trigger their desire to leave the neighbourhood. • In our paper we focus on the role of the population composition of neighbourhoods in people’s decision to leave the neighbourhood.

7. Schelling’s segregationhypothesis (1971) • Behaviour at micro level: • People prefer to live among others who are like themselves (income, religion, ethnic background). • Therefore: people who belong to a minority in a neighbourhood, will be more likely to have a wish to leave the neighbourhood than those belonging to a majority. • Effect at macro level: • Increasing (spontaneous) segregation • Schelling’s model is purely theoretical; first empirical test by Clark (1991) for US.

8. Research questions To what extent and how does the population composition of the neighbourhood influence individuals’ wish to leave their neighbourhood? Central hypotheses: • People are more likely to have the wish to leave their neighbourhood with an increase of the... • percentage of low income households • percentage of immigrants • percentage of rented dwellings • This mechanism is less strong (or is even nullified) for persons who have such a characteristic themselves (Schelling).

9. Data • Housing Demand Survey 2002 (WBO) • Sample: 62,144 respondents, 18-80 years old, living independently. • Information on… • Individual background characteristics • Residential situation and location (4-digit postcode) • Satisfaction with dwelling • Wish to leave the neighbourhood • Enriched with neighbourhood characteristics (physical and social) at postcode level • % low income households, % immigrants, % rented dwellings • degree of urbanization (based on address density)

10. Variables • Dependent: • Wish to leave the neighbourhood (no wish=0; wish=1). • 18,7% of the sample has the wish to leave the neighbourhood. • Independent: • Individual and household characteristics • Dwelling characteristics • Neighbourhood characteristics • Interaction terms between individual characteristics and neighbourhood characteristics

11. Method • Because some characteristics are on individual level and others are on neighbourhood level, we have a multilevel structure in the data. • Logistic multilevel regression with cross-level interactions • level 1 = respondent • level 2 = neighbourhood • In formula: f(πij) = β0 + β1xij + β2zj+ β3xijzj + eij+ u0j

12. Multilevel logistic regression of the wish to leave the neighbourhood (N = 62,144)

13. Estimated probability to have a moving wish by ethnic background; by percentage of people from ethnic minorities in the neighbourhood

14. Estimated probability to have a moving wish for renters and homeowners; by percentage of rental dwellings in the neighbourhood

15. Conclusion • Main effect hypothesis is partly confirmed: • People are more likely to have a wish to move when there are more rented dwellings and more immigrants in the neighbourhood. • Interaction-effect hypothesis fully confirmed: • Those with a low income, immigrants, and people in a rented dwelling are less likely to have the wish to leave when there are more low income households, immigrants, and rented dwellings in the neighbourhood. • The effects are relatively small...... BUT they suggest that segregation comes about partly through individual preferences regarding population composition in the neighbourhood.

16. Discussion • Why do people want to leave concentration neighbourhoods? • Do they not feel at ease among people who are different from themselves? Or do they disapprove of people with different characteristics than their own? • Or is it that the presence of (mainly) ethnic minorities correlates with other elements in the neighbourhood that are not measured in our data? • Results cast doubt on the success of mixed tenure policies and other policies aimed at mixing populations at the neighbourhood level…. People are free to move! • Present Netherlands housing market is tight and people do not have many options. But as the housing market relaxes, people will have more choice in where to live and this will probably result in more segregation.