34 th IAEE International Conference Institutions, Efficiency and Evolving Energy Technologies

1. 34th IAEE International Conference Institutions, Efficiency and Evolving Energy Technologies ACTUAL AND EXPECTED TRENDS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN LITHUANIA Inga Konstantinaviciute Vaclovas Miskinis, Dalius Tarvydas, Viktorija Bobinaite Stockholm,19-23June 2011

2. Content of presentation • Introduction • Recent changes in GDP and energy consumption • Current status and trends of GHG emissions • Methodology of performed analysis and forecast of • GHG emissions by 2020

3. Area: 65.2 km² (450.3 km²Sweden) Population: 3329 thousand (9341 thousandSweden) GDP reduction in 2009: 14.7 (5.3% Sweden) GDP growth in 2010: 1.3% (5.7% Sweden) GDP per capita 2010, EUR: 8300 (37000Sweden) In 2009, PPS 12200 (28000 Sweden) LITHUANIA LITHUANIA Latvia Lithuania Russia (Kaliningrad region) Poland Belarus

4. 2. Recent changes in GDP and energy consumption in Lithuania

5. Changes in GDP and energy consumption

6. Electricity production and consumption Electricity export in 2003 – 7.5 TWh, import in 2010 – 6 TWh.

7. Structure of primary energy consumption 2009 2010 In 2010 Lithuania become very dependent on electricity import.

8. 3. Current status and trends of GHG emissions

9. Dynamics of GHG emissions in Lithuania Level of GHG emissions in 2000 was 2.6 times lower compare with 1990 level. However, since 2000 air pollution started to increase (in 2009 it was by 11.5% higher than in 2000).

10. GDPand GHG emissions indexes In 2009, the total GHG emissions amounted only 43.5% of 1990 level.

11. GDPand GHG emissions indexes in sectors of economy Changes in indexes of GHG in various sectors during the period 1990-2009 are very different. Volume of GHG emissions from waste management exceeded 1990 level by 5%, emissions from industrial processes are lower by 11%, and emissions in the transport sector – by 22%. Emissions from activities in agriculture and in energy sector decreased correspondingly to 42 and 38% from the 1990 level. The largest reduction was from fuel combustion in other sectors – in 2009 their index was equal to 19% from the 1990 level.

12. Structure of GHG emissions During 1990-2009 there were significant changes not only in amounts of GHG emissions but sectoral structure of emissions changed rapidly as well. For example share of GHG from industrial processes increased from 8.5% in 1990 to 20.4% in 2008.

13. Changes of GHG emissions indexes in the Baltic States

14. Structure of GHG emissions in 2008 Structure of GHG emissions by sectors in the Baltic States and on average in the EU-27 is very different.

15. GHG emissions per capita in 2008 GHG emissions per capita in Lithuania are by 37.3% lower than on average in the EU-27.

16. 4. Methodology of performed analysis and forecast of GHG emissions by 2020

17. The major factors influencing future trends The national economy after striking decline will recover and foreseen growth of GDP by about 4.5% on average during the period 2011-2020 will followed by increase of energy demand and corresponding growth of GHG emissions. Major part of electricity generation will come from fossil fuels (mostly natural gas). Increasing contribution of RES into primary energy balance and in particular into balance of district heating systems will stimulate mitigation of climate change. Increase of GHG emissions from industrial processes, agriculture and waste management will be moderate due to implementation of foreseen measures directed to reduction of emissions.

18. Methodological guidelines for GHG emissions projections • Detailed analysis of the energy sector development was performed taking into consideration requirements of the EU Directive 2009/28/EC. • Long-term planning of the energy sector development consists from two stages: • the energy demand forecasting by energy forms and branches of the national economy applying the econometric model; • optimization of the energy sector development scenarios applying the MESSAGE model.

19. Forecast of final energy demand • Two scenarios of the final energy demand were elaborated according to scenarios of the long-term economic development applied in the National Energy Strategy-2007. • Final energy demand: • in the basic scenario will increase on average by 2.3% per annum until 2020; • in the scenario of higher efficiency will increase on average by 1.9% per annum until 2020.

20. Forecast of final energy demand +28% Final energy +23% Basic scenario Electricity +33% -3% Heat

21. Deployment of renewable energy sources

22. Contribution of electricity from RES The largest increase of electricity generation from RES is foreseen from power plants using biomass.

23. Foreseen GHG emissions in Lithuania

24. Conclusions • Closure of Ignalina NPP by the end of 2009 was important factor, which caused significant changes in structure of electricity generation, but closure of NPP did not have impact on consequently growth of emissions. Significant reduction of economic activities due to global economic recession was the main factor which had direct impact on GHG reduction in 2009. • Lithuanian long-term economy development could be defined with some degree of uncertainty due to impact of various internal and external factors. Trends in the energy sector depend very much on economic development, prices of imported energy resources, commissioning of new nuclear power plant, energy security supply issues and other factors. Therefore different ways of energy sectors development will have impact on the level of air pollution. • Total GHG emissions in Lithuania in any case will not exceed the 1990 level. • In 2020, total amount of GHG will not exceed 70% from 1990. In the case of high RES contribution mitigation of climate change would be more valuable in Lithuania.

25. Thank you very much for your attention! • Inga Konstantinavičiūtė, LEI • inga@mail.lei.lt