Second International Conference on Early Warning (EWC-II) Bonn, 16-18 October 2003

1. Second International Conference on Early Warning (EWC-II)Bonn, 16-18 October 2003 Integrating Early Warning in Disaster Preparedness and Response in MoroccoMohamed JALILhydraumet@casanet.net.ma

2. VULNERABILITY OF MOROCCO TO HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

3. Vulnerability key-factors • Climate • Geomophology • Population and economy

4. Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy • Characterised by variability • Long-term variability • Short-time variability • Space variability • Dominated by the aridity

5. Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy • Contrasted relief • Mountains (Atlas Range, Rif heights) • Coastal and west inland plains • Saharan plateaux • Diversified local geography

6. Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy • Population • 30 millions with a growth rate 1.7% • 56% live in urban area (the bulk in littoral) • 19% live below national poverty threshold • Economy • Diversified but still dominated by agriculture

7. Hydrometeorological hazards The most remarkable and severe hazards hitting Morocco are DROUGHT and FLOODS, but sometimes OTHER hydrometeorological events can also become extreme and hazardous

8. Hydrometeorological hazards Drought FloodsOthers • Structural stress • The droughts are becoming more prolonged • Severe impact on agriculture and water res. • Its impact is exacerbated in rural areas • Rainfed agriculture (traditional farming and livestock rearing)

9. Hydrometeorological hazards DroughtFloodsOthers • Flooding is being a recurrent hazard • Flash floods caused by convective storms • Steady floods caused by heavy rain • Their impact is emphasised by: • Local topography • Land use change • high population density (urban and suburban areas)

10. Hydrometeorological hazards DroughtFloodsOthers Meteorological conditions also play key role in the outbreak of other natural extreme events

11. EW, DISATSERS PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:flooding and drought cases

12. Flooding • Flood Warning • Flood preparedness • Flood response

13. Observing networks: hydrometeorological stations, remote sensing data, aerologic data FORCASTING MODELS Warning bulletins

14. Flooding hazards WarningPreparedness and response • Monitoring system • Meteorological ground-based stations • Hydrological measuring stations • Radio-sounding • Radar network • Satellite data and imagery

15. Flooding hazards WarningPreparedness and response • Forecasts • Medium range forecast • Synoptical range forecast by using ALADIN model outputs • Short and Very Short range forecast improved by using radar echo

16. Flooding hazards WarningPreparedness and response • Warning bulletins • Pre-alert bulletins • Alert bulletins (BMS, BMA)

17. Flooding hazards WarningPreparedness and response • Long term activities • Decentralisation of water planning governmental activity • Hazard Reduction Programs using engineering measures (protective infrastructure) • Mitigation measures (hydraulic domain regulations, afforestation, sewage master-plans, etc.)

18. Flooding hazards WarningPreparedness and response • Short term activities • Real-time following up of the hydromet situation using the guidelines of the Ministry of Equipment • ORSEC (Organisation des Secours Relief Organisation) plans by a committee co-ordinated by the Prefecture

19. Practical Guidelines for rainfall and flood disasters management • Booklet issued and regularly updated by the Ministry of Equipment. The key elements are: • The organisation of material and human resources involved (duty personal, technicians, telecommunications) • The organisation of the monitoring bureau (Command Post) • Forecasting organisation (weather bulletins, alerts thresholds, warning management) • Organisation and management of the intervention plan and • Intervention Assessment.

20. Flooding hazards WarningPreparedness and response • After-disaster management • Relief and public assistance organisation • Socio-economic assessment of the hazard impact

21. Drought • Drought Warning • Drought preparedness and response

22. Drought WarningPreparedness and response • Rainfall seasonal prediction programme • Long term prediction of the precipitation • Climate modelling using the statistical correlation between the precipitation and the global climate patterns

23. Drought WarningPreparedness and response • Al Masifa project • Implemented in partnership with Météo_France, ONM (Algeria) and INM (Tunisia) with financial support from the EC • Prediction of the “rainfall state”( dry, normal, wet)using the relationship between SST anomalies and regional precipitation

24. Drought WarningPreparedness and response • Al Moubarak project • An ongoing programme developed with Oklahoma university • Climate modelling using the statistical correlation between the precipitation and the global climate patterns (NAO)

25. Drought WarningPreparedness and response • Institutional arrangements • Conseil Supérieur de l’Eau et du Climat (High Council of Water and Climate), • Decentralisation of water planning (water agencies) • Laws and regulations (law on water, environmental impact)

26. Drought WarningPreparedness and response • Mitigation and adaptation programmes • Investment incentive for the modernisation of irrigation methods and equipment • Agronomic research • Rural populations water supply programme • Drought insurance

27. CONSTRAINTS AND DIFFICULTIES

28. Prohibitive cost of the EWS and the response measures • Geographical constraints making it difficult to deal with the whole territory • Weak co-ordination at the institutional level • Lack in public awareness and education • Lack in human capabilities although Morocco has good skilled engineers (Met., Hydraulics, agriculture, etc.), the EW management capacities are still weak.

29. Thank you for your kindest attention