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Sea A SIA CHARTERERS’ FORUM Singapore 2 April 2007. Peter M. Swift INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington. CHARTERERS’ FORUM. OIL SHIPPING Fleet development Chartering today Future demand ?. Tanker fleet development. m dwt. No. Assumptions for period until 2009:
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SeaASIACHARTERERS’ FORUMSingapore2 April 2007 Peter M. Swift INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington
CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Fleet development Chartering today Future demand ?
Tanker fleet development m dwt No Assumptions for period until 2009: Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007 Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)
Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt) 80 70 1993 and earlier sizes except 60 Handy VLCCs were defined differently Chem/Spec) 50 Panamaxes 40 Aframaxes 30 Suezmaxes VLCCs 20 10 0 1990 2006 2000 1998 2001 1988 1989 1991 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2002 2003 2004 1996 1993 2005
Demolition: slowed in recent years(mdwt) 30 Others/NK Bangladesh 25 Pakistan India 20 Taiwan 15 Korea China 10 5 0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt) 16 14 12 10 8 6 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Years
Double-hull percentage rising steadily 100 15 18 21 24 27 32 33 % dwt share* : 80 41 49 SH/DB/DS 78 60 94 DH 85 82 40 79 76 * Assumes 73 68 67 phase out 59 51 according to 20 regulations 22 (rounded 6 upwards, 25 0 years after 2010 1991 1997 End 06 End 10 End 03 End 04 End 05 End 07 End 08 End 09 End 02 . %
(Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out- an “uncertainty” post 2010 70 MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH 60 until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 50 OPA90 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010. DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015
CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Chartering today
Oil import by VLCCs - share of double hull % 100 90 80 70 Average 60 50 40 30 Europe US Atlantic 20 Far East Others 10 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source : Fearnleys
Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys
Oil import by Aframaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys
Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys
Oil export by Aframaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys
Period contracts of one year and above No. *Projection 2007: 305 contracts Source: INTERTAKO
CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Future demand ?
CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Tonnage Supply & Demand Forecasts Average Annual Growth 2007-2009 Source: McQuilling Brokerage Partners
THANK YOU For more information, please visit: www.intertanko.com www.shippingfacts.com www.maritimefoundation.com INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington